Cong Has To Wait Intelligently, Shun Gimmicks In Short-Run 

The Indian National Congress (INC, or Congress) and its de facto leader, Rahul Gandhi, are perhaps at the lowest ebb of their political lives. Narendra Modi’s vision of Congress-mukt Bharat has already succeeded to a large extent, with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) making great political strides.

Does that mean that there is no future at all for the Congress party and its leader?

The party may appear to be sliding down the path of gradual irrelevance, but it would be foolhardy to discount its prospects in the ever-surprising electoral politics of India. Let me cite five reasons for why all is not lost for Congress yet:

1. No national political alternative to the BJP

The BJP is the pre-eminent political party in India at the moment. It is also likely to remain so in the short-to-medium term. While some regional parties have made progress in the country, Congress remains the only non-BJP party with a national, albeit diminishing, presence. So in the event of regional parties performing well in the parliamentary elections of 2019 or 2024, the Congress will be the party to bring them together on a common platform and harmonise their regional agendas with a unified national governance programme.

Parties such as the Samajwadi Party (SP), Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), All India Trinamool Congress (TMC), and Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) are not likely to ally with the BJP for their own reasons. None of them have also displayed any ability to grow beyond their traditional strongholds. Naturally, Congress becomes their only potential national-level ally.

The exact structure of the arrangement between Congress and the regional parties will, of course, depend on the strengths of the national-level party relative to the regional parties. If the regional parties dominate, the likely outcome will be a United Front-type of an arrangement, such as that seen in 1996-98. Otherwise, Congress will take the lead, like it did during the UPA term of 2004-14.

Congress would do well to take lessons from the highly successful role it played in the formation of the Mahagathbandhan in Bihar in 2015 and focus on taking advantage of every such opportunity that present itself.

2. Inevitable anti-incumbency in BJP strongholds

BJP has been dominating northern, central, and western India for a long time. It has been in power in Gujarat since 1995, and in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh since 2003. The party swept Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Himachal Pradesh, Haryana, Bihar, and Jharkhand in the 2014 parliamentary elections. The enduring popularity of Narendra Modi and the party’s model of good governance may carry the BJP through in 2019, but incumbency will definitely be a substantial factor in 2024.

The BJP may win some seats in southern and eastern India, however, that is unlikely to make up for losses elsewhere. Each potential loss for the BJP is an opportunity for the Congress to launch its comeback. It is the direct competitor in most states. Rahul Gandhi should lose no time in sorting out the party’s state-level leadership concerns and put himself and the party in a position to grow every time the BJP stumbles.

3. Age on Rahul’s Gandhi’s side

It may seem like Rahul Gandhi has been national politics for a long time, but he is still 45 years old and given the dominance of relatively elderly leaders in India, it is not very difficult to see Rahul playing an active role in politics for next two to three decades.

The last three long-serving prime ministers (PV Narasimha Rao, Atal Bihari Vajpayee, and Manmohan Singh) ascended to the top role in their seventies.

In this area, Rahul can learn from his family too. Indira Gandhi and Sonia Gandhi were not initially perceived as mass leaders when they joined electoral politics. However, both of them overcame their real and perceived weaknesses to become prominent mass leaders of the country. Rahul can certainly take a leaf out of their book.

Besides, Congress has other prominent leaders, such as Sachin Pilot and Jyotiraditya Scindia, who are younger than their BJP counterparts. So the age factor enables Congress to take advantage of anti-incumbency in BJP strongholds.

4. India’s electoral history

The Congress party and Rahul can take heart from the multiple examples of India’s electorate giving ‘conventional’ electoral expectations a thumbs down. The Congress itself was a beneficiary of this when India rejected BJP’s much-touted ‘India Shining’ campaign in 2004. Even in 2009, the Congress vanquished the opposition, significantly improving on the gains made in 2004.

Even state-level elections at other times in the past have shown how alliances of parties with complementary strengths can overcome the perceived strength of the opposition. A recent example is that of the 2015 state elections in Bihar. It was perceived as a contest too close to call, but eventually turned out to be one-sided.

Despite the presence of these opportunities for Congress and Rahul Gandhi, it is safe to say that scripting a national comeback will not be easy. Rather than focusing on the short term, the party leadership would do well to take measures to improve the party’s organisational strength, develop a long-term focus on different issues, bring clarity to their economic plans, and develop strong relationships with regional parties.

Congress should eschew short-term gimmicks, such as portraying Priyanka Gandhi as a Chief Minister candidate in UP, and instead focus on long-term revival. By partnering with regional parties, Congress may just be able to start that process and return to power.

Politics, sometimes, is about waiting intelligently.