A Year After, Peace Prevails In Doklam As China Keeps Off The Plateau

A year after the tense, 73-day standoff between Indian and Chinese troops at Doklam in Bhutan, all is quiet at the 89 square kilometre plateau that sits at an average elevation of 14,000 feet. The standoff was triggered by Chinese moves to construct a road to and through the plateau, which the Chinese call Donglang and claim it as its own. The standoff ended on 28 August last year after China backed down and withdrew to Chumbi Valley.

There are no signs of China planning to resume construction of that road or foraying into Doklam to assert its claims over it. Since the standoff ended, Chinese troops have scrupulously kept to their side of the Line of Actual Control (LAC). However, China’s frenetic buildup of its military muscle in Tibet continues. India, too, has not been sitting idle and has not only shored up its defences and capabilities, but also gone in for massive capacity-building of the Royal Bhutan Army.

A strong contingent of the Royal Bhutan Army (RBA), backed by the Indian Army that has a sizeable presence in the Himalayan kingdom in the form of the Indian Military Training Team (IMTRAT) that trains the RBA, guards Doklam. “It will be impossible for China to enter Doklam now. Vigil and Army presence in the area has been stepped up massively,” said a senior Indian Army officer serving in IMTRAT. Apart from eyes on the ground, round-the-clock satellite surveillance on the entire area, including Chumbi Valley where thousands of Chinese troops and military hardware are stationed, has been activated.

There has been, say Indian Army officers, a very positive fallout of the Doklam standoff. “The Chinese army treats us with a lot of respect now. The change in the attitude of the Chinese towards us is noticeable. Earlier, they would often speak rudely to us at border meetings, especially when we used to complain about transgressions by their troops. But now, they listen to us and try to appreciate our point of view. They now know we (the Indians) are no pushovers,” said a senior army officer posted at the Black Cats Division that guards the international border in Sikkim.

This has been the experience of a high-ranking Army officer posted at Tawang in Arunachal Pradesh. “Since the Doklam standoff, the number of transgressions by the Chinese into our territory has come down drastically. Earlier, when they would violate the border and enter our territory, they used to be aggressive and extremely abusive, use foul language (in Mandarin, of course) and make obscene gestures when confronted by us. They don’t do such things anymore and, when we tell them that they are in Indian territory, they return to their side of the border. There have been some instances when they have even offered cigarettes and chocolates to our troops that went to stop their incursions. At border meetings (between senior Indian Army and People’s Liberation Army officers), the Chinese side is much more respectful than what they used to be. At many such meetings before the Doklam standoff, they would very rudely and aggressively repeat their claims on Indian territory, tell us we were intruders and ask us to vacate their territory and then end the meeting. From the earlier diatribes at such meetings, we now have dialogue, which is often very cordial,” said the officer.

But beyond the smiles, the Chinese are building up their military muscle in Tibet. The Chinese have expanded the military airfields at Shigatse and Lhasa and stationed additional fighter jets as well as helicopters there. Stratfor reports that the Chinese have deployed KJ-500 airborne early warning and command aircraft, components of the HQ-9 long-range surface-to-air missile system and Soar Dragon unmanned aerial vehicles at Shigatse. A new runaway was constructed at the Shigatse base in mid-December, nine aircraft aprons measuring 41 metres by 70 metres were built along the main taxiway and eight helipads were set up in the northeast corner of the airfield. “This construction, along with the deployment of new equipment in greater numbers, highlights how China has undertaken a serious effort to improve its capabilities close to the LAC,” says the Stratfor report. The Shigatse air base is 225 kilometres from Doklam plateau. The Chinese have also deployed additional J-10 and J-11 fighter aircraft, their KJ-500 airborne early warning and command aircraft and Mi-171 helicopters at Lhasa.

But, say defence experts, the elevation of these two Chinese air bases in Tibet limits their capabilities. The Lhasa air base is at 11,700 feet and the Shigatse air base is at 12,400 feet. “Fighter jets cannot take off from airfields at such heights with adequate payloads (missiles) and can’t even fill their fuel tanks to capacity. These constraints severely impact their effectiveness and strike capabilities,” said a senior Indian Air Force (IAF) officer stationed at the Hasimara Air Force base, a major IAF station located in the strategically important chicken's neck (also known as the Siliguri corridor) that connects Northeast India with the rest of the country. With limited fuel and payload, fighter aircraft taking off from those two Chinese air bases will not be able to stay in air for long and will also not be able to carry an optimum number of missiles.

India has also been upgrading its Hasimara base and the one at Bagdogra. The new Sukhoi 30 MKI fighter jets have been stationed at Hasimara, and the latest Rafale jets will also be stationed at this base. Infrastructure at both Hasimara and Bagdogra, including signalling, surveillance and early warning systems, has been upgraded. The latest fighter aircraft and combat helicopters have been stationed at Bagdogra, which is 97 km from Doklam. Hasimara is 77 km from Doklam. Not only are these two IAF bases closer to Doklam than the Chinese air force bases, the fighter jets and combat helicopters taking off from the two IAF bases have much higher payload capacities. These two IAF stations are being equipped with the latest missiles and missile-defence systems.

On the ground, while China is adding more boots to the already heavily-militarised Chumbi Valley, it has also stationed armoured units there. But, say Indian Army officers, China suffers from a disadvantage here too. “Chumbi Valley, which is shaped like a dagger is flanked by Sikkim to its west and Bhutan to its east. The high grounds and ridges overlooking the Chumbi Valley are occupied by the Indian Army (in Sikkim) and by the RBA (backed by the Indian Army) in Bhutan. We can even look down and see with our field glasses what the Chinese are doing in Chumbi Valley. The Chinese military assets in Chumbi Valley are within range of our artillery,” said a senior Army officer stationed at the 33 Corps headquarters at Sukna near Siliguri. The 33 Corps is responsible for the defence of that part of the country bordering China and Bangladesh.

The Indian Army has also stepped up deployment of additional assets and upgrading military hardware of the mountain divisions based at Binnaguri, Kalimpong and Gangtok (under the 33 Corps). The RBA is also being given a lot of equipment - artillery, transport, signalling, surveillance etc - to enhance its capabilities. The IMTRAT has its hands full training the RBA to handle all the advance, state-of-the-art military hardware India is providing its neighbour. “We can safely say that we (the Indian Army and IAF as well as the RBA) are fully geared up to meet any eventuality and ward off any threat,” said the officer at the 33 Corps headquarters.

Despite the continuing Chinese bravado - one example is this statement by the Chinese envoy three months ago that India should have learnt its lessons from Doklam - it is the Chinese who have actually learnt a lesson. “The Chinese had expected India to back down during the Doklam standoff under pressure. But the fact that India stood its ground, took the Chinese by surprise. And the manner in which India kept its cool while the Chinese displayed a lot of ugly belligerence enhanced India’s image at the global stage and showed China in a very poor light. China seems to have not only learnt its lessons, but developed a grudging respect for India. This is evident in the quality and cordiality of interactions between the political leadership of the two countries and between Indian and Chinese diplomats. Since Doklam, the Chinese have been talking of settling disputes amicably through dialogue. That has been India’s position all along,” said a retired Indian Foreign Service (IFS) officer who was posted in China a decade ago and is associated with a prominent Indian think-tank.

And in Doklam, buffeted by icy winds and lashed by torrential showers now, the situation is quite like what it was in end-August last year after the Chinese retreated. The Chinese can be seen from Doklam building roads, bunkers, barracks and military facilities - but scrupulously on Chinese, or rather on Tibetan, territory. There is no aggression on the part of the Chinese, and Indian Army officers say that even the Chinese field guns no longer point towards the RBA positions at Doklam. But then, they add, there is no trusting the dragon and, hence, no letting one’s guard down.

Also read:

New Delhi’s Intervention In Doklam Is In The Interests Of Both India And Bhutan
Despite Breathing Fire, The Dragon Knows It Cannot Beat India Back From Doklam
Post-Doklam, India Needs To Concentrate On Improving Links To And Within North-East India
India’s Foreign Policy Came Of Age In 2017
Border Standoff: Chinese Incursions Have A Much Deeper And Sinister Intent
Doklam Row: India’s Measured Poise Wins Against Wanton Chinese Aggression