Here’s a numerical analysis to determine if the BJP will be able to pass the bill in Rajya Sabha
The Citizenship Amendment Bill was tabled in the Rajya Sabha today (11 December) by Home Minister Amit Shah for discussion and subsequent voting.
The bill on Monday (9 December) had sailed through the Lok Sabha thanks to a simple majority which the party enjoys in the lower house. The bill was supported by a total of 311 MPs while 80 opposed it.
While BJP enjoys a majority in the Lok Sabha the story is quite different in the Rajya Sabha where a resolute opposition would be waiting, after having to lick its wounds in the Lok Sabha.
So the biggest question on many people’s minds right now, is whether the BJP would be able to amass the numbers required to pass the bill.
Numerical Dynamics In Rajya Sabha
The Rajya Sabha has a total of 245 seats out of which five are vacant, which brings the effective strength down to 240. The majority mark - also known as the magic number thus stands at 121.
The BJP on its own has 83 seats, thus it requires 38 more MPs to support the bill. It will first look towards its NDA allies for support, chiefly the AIADMK with 11 MPs, Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) with 3 MPs and the JD(U) with 6 MPs.
AIADMK and the SAD have already openly backed the bill, and the JD(U) too is expected to follow suit despite grumbling among a section of its leaders. Thus tallying all the NDA allies - big and small the number is expected to stand at 108.
The BJP has received a boost from Odisha’s ruling BJD which has chosen to publicly back the bill. The Naveen Patnaik led party has a total of seven MPs. The non-NDA parties which supported the bill in the Lok Sabha also include the TDP and YSRCP which have a total of 2 MPs each.
This takes the support tally to 119 and the BJP is also expected to get the support of three nominated MPs and four independents. This takes the final tally to 126, comfortably above the majority mark.
The number might increase to 129 if the Shiv Sena decides to support it. But the Uddhav Thackeray led party has been hinting at taking a u-turn after backing it in the Lok Sabha, following the displeasure of Congress high-command.