#Goa2017: BJP Looking To Hold On, AAP Is Wild Card, Congress In Crisis Of Survival 

Goa will be the smallest state going to polls in first quarter of 2017, but it could prove to be the most significant. What makes Goa unique is the fact that BJP will be the incumbent, while Congress and AAP will be the challengers.

In the previous article, we had established that the demographics in Goa, along with the widening social base of the BJP gave the incumbent some long term advantages. Since then, the political dynamics have shifted, and from a well established two party system, we seem to be moving towards a significantly fractured political backdrop.

BJP is in the front, but is being held back by estranged partners

Not unlike its large neighbour Maharashtra to the north, Goa’s political space is now split into multiple factions. Personalities dominate the small parties, and the national parties are divided up into factions. For the BJP and Laxmikant Parsekar, the departure of Subhash Velingkar and his subsequent action of setting up the Bharatiya Bhasha Suraksha Manch (BBSM) might seem like a big blow. At the same time, the fissures over the coalition with MGP have come out in the open, and it is the BJP led by Parsekar which has pushed away the Dhavalikar brothers from the cabinet, taking away crucial ministries such as PWD from them.

This falling out with BJP makes the MGP and the BBSM natural partners. However, given the fluidity of the situation, even parties such as Goa Forward, Goa Vikas Party, Sharad Pawar’s NCP and the Shiv Sena may fancy a Bihar like fourth front. Its ability to influence the election results may perhaps be greater in Goa, given small seats and even smaller voter margins.

Congress in Goa is melting down

In the background, the Congress party, which should be playing the role of the principal opposition, remains in meltdown mode. The infighting and the desertions have amplified through the year, with the high command in Delhi making Luizinho Faleiro the party president, who promptly went about alienating existing satraps. Dabolim MLA Mauvin Godinho has been mentally part of the BJP for last two years, while former CM Pratapsingh Rane and his son are also flirting with the idea of joining the BJP, along with Pandurang Madkaikar of Cumbarjua as well. Most of the smaller parties that have emerged in Goa in last 5 years have broken off from the Congress. As such, the prospects of Congress remaining in single digits and underperforming on its 2012 results as far as seats are concerned should not be dismissed.

AAP remains a wild card

Despite some setbacks, Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) continues to aggressively push in Goa, along with Punjab. While clearly on a lower pecking order in AAP’s priority list to Punjab, Goa is the first state where AAP is looking to expand without necessarily depending on Arvind Kejriwal as the carrot. Further, with Congress’s voter base shrinking, AAP has a natural growth point, with a large minority population, particularly in South Goa. What is still lacking is a face for chief ministership, and some sense of winnability for the party. While there are some contenders in civil society leaders such as Dr. Oscar Rebello, the ultimate success barometer for AAP will be how much of votes can it divert towards itself that the Congress would typically get.

What can change in next two months before polls?

In what is shaping up to be a four or five way contest in a really small state, the threshold for winning a simple majority for one party appears to have declined significantly. BJP’s coalition won almost 50% of the vote in 2012, but one can estimate that even a one-third vote share might be enough to push the party over the threshold for a simple majority. Further, with the AAP hoping to cut into the vote share of Congress in South Goa, and MGP/BBSM hoping to cut into the vote share, the margin of victory are likely to get smaller, and hence personalities in certain seats will matter.

This appears to be a redux of the political flux that existed in the state in the 90s, when Congress was the central pole, and BJP after some upswing was losing support. However, Congress too was able to stay on in power because of small political outfits and independents who supported Congress governments in exchange for plum cabinet positions. The only difference now is that instead of the Congress, it is the BJP who can play that fulcrum for small parties and independents to bargain with. While this may be a poor outcome for the state, it can certainly ensure that Goa remains with the BJP for another term atleast.

For the BJP, the biggest advantage is thus their winnability quotient. Like other states, it is quite unlikely that the voters of Goa would want a weak unstable coalition to be at its helm, and hence BJP may get that additional undecided voter for their ability to emerge as the single largest party. So far, BJP has conveyed the impression that it will emerge as the SLP, and with a few project launches and completions on the anvil, BJP has been able to showcase some development as well in the home stretch. As such, the party needs to push to move from 30 per cent vote share to 35 per cent, which will ensure it can carry the state again with a simple majority.

Congress simply needs allies. In order to protect its position as a national party capable of ruling the state, the Congress needs to protect its flock, and also attract new allies. Despite significant cajoling from Goa Forward party and the NCP, the Congress appears adamant on fighting the election alone, despite being short on both funds, and also ideas. Its ability to win beyond the areas where it has strong satraps appear to be dim, and that can trigger a mass exodus of voters to AAP, thus creating risks of a complete whitewash.

(The author acknowledges significant input received from Nimish Joshi (@nimish_joshi) and Aashish Chandorkar (@c_aashish) in writing of this piece.)