Reading Bihar

Opinion polls seem broadly correct about the coming election.

The early opinion polls say that Nitish Kumar is popular but the BJP will win Bihar. How accurate is that finding?

Pretty near. When Nitish was in alliance with the BJP, the state benefited. Electoral compulsions make the BJP deny this. It is equally undeniable that Bihar suffered under Laloo Prasad Yadav. Nitish and Laloo make very strange bedfellows even for politics. But how is this dichotomy explained where Nitish is popular and a BJP victory is on the cards? It reflects the new contradictions in Bihar where the old order is yielding place to modernity.

Nitish Kumar has never been a fully autonomous leader. For years, he was among several OBC leaders who came to prominence because of Jayaprakash Narayan. Then Nitish hooked on to George Fernandes and rose in national politics. He was one of A. B. Vajpayee’s cabinet ministers. When the opportunity presented, he joined forces with the BJP and ended Laloo’s “jungle raj”. Who spearheaded the change in Bihar under Nitish? Nitish or his capable deputy of that time, Sushil Modi? Popular narrative would choose Nitish. This is what the opinion polls show.

But this writer has a slightly different perspective. Sushil Modi was the real driving force in Bihar. His decency and respect for Nitish kept him in the shadows. There are objective reasons to say this. Nitish has never been a political force. He is not a mass politician. He hides behind bureaucrats. Anyone who depends on bureaucrats loathes change. Nitish plays safe and is risk-averse.

If Nitish were not risk-averse and afraid,he would have gone for elections after the breakup with the BJP. Leave that aside. He would have gone alone now. He would not have allied with Laloo and the corrupt Congress. A risk-averse person cannot bring change. So if Bihar changed under Nitish, someone else was driving it. Sushil Modi. In other words, Sushil Modi and the BJP were doing the heavy lifting. They were magnanimous to let Nitish take the credit.

When Nitish fell out with the BJP over Narendra Modi and was forced to go alone, the real Nitish surfaced. He was politically scared. He panicked and had a stopgap chief minister who revolted and was thrown out. Soon, governance collapsed. Nitish went missing. The confidence was gone. The bureaucracy grew more powerful and useless. Bihar drifted. Drift which is the worst bane of Indian politics and marked decades of Congress rule at the Centre returned to Bihar. Bihar under Nitish presently is in drift.

This is the real Nitish Kumar. He is no modernizer or reformist. He is invested in status quo. What can you say of a chief minister who keeps demanding special status for his state? Hasn’t he already given up? Hasn’t he already proclaimed his incompetence?  He is like that other incompetent, Omar Abdullah. Bihar’s voters have guessed the truth somewhere. In the absence of a BJP chief minister candidate, they likely recall only Nitish’s name. Outside his votebank, Laloo is persona non grata.

But those same voters probably reckon that the modernizing and reforming force is the BJP. Hence the support and the likely majority for the party. But it cannot rest with the opinion poll results. A simple majority for the BJP will not assist Bihar’s regeneration. It requires nothing less than a landslide victory.