MCD Election Results: Kejriwal May Be Down But Not Out Just Yet

If you are exulting that the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has been wiped off the political scene after its poor show in the Municipal Corporation of Delhi (MCD) elections – well, don’t.

Let’s not forget the party still controls the Delhi government, that too with a brute majority in the assembly. It is also the main opposition in the Punjab assembly. And even if it is a distant second to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in all three municipal corporations in Delhi, it is still the main opposition here too. These are bitter facts that need to be acknowledged by its many critics (who are growing by the day).

Let’s also not forget that AAP was in a worse position earlier when it came to enjoy the unheard of majority it did in the Delhi assembly in 2015. The party was down and out in May 2014 after Arvind Kejriwal and his prime ministerial ambitions suffered a crushing defeat in Varanasi. The Delhi public was furious with Kejriwal and AAP because of the squandering of the impressive mandate they had given it just to pander to one man’s ego.

But AAP bounced back. Kejriwal was contriteness and humility personified as he went around establishing contact with the people of Delhi, apologising to them for betraying them and promising never to do so again, even as an arrogant BJP delayed holding elections in Delhi (it was under central rule ever since AAP quit the government). By the time elections were held, AAP had got more than just its wind back. If elections had been held within the first few months of Narendra Modi becoming prime minister, AAP would not have stood a chance. Worse, the BJP kept making one over-confident mistake after another, angering Delhi voters, who didn’t have a Congress to turn to.

So AAP could still do a comeback like it did in 2015. But it will not be a cakewalk anymore. Things have changed enormously since then.

If those revelling in AAP’s discomfiture need to remember its Phoenix-like resurrection, the AAP leadership and Kejriwal also need to remember that its 2015 victory was largely due to the over-confidence of the BJP and the absence of the Congress in Delhi. It also needs to acknowledge that its poor showing in the MCD elections is because its voters felt betrayed once again. In 2014, Kejriwal abandoned Delhi to try and become prime minister. And after promising paanch saal Kejriwal in 2015, he repeated the same antics, handing over Delhi to Manish Sisodia and trying his luck in Punjab, Goa and Gujarat. One transgression will be forgiven (and it was); when it is repeated, consequences will follow (as it has). The party’s poor showing in Goa and Punjab showed that voters in those states also realised that the party was not to be trusted.

AAP’s churlishness, its immature antics and its attempts to brazen its way out of any controversy has led to its bank of vocal supporters dwindling. Commentators who once sprung to its defence now prefer to remain silent, if not actually criticise it.

The party can now go either of two ways. It can learn from its mistakes and mend its ways. It will have to give up its misplaced arrogance, delusions of grandeur and over-reliance on Kejriwal. There is no point saying the BJP relies overly on Modi or that the Congress relies overly on the Dynasty; those are different, older parties with a proven track record, which AAP still doesn’t have.

To get this track record, AAP will need to give up its theatrics and focus on governance in Delhi. It will need to give up its confrontational, finger-pointing, conspiracy theory-floating politics and hunker down to work. There’s a lot a Delhi government can do, even with the little elbow room it has; it needs to focus on that. AAP will need to repair its image, hugely dented by the way dissenters within the party have been treated, by the clear lack of probity among several of its MLAs and trying to justify the unjustifiable, like getting the exchequer to bear the cost of legal fees of the defamation case Arun Jaitley filed against Kejriwal.

The other route AAP can take is to continue its melodramatic politics – blaming the central government and now the BJP-dominated MCD for not delivering on governance, and even not giving the municipal corporations the assistance they need to carry out their basic functions. The BJP may be rejoicing in its MCD victory but AAP, as the principal opposition in all three corporations and in charge of the state government, can give it a very hard time. The initial statements coming from AAP showed the same churlish refusal to accept reality, the same lack of grace. But later Kejriwal put out a more conciliatory statement. This needs to go beyond mere optics, however.

And what of the BJP? The decision to replace all sitting councillors with fresh faces was a master stroke – the party leadership appeared to be saying that it acknowledged the non-performance of its earlier team. People bought into it and helped the party buck anti-incumbency. But the party will need to tread carefully from here on. It will need to handle AAP carefully. The central government has not done this till now and was handing over opportunities for the party to play victim. The previous lieutenant governor Najeeb Jung and former Delhi Police commissioner B S Bassi didn’t help matters. This needs to change.

This is important because Delhi’s civic infrastructure is breaking down and fixing this cannot be done by the municipal corporation alone or by the central government bypassing the state government all the time (even though the municipal corporations come directly under the central government). Street lights may be an MCD responsibility, but electricity is the state government’s responsibility. The Delhi Jal Board is under the state government, but people will go first to the municipal councillor for any water-related woes; the councillor cannot afford to plead helplessness.

The future of Delhi depends on how the two adversaries conduct themselves.