Five Strategies To Scale Up: Which One Will Kejriwal Take?

It is no secret that Arvind Kejriwal wants to grow way beyond his current post of the Chief Minister of Delhi. What are the options for AAP along that route? 

In the recently concluded student union polls for the Delhi University, the student wing of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), Chhatra Yuva Sangharsh Samiti (CYSS), polled about 20% of the votes in a 4 cornered fight. CYSS candidates had the explicit campaign backing of AAP stalwarts, including the Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal himself – several posters had his face with the candidate name. Yet CYSS only managed third place for President (16.6% votes), second for Vice President (26%), and fourth for Secretary (14.7%) and Joint Secretary (18.3%).

Formed in November 2012, AAP gained quickly in popularity, forming a short lived government in Delhi after the December 2013 election. Kejriwal was billed as a Prime Minister candidate in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections where the party contested 432 seats. In an anti-climax, the party won only 4 seats, and all but 19 of its candidates – all in Delhi, Punjab and Chandigarh – lost their deposits in the election. The party made a big comeback in Delhi in 2015, winning 67 of the 70 assembly seats. Since then however, AAP has been besieged with a host of issues – senior leaders exiting, split in state units, tussle with Delhi Lieutenant Governor Najeeb Jung, governance problems in Delhi, issues of propriety, criminal complaints against several AAP MLAs, and a declining urban support base across India.

AAP was expected to return to its pan-India ambition, but thus far it has only taken a few small steps. The party made a few comments on the Bengaluru civic polls but did not contest. It briefly dabbled with a #AAPKiMumbai campaign in anticipation of the 2017 civic polls, but hasn’t signaled a definitive intent to contest. To make it worse, a Pew Research poll published on September 17th ranked Kejriwal behind the perennially coming-of-age Congress Vice President Rahul Gandhi in approval ratings.

Kejriwal is too aspirational an individual to be confined to the state of Delhi. So exactly how does he propose to scale AAP’s national presence? He can look back at Indian political history to choose a template or create one of his own.

Option 1 – The legacy dividend

In his book Breakout Nations, Ruchir Sharma, explaining the long reign of African National Congress in South Africa, writes – “The only similar situation I can think of is postcolonial India, where the Congress Party led the fight for the independence and traded off that achievement to remain in power from 1950 until 1977, with limited economic gain to show for it”.

The biggest electoral successes in post independence India have actually been a result of the incumbency advantage that Congress and the Left parties enjoyed. Congress won election after election and has stayed in power since 1947 for all but 14 years. Similarly, Left parties via Communist Party of India (CPI) to start off, and then later with Communist Party of India Marxist (CPIM), managed to stay relevant from 1952 (16 seats) to 2004 (60+ seats), also managing strong shows in Kerala, West Bengal and Tripura.

The Congress and the Left templates offer no help to AAP, except the learning from controlling the government machinery and building a long term supporting ecosystem of NGOs, media sympathizers, media owners and prominent TV personalities. In this limited sense, AAP has done well to take the lessons onboard – one of its earliest strategies has been to draw into its fold a clutch of media personalities and young, rising, independent Bollywood celebrities who keep the pressure on against the party rivals via social media and press interviews.

 Option 2 – Winning the ideology battle

Swatantra Party was the first non-Congress, ideology-based party which commanded a following and electoral presence in large parts of the country. Existing merely for 15 years from 1959 to 1974 under the leadership of C. Rajagopalachari, Minoo Masani, Piloo Mody, SV Raju, VP Menon, KM Munshi, and NG Ranga, the centre-right party won 18 seats in the 1962 Lok Sabha, following it up with a 44 seat haul in 1967. With 8.7% vote share, Swatantra emerged as the second largest party in the Lower House. In just 8 years, the party also dominated as the main opposition in Bihar, Rajasthan, Odisha and Gujarat. However, with several tall leaders exiting the political scene and left with only 8 seats in the 1971 Lok Sabha elections, the party merged with the Bharatiya Kranti Dal in 1974.

Swatantra did well as long as it stuck to its founding ideology. When in 1971, it tried to forge alliance with other anti-Congress parties, and conceded seats it had previously won, it lost out heavily. In the last 3 years, AAP has shown remarkable ideological malleability already in a bid to win over the immediate constituency and the next marginal vote bank. AAP can learn the limits of political hobnobbing from Swatantra, but with its support to the Bihar Mahagathbandhan with Nitish Kumar as the proxy, that is not likely to happen anytime soon.

Option 3 – Fighting the grassroots, long haul struggle

The Bharatiya Janta Party (BJP) is the only party post independence to create a near complete national footprint organically. The party came in existence in 1980 and from 2 seats in 1984, the constant chipping at the incremental vote saw the party win 282 seats in 2014 Lok Sabha election. BJP did have an advantage of a political legacy via Bharatiya Jan Sangh (BJS) and Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS). However, BJP has seen wins and defeats and over time has created a stable, loyal vote base across the country in the last 35 years. In 2014, when it attracted almost the entire anti incumbency vote, the party got 31% (39% for the National Democratic Alliance) vote share – a feat bettered only by Congress in previous elections.

BJP has had an ideal mix of influential top rung leadership with performing Chief Ministers. It has been hard work to expand in the South and in the East, and also dismantling the upper caste Hindu party label. It took BJP 35 years to emerge as the fulcrum of the political debate displacing Congress.

Can AAP match this patience and groundwork? Thus far, the party has been singularly dependent on Arvind Kejriwal’s personal charisma and image. It has managed to alienate other influential names like Prashant Bhushan, Yogendra Yadav, and Shazia Ilmi. Beyond the Bollywood and media personalities, the party has not attracted a single winnable leader anywhere in the country. While the party is sure to make a big dent in the Punjab assembly elections in 2016, perhaps even form a government of its own, can it produce the BJP style ground-up credible leadership options in enough number of states to make a difference in 2019? At this moment, this seems unlikely, but the good news for AAP is, it will get several chances to further its cause.

Option 4 – First among equals in alliances

Alliances are a necessary evil in the fragmented Indian politics. The first grand alliance win came in 1977, when Bharatiya Lok Dal (BLD), Jan Sangh, Janata Party, Bharatiya Kranti Dal, and an array of socialist leaders came together to form a rainbow coalition winning 295 seats with a 41% vote share. The coalition lasted barely 3 years with 2 Prime Ministers and performed so poorly, that the Congress came back with a bang in 1980 winning 353 seats, taking it back to the 1960s style electoral domination.

The next successful alliance was cobbled up in 1989, when VP Singh-led Janata Dal (JD) allied with the BJP and the Left Parties to make a stunning electoral debut, winning 143 seats with 17.8% votes. This alliance of right, center left and extreme left lasted just over a year!

At the state level, BJP-JD Secular in Karnataka, BJP – JD United in Bihar, and BJP – Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) in Uttar Pradesh have failed miserably, while BJP – PDP in Jammu & Kashmir is still nascent.

And yet this may well be the best route for AAP in 2019. As part of an alliance, a party doesn’t have to win the most number of seats – only ensure that it has the most relatable public face. AAP scores above everyone else by a margin on that count. With the declining force that Congress today is and a host of regional parties always hoping to influence Delhi, AAP will have to work towards making Kejriwal as the most accepted face and hope that the numbers stack up via the allies. The endorsement in Bihar election may well be the first step towards this path.

Option 5 – Create a natural home and fan out

The only parties other than BJP to get some semblance of a pan-India recall have been Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and Samajwadi Party (SP).

The BSP was formed in 1982 with an initial focus on Uttar Pradesh (UP). Its biggest moment came when it formed the government in the state of UP on its own in 2007. BSP has been doggedly fighting in UP as the natural home, but it has over the years won Lok Sabha seats in Punjab, Madhya Pradesh and Haryana and assembly seats in Bihar, Chhatisgarh, Delhi, Himachal Pradesh, Haryana, Madhya Pradesh, Punjab, Rajasthan, Uttarakhand and Jharkhand. In the 2014 Lok Sabha election, BSP won 4.3% of the votes but no seat.

The SP was formed in 1992 after splitting from the Janata Dal. The party played a key role in Delhi during 2004-2009, and its peak success came in 2012, when it swept the UP assembly elections. Other than UP, the party has tried to expand in Uttarakhand, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar and Maharashtra.

Can AAP create a natural home? If it can add Punjab to its kitty in 2016, it can then undertake a BSP style targeted expansion in specific regions with Delhi-Punjab belt as the home base. However, while both BSP and SP made an expansion bid with a clear social voter base identified, AAP has primarily contested on a shock and awe anti corruption unitary message which is not always sustainable.

As the media focus moves towards the evaluation of Modi government delivery capability, AAP will start its own expansion plan post the DUSU election setback. It has three years to prepare for the 2019 polls. Winning Punjab assembly elections and stitching an Arvind Kejriwal led political coalition will most definitely be its top two priorities.