For Tackling Covid-19, Sweden Is Not The Model To Follow For Even The Western Countries Let Alone India

Since the Covid-19 pandemic, caused by the novel coronavirus, began ravaging the countries across the world two months ago, the commentariat has showered praises on many countries for doing a good job at tackling the crisis. In India, we have seen op-eds hailing various countries as models for India to follow - South Korean model of testing, Singapore model of strict lockdown, Taiwan model of early restrictions, German model of public healthcare, United States model of stimulus package, etc.

Now, some have come up with a new one — the Sweden model. Sweden is one of the rare countries which hasn’t put strict lockdown measures in place to fight Covid-19. In fact, restaurants, schools and workplaces remain open even as the number of deaths has crossed 2,500 very quickly. What the country is trying to do is achieve herd immunity which involves infecting enough number of people so that a majority of the country’s population becomes immune to the virus and can go to work rather than wait for the vaccine which, by some accounts, many take a year or more.

The United Kingdom also entertained the idea of herd immunity before developing cold feet as the number of deaths started rising at alarming levels. No wonder, it has officially the highest mortality rate in the world at 15 per cent.

Now Sweden is on the same trajectory. And many are recommending it as the model to follow. But the truth is it can’t be a model for even the western countries, let alone India.

First, let’s see how Sweden has fared compared to its other Nordic neighbours.

At least 2,854 people have died in Sweden compared to 503 in Denmark, 246 in Finland and 215 in Norway. And this when Denmark has more than five times the population density than Sweden (Finland and Norway is on almost same level as Sweden).

See the death trajectory below to understand how the virus has spread very differently in these four countries.

Second, Sweden not only comes out really bad when compared to countries with similar levels of development and population density (and important factor in spread of virus) but it’s performance vis a vis other western countries is also terrible.

In the graph below, one can see the number of deaths in Sweden compared to other worst-hit western countries normalised for population.

Sweden has recorded 268 deaths per million people while the same figure for the United States and Germany is 209 and 84 respectively. And the US population is relatively much less healthy given high obesity and heart diseases prevalent there. France, Italy and Spain have a higher number of deaths per million people but they have flattened the curve to a good extent which Sweden doesn’t seem to be doing.

Additionally, it is also pertinent to note that population density in Sweden is 25 per sq km. While the same figure for Italy, Spain, UK, France, US, Germany is 206, 91. 274, 122, 36, 232 respectively - all much higher than Sweden.

Just to put things in perspective, population density in India is 464 per sq km - 18 times more than in Sweden.

Third, and this fact alone should suffice for other countries to reject the Sweden model, more than half of Sweden’s population lives in one-person households. That means that not only the spreading of the virus is extremely difficult but also that homes can themselves play as quarantine centres for half of the population. And given decent public health infrastructure in Nordic countries, the likelihood of overflowing hospitals will be difficult compared to elsewhere.

Sweden is very unique in terms of culture, population density, people’s attitudes towards the government and other people, etc. The model it is following may or may not work — time will tell — but the cost in terms of death is really high in Sweden. And the benefits out of it are not certain.

Sweden’s central bank, the Riksbank, estimates that the gross domestic product may contract by 6.9 per cent (scenario 1) or 9.7 per cent (scenario 2) in 2020. This is similar to projections in other European countries.

Even without the government enforcing lockdowns, it is not necessary that people will still go out. They themselves can self-regulate themselves and quarantine at home. Google mobility data does point towards this trend as shown below.

Of course, no one country has any best way to tackle the pandemic given how it is even affecting any two neighbouring countries in very different ways.

The novel virus is highly unpredictable and we have no idea about how it can impact a country in terms of not just mortality but also long-lasting health effects on the infected. So, it’s better to be safe than sorry.

Sweden is playing Russian Roulette. And it may survive. But the lesson will always remain the same: never play Russian Roulette. Certainly not with the lives and health of millions of people.