Transport Of The Future: Why Hyperloop Is Still A Long Way Off

All the talk about travel of future began when Elon Musk shared a white paper on Hyperloop Alpha in August 2013. In it, Musk talked about developing a 350 miles (563 kilometre) long tube from Los Angeles to San Francisco with a special environment inside, in which the capsules (or pods, what he calls those vehicles) will travel at an almost sonic speed of one mach – 760 mph or 1220 kmph. This hyperloop will reduce the travel time from 6 hours by motorcars or 1.5 hours by airplanes to a mere 30 minutes. Further the cost of travel will reduce from a $100 (Rs 6,500) by aeroplane to mere $20 (Rs 1,300). This proposed concept took the transportation industry across the globe by storm. Within the next one year, many start-up firms emerged (including Hyperloop One, Hyperloop Transportation Technologies, Arrivo, etc.) around the proposed concept, taking up the charge to build the travel of future into reality.

In September 2017, the Andhra Pradesh government junked the tried and tested metro project in Vijayawada and signed up a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Hyperloop Transportation Technologies for introducing the futuristic hyperloop in the capital city of Amrawati. The proposed hyperloop will connect the city of Vijayawada and Amrawati, and will cover the distance of 25 kms in just 5 minutes. However, the cost of the project is yet to be disclosed.

On 22 September 2017, according to Denver Post, the transportation department of Colorado has also agreed to develop a hyperloop connecting Cheyenne, Denver and Pueblo with Vail. The project is expected to cost $24 billion (Rs 1.56 lakh crore) extending 576 kms. With the physical, economical and commercial viability of hyperloop are yet to be proven, the question is, will the hyperloop be an instant reality or transport of future?

In his whitepaper, Musk charted out the plan at a cost of $6 billion for hyperloop capable of moving around 15 million people per year between Los Angeles and San Francisco at a speed of 760 mph. This when amortised for 20 years, gives an approximate ticket price of $20 (Rs 1,300). However, as per the current trends seen in the recently proposed project in Colorado, the project seems to be costing $24 billion for almost the same length, which makes the ticket price at almost $80 (Rs 5,200). This is almost four times what Musk arrived at. Also, as per Arabian Business, the hyperloop from Abu Dhabi to Dubai, having a length of 93 miles, has a whooping cost of $5 billion, which is in lines with the Colorado project.

Most recently, businessman Richard Branson announced that a deal has been struck with the government of Maharashtra for construction of a hyperloop route linking Mumbai to Pune, a distance of 150 kms, which will reduce the time of travel from 3 hours to just under 25 minutes. It will have a capacity of 150 million passenger trips per year and will be completed in approximately six to seven years. However, no official announcement was made towards the cost of the project, but it was stated that it will be well in range of airfare. If a simple interpolation of cost is done in line with the Colorado project or with Abu Dhabi to Dubai route, it can be said that the given project may cost approximately $5 billion or Rs 33,000 crore.

However, if its capacity is taken as per the white paper, then 150 million capacity sounds highly exaggerated. Even if the capacity is considered, which was 15 million for 350 miles at a speed of 760 mph in white paper, it will be very less in the case as due to lesser speed and distance, the continuum of pods travelling at a gap of 10 minutes will be lesser as compared to the conditions in white paper, say around 8-10 million at maximum. And if this capacity is amortised for 20 years with an 80 per cent capacity, the price per head arrives to be approximately Rs 2,000-2,500 with various cost of operation and management or capital not considered. Seeing these trends, it can clearly be said that what Musk proposed may be technologically viable, but financially, it is going to be almost double the cost of high-speed rail considering all the cost of finances.

Many start-ups have come up and started to test the idea of a low pressure tube with capsules supported on air cushion being accelerated or decelerated by magnetic linear accelerators. Hyperloop One seems to be at the forefront. They have conducted three tests – the first on 12 May 2017, second on 2 August 2017 and the third on 15 December 2017, all in Nevada desert.

From the tests conducted by Hyperloop One, it can be seen that they have successfully carried out test running for only a few metres and have achieved a maximum speed of approximately 240 mph. Even the pod designed by SpaceX has been tested only up to a speed of 220 mph. But the required speed of the proposed project is 760 mph. Further, the low pressure tube has only been tested for up to 437 metres. Tube with low pressure running for miles with turns and gradients are yet to be tested and established as safe. Even the case of leak in air pressure in the tube and its effects needs to be tested. Also, as claimed, effect of earthquake, temperature, thermal expansion or other adverse situations are yet to be tested. And the list of so many ‘things to be done’ goes on.

With so many tests/hypothesis yet to be proven, it seems it is too early to say that the hyperloop mode of transportation is the new thing and ready to be vetted against high speed rail mode of transport. However, if the current questions are answered, it can revolutionise the global transportation industry.

Also Read:

Mumbai To Pune In 30 Minutes: Here’s How The Hyperloop Promises That