Allan Lichtman: The Man Who Got It Right. . .Again  

Prof Allan Lichtman, professor of History at American University has predicted the results of all presidential elections in America correctly since 1984. This time, he had predicted a victory for Donald Trump.

And he keeps his record of correct predictions intact.

However, if one goes by Lichtman’s approach then the election result is more a rejection of President Obama and the Democratic party than an approval for Trump.

As Lichtman says here to CBS, presidential elections are “not decided by the turns of the campaigns, the speeches, the debates, the fundraising. Rather, presidential elections are fundamentally referenda on the performance of the party holding the White House. If that performance is good enough, they get four more years. If it’s not, they’re turned out and the challenging part wins.”

Lichtman bases his prediction on 13 parametres. These he lists as: “(1) incumbent-party mandate, (2) incumbency, (3) third party, (4) short-term economy, (5) long-term economy, (6) nomination contest, (7) policy change, (8) scandal, (9) social unrest, (10) foreign or military success, (11) foreign or military failure, (12) incumbent charisma, and (13) challenge charisma.” Based on his reading of these parametres, he had predicted a Trump triumph.

Now, with an actual Trump victory, maybe Lichtman’s ideas can be used to assess the Obama legacy and its impact on this presidential election.