How Discerning Readers Can Defeat The Designs Of Alarmists And Apologists 

India has never been short of political pundits and economic gurus. In sync with the growing democratic maturity and economic prosperity, their numbers have proliferated. They dole out facts and opinions at a scale which is akin to the production capabilities of Chinese companies. Such population of facts and opinions is healthy and desirable to a large extent. What is rather undesirable, however, is the extreme stand often taken by the readers.

It is common understanding among analysts, particularly policy analysts, that facts hide more than they reveal. With this understanding, it is recommended that we exercise balance and restraint as readers with regard to whatever we consume. This latent understanding deserves special mention in the present times.

A couple of weeks ago an article was written by a distinguished parliamentarian and former finance minister denouncing the state of economic affairs in India. Facts were limited to less than a couple of lines and the ones mentioned were cherry picked to suit the narrative. In the past three years, we have seen very few articles on economic affairs being shared so widely on social media in a short span of a couple of hours. This article is representative of the op-eds claiming that India is heading towards an economic nosedive. Suddenly India woke up to the fault-lines in its economy.

The Opposition leaders have been trying their bit with better analysis and stronger battery of statistics to make an impression but they have failed miserably to arouse similar rabble. Clearly, the messenger was more important than the message – a political rhetoric which achieved its purpose in entirety. The alarmists had a field day. The other most recent example of such a pessimistic stoking of emotions on economic affairs happened in 2012. This is not to say that they were confounded or misplaced; but the temperatures ran high and made enough noise to cause the damage.

Among this cacophony, balance and restraint in messages, rhetoric and facts are in extreme short supply. Few analysts and even fewer public leaders are measuring their messages against these two parameters. As a young Indian who is an active stakeholder in the country’s economy, it is disheartening to witness the terrible impact such alarmist concerns can lead to. Like 2012, this could lead to policy inertia and overall gloom for India's prospects. The alarmists don’t understand that they are feeding the imaginary devil – economic slowdown in India. A positive comment from heads of global MNCs and multilateral institutions may provide momentary respite – but this too is indicative that we as readers vacillate and exercise limited caution.

Where is the respite from such vacillation and fog of rhetoric and facts? As a student of market and policy, we have been trained to judiciously spruce our analysis with "bottomed out", "peaked out", "aberration", "appropriate time series", "relative performance”, “appropriate basket of peers", "right mix of ratios" and other such terms to make the narrative fit the message. This trains us to appreciate the value of not jumping to conclusions before we assess the messenger and absorb their message. For every fact against economic pessimism, one can come up with numerous facts on continued robust growth. In essence, the way facts and rhetoric are fed can never help practise balance and restraint, but how we imbibe them can be filtered through these two funnels. It is only when such self-filtering is practised, readers and policy makers both can bring valuable nuance to the policy discourse and everyday discussions.

It would be an anti-climax if this article presents facts on sustained economic growth to counter the pessimism. The only way to find sense among the din is through assessment of fundamentals peppered with right set of facts. Macroeconomic analysis vehemently opposes the view that India is in a tailspin, a deceleration is in the offing and there will be an economic crisis. However, can we do better with more reforms and smoother implementation of such reforms? Yes. Can we aspire to surpass and sustain 7-8 per cent plus rates for few years before we target double digit growth? Yes. Is the fear and gloom overstretched? Yes. Thus, one finds the rare commodities of balance and restraint useful as they provide the much-desired objectivity and resilience, but both of which are denied by alarmists and apologists.

In cherry-picking facts and providing extreme views, the economic gurus and political pundits do not belie their profession. However, as readers, we fail in our duty and assessment when we allow ourselves to be carried away with every such article and opinion. We should read more, explore contra opinions, keep the fundamentals handy, believe in our judicious, even if selective, absorption of facts and op-eds and lastly, use balance and restraint in generous amounts before we pass our judgement.

Devashish Dhar, Public Policy Specialist, NITI Aayog (Views expressed by the author are personal)