Mufti’s Uncommon Maximal Programme

The J&K Chief Minister has offered nothing to the BJP through the common minimum programme while the state government’s constant pro-separatist moves threaten to make law and order in the Valley spiral out of control. The smaller partner in the coalition must assert its position. Now.

Last time the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) came to power at the Centre, Pakistan’s military-intelligence establishment worked overtime to depict to Indians that it is not as capable of handling national security affairs as it claims and its voters expect. First they backstabbed then Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee by letting mujahideen into Indian territory through Kargil. Though the Vajpayee government was able to successfully evict the Pakistani infiltrators, Rawalpindi did not give up. Next, ISI proxies carried out the IC-814 hijacking, which ultimately resulted in an ignominious surrender by the then government as three hardened terrorists were escorted to Kandahar by the then External Affairs Minister Jaswant Singh.

This was the first time the Vajpayee government’s ability to handle national security emergencies drew flak domestically. Pakistan had tasted its first success. But the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government failed to learn any lessons from the two episodes and provided then Pakistan President General Pervez Musharraf an opportunity to promote the separatist narrative by inviting him to Agra for bilateral talks.

Musharraf exploited the opportunity to the hilt and walked away from the venue after uttering a lot of rubbish. Pakistan intensified its terrorist offensive against India thereafter and we witnessed major attacks like the one on the Jammu & Kashmir Assembly House and Parliament, forcing Vajpayee to launch Operation Parakram that involved a major military deployment along the border, which was terminated after about seven months. Pakistan had achieved its goal and the BJP’s core voters disapproved of Vajpayee’s ‘soft’ national security policies during the 2004 general elections.

All this is worth recalling because the antics of Jammu & Kashmir’s new Chief Minister Mufti Mohammad Sayeed are again making the BJP vulnerable to separatists. Being a party that thrives on an uncompromising nationalist core support base, the BJP is particularly susceptible to a backlash in such a scenario. The nation may not be facing a national security situation soon, given the fact that a hawk like National Security Adviser Ajit Doval is at the helm of affairs and the Narendra Modi government’s foreign policies have so far been reasonably good, but Mufti’s policies may soon turn into a nationwide disaster for the party ruling at the Centre as far as the battle of perceptions is concerned.

It was very much visible to careful observers that separatists silently worked to ensure the People’s Democratic Party’s (PDP’s) win in the Valley so as to minimise the possibility of a BJP-NC combine coming to power. In view of this, the BJP should have been extra cautious in negotiating the terms of the power sharing agreement with the PDP. The BJP negotiators should have tried to make the text of Common Minimum Programme (CMP) as tight as possible, leaving little room for the PDP as well as separatists to manoeuvre.

A perusal of the CMP makes it clear that the BJP has erred. First, it acknowledges the PDP’s demand of opening talks with Pakistan and says, “The Union government has recently initiated several steps to normalise the relationship (sic) with Pakistan.” Talks with Pakistan thus figure as a sort of precondition for power sharing.

Technically, the issue of dialogue should not have formed part of the CMP text, as foreign policy is not a state subject, and it has been India’s well articulated longstanding position that all issues with Pakistan are to be sorted out bilaterally. The state government cannot have a say in our Pakistan policy. The BJP should have asked Mufti to be satisfied with the fact that talks are being reopened and forget about having it mentioned in the CMP. The very mention of the ‘P’ word in CMP allowed Mufti to give credit to that country’s role in offering a “conducive atmosphere” for polls.

The CMP makes a special mention of the talks initiated by the Vajpayee government with Hurriyat Conference and calls upon the coalition government to take that forward in the spirit of “Insaniyat, Kashmiriyat and Jamhooriyat” (humanity, culture of Kashmir and democracy). At the same time, the document refrains from making a special mention of involving Kashmiri Pandit organisations like Panun Kashmir in the reconciliatory process. If that is not enough, the CMP is silent on the fate of ‘political prisoners’ like Masrat Alam, which has allowed the PDP to defend its action of releasing him by saying that talks with Hurriyat presupposes release of people like Alam, and that they are just taking forward the initiative of Vajpayee!

The PDP is a regional party that was out of power for the last six years and so was more in need of coming to power than was BJP, which is in power at the Centre and many states. It is true that the BJP, being the ruling party at the Centre, has to look after national interests, of which stabilising Jammu & Kashmir is foremost. This can be done by display of a ‘big heart’. However, it should have drawn clear red lines for the PDP in the agreed document for governance.

Now the CMP and the portfolio sharing arrangement together allow the PDP to easily dump the BJP’s agendas like rehabilitation of Kashmiri Pandits and citizenship to refugees from Pakistan, as all the ministries concerned like Home, Law, Revenue and Finance are with the PDP.

The BJP is still hopeful of securing something from Mufti by allowing him to first give concessions to separatists and then seek back their cooperation on issues like rehabilitation of Pandits. This is the undertone of the ‘grand strategy at work’ argument with which the BJP’s supporters try to defend the party. But here the party may be running a grave risk.

The Mufti government, apart from paving the way for release of separatist leaders like Masrat Alam, has also eased restrictions on rallies organised by separatists. All this will allow the secessionists to regain their nuisance value and strengthen their network. And when the BJP tries to push its agendas—for instance, refugee settlement—separatists will spring into action like they did in 2008 over the Amarnath Shrine Board land issue, allowing Mufti to excuse himself from implementing it. The biggest problem in Sayeed giving concessions to separatists is that they only follow directions from Rawalpindi.

In such a scenario, one that walks out first from the coalition will be the gainer in its respective constituency. Mufti is already working on a two-pronged strategy of maximising his gains in the Valley by catering to hardliners and injuring the BJP base in Jammu by sending out indications that BJP can’t deliver anything to them. The trouble for the BJP does not end here as Mufti’s concessions to pro-Pakistan elements in Kashmir also liquidate the BJP’s core nationalist support base throughout the country.

Throughout its electoral career, indeed since its inception from the Jan Sangh days, the BJP had made repealing of Article 370 a core promise of its electoral agenda. Unsurprisingly, it forms part of the Lok Sabha 2014 manifesto as well. Now, the CMP has abandoned this promise. By doing so,  the BJP has decisively turned away from the principles espoused by its founder Shyama Prasad Mookerjee and its own manifestos. Besides damaging the nationalist vote, the PDP’s moves can undermine the confidence and enthusiasm of the BJP cadre.

Further, there is an argument being made that the BJP is enduring the insults and provocations heaped on it by the PDP in order to gain an advantage for Jammu. This might turn out to be a misreading of the situation, too. In the early days in the run up to the alliance, the BJP was insisting that it be given the Home Ministry in Kashmir so that the state police is under its writ, helping the law and order situation in the Valley. That demand was dropped later for the sake of the coalition. Thus far, the BJP has made major concessions on all fronts and has nothing to show as its gains from the deal. Development of the Jammu region is far from assured under the present government’s structure and inclination, and it appears the PDP has no intention of sharing power with the BJP for long.

The best alternative for the BJP in these circumstances is to simultaneously insist on implementation of its agenda while PDP is addressing its constituency