India’s NSG Bid Fallout And The Way Forward

The Plenary meeting of the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) ended on Friday, 24 July, without a decision on India’s application for membership of the body. This outcome was not unforeseen. In fact, the External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj, in her press conference on 19 July, had sought to moderate expectations by expressing the hope that India would enter the NSG, during the current year. Some opposition parties, particularly the Congress and Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) as well as some commentators are criticising the government for ‘embarrassing’ and lowering the prestige of India by launching a high voltage campaign and facing an ignominious defeat.

It will be instructive to critically examine some of the serious charges that India should not have embarked on such an excessive campaign for the NSG membership. It will also be useful to determine the future course of action to achieve India’s objective of NSG membership.

The Campaign

It has been stated that the high decibel campaign, launched by India and culminating in the meeting between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping on 23rd June in Tashkent, has severely dented India’s prestige and standing in the world. One should remember that once India applied for NSG membership on 12th May 2016, it was incumbent upon the government to pull out all stops to achieve its objective- rather than engaging in a half-hearted campaign.

There are also strong reasons why India chose this moment to press its case. US President Barack Obama has reiterated full support to India’s membership. It is uncertain who will be the next president of the United States and whether she or he will equally commit to India, on this issue. In any case, it will take the new incumbent several months to settle into the job. The issue could be expected to go on the back-burner for the next two years.

India conducted its diplomatic campaign with tenacity and dignity. Sushma Swaraj worked the telephone lines with her counterparts. The Foreign Secretary travelled to Beijing between 16-17 June and parked himself in Seoul, to steer efforts in the last leg of deliberations. Senior officials of The Ministry of External Affairs fanned out to different capitals, to explain India’s position to the NSG members. In this context, it was incumbent upon the Prime Minister to raise this issue forcefully with Xi Jinping to drive home the importance and significance that India attaches to the issue.

China’s Role

China’s attitude before the meeting, its statements that India’s membership will ‘jeopardise’ China’s interests and will touch a ‘raw nerve’ in Pakistan and its resorting to procedural tactics, to deny the possibility of consideration of this issue, has made things very clear. It has laid open its strategy of containing India and not allowing it to play its due role in regional and global affairs.

India’s membership to the NSG would not have harmed China in any way. Its veiled contention that once India becomes a member, it would prove to be an obstacle in Pakistan’s membership was laid to rest by Swaraj in her press conference on Sunday. In any case, Pakistan’s entry depends upon the views and position of the NSG members. Pakistan’s track record is so blemished that it will be a huge body-blow to the credibility of the NSG if it admits Pakistan.

A plausible explanation for China’s adamant stand is that Pakistan’s application was used by China, as a fig leaf, to take the stand on admission of non-NPT members. This way, it also continued its efforts to equate India with Pakistan rather than with itself. Rather than ‘embarrassing’ India, its diplomatic campaign has raised India’s stature as an increasingly responsible and self-assured power.

India’s arguments are on the basis of its credentials and track record. Through these arguments, it was able to win over a preponderant majority of the NSG membership. However, China’s geo-political and strategic considerations prevailed over the views of more than 80 percent of members. China’s opposition emboldened a few others to raise some technical doubts and queries. A realistic assessment is that if China had not displayed such obduracy, other countries would have been persuaded to fall in line.

Some commentators seem to suggest that China was so inflexible because of increasing closeness between India and the United States of America. This contention does not stand the test of scrutiny. China has constantly, for the last fifty years, been putting obstacles in India’s path to realize its aspirations. China’s obstructionist behaviour during the NSG waiver deliberations in 2008 and its opposition to naming Masood Azhar and Zaki-ur-Rahman Lakhvi as terrorists by the UN, are a few such recent instances.

India will have to devise a strategy to deal with China. This could inter alia include further strengthening its relations with the US, Japan, Australia, some ASEAN members and others who might have strained or difficult relations with China. Simultaneously, India will need to strengthen ties with historical and all-time friends like Russia.

India has just become a member of the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR). It was invited within a year of its application to join the fold. China’s application has been languishing since 2004 because of its dubious and suspect proliferation and missile technology control record. India will have to take an appropriate view when China’s application for MTCR membership comes up again for consideration. India will have to guard against a strong push by China to become a member of SAARC. The next Summit takes place in Pakistan between the 9-10 November 2016. China will reach out pro-actively to all other SAARC members, several of whom appear to be supportive of China’s bid. India will need to stand firm against China’s entry into the South Asian body.

China is a major economy and a significant trading partner of India, sharing a 4,000 km long border which remains unsettled. There are several issues which are a source of discord between the two countries. There are also many other problems, which both countries are working on together.

Developments in Seoul should not be allowed to cast an irreversible dark shadow on the development of bilateral ties. China was offered a golden opportunity to reduce trust deficit with India. It decided not to use it. Geo-politics and its support for Pakistan triumphed over better relations with India. China has emerged diminished from the Seoul episode while India, although disappointed by the lack of consensus on its application, has come out walking tall.

The Way Forward

The silver lining is that in the near term the denial of NSG membership will not make any substantive difference to the development of India’s nuclear sector. This is because of the NSG waiver in 2008. In the ensuing period, till the next plenary in Switzerland in 2017 or the interim meeting before the end of the year, India should actively engage with all members- particularly those who have expressed doubts or raised queries, including China.

India has already stated that the lack of decision in Seoul will delay its ratification of the Paris Accord on climate change. India will have to emphatically tell the nay-sayers that India’s membership is in the larger global interest and that its participation would further strengthen nuclear non-proliferation and make global nuclear commerce more secure. India has made it clear that it does not have any geo-strategic ambitions in becoming a member of NSG. It only wishes to ensure stability, certainty and predictability in its nuclear commerce with its international partners. The Seoul meeting concluded with members declaring their ‘firm support for the full, complete and efficient implementation of the NPT as the cornerstone of the international non-proliferation regime’. (The phrase ‘efficient implementation’ was introduced by some western countries to provide an entry to India, by ensuring that compliance with NPT obligations would be a significant consideration and not only a signature of the NPT).

Developments in Seoul are a temporary setback. They are not a disaster. With its unblemished and impeccable record, India can hope to enter the portals of NSG during this year or soon after that.