Tamil Nadu, Check: The Mahagathbandhan Is Dead On Arrival While NDA Thrives

Through 2018, Indian media and political commentary circles were abuzz with the speculation of an emerging Mahagathbandhan – a grand alliance – to taken on the Narendra Modi and Amit Shah led Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the 2019 elections. The start of the 2019 election is now barely fifty days away, but the Mahagathbandhan has refused to show up.

It is not for the lack of effort. The problem with the Mahagathbandhan is too much effort – every regional leader has dreamt of taking the lead role in shaping it. And every regional leader has failed so far to create a cohesive view on how this alliance should be formed.

Mamata Banerjee, the Trinamool Congress Party leader, has come the closest to getting all opposition parties together. Her grand rally in Kolkata was attended by most opposition parties. Other attempts, notably by the Telangana Rashtra Samiti leader K Chandrashekar Rao and Aam Aadmi Party leader Arvind Kejriwal have not taken off.

Congress is happy sending its leaders on every stage. However, in their minds, Congress leaders are clear that only Rahul Gandhi can lead the Mahagathbandhan. This does not fit well with the Prime Ministerial ambitions of the regional leaders, who have been very poor at masking their real agenda.

Another issue is that in several states, the local Congress units do not want an alliance with other parties. The local units face day to day operational issues in countering these parties and have fought bitter election battles against the same adversaries. They see no point in forging alliances for national gains, when the local workers do not see eye to eye on most political matters.

By now, the opposition was supposed to forge a grand front led by someone – presumably Rahul Gandhi – and provide an alternative message to the voters of India. This Mahagathbandhan has not yet been formed except on primetime news. In fact, what has happened is exactly the opposite.

The BJP has sealed alliances on more seats than it had in 2014. The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) already has partners on 165 seats.

On 40 seats in Bihar, the party has already declared an alliance with the Janata Dal (United) and the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP). On 48 seats in Maharashtra, the BJP forged an alliance with Shiv Sena. The Shiromani Akali Dal tie-up will continue in Punjab, which has 13 seats. The NDA will have various partners contesting alongside the BJP in the eight states of North East, which together send 25 members to the Lok Sabha, with Assam having the highest representation at 14 members of Parliament.

Finally, the BJP has sealed an alliance in Tamil Nadu too. The All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) and the Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) are joining hands on one side. On the other side, the AIADMK has also announced its intent to take onboard the BJP in Tamil Nadu and Puducherry. On its part, the BJP is also negotiating terms with the Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK). The four parties extended alliance will contest the 39 seats in the state and the lone seat of Puducherry as a single block.

Accounting for all the alliances, the BJP will contest the 2019 elections in formal pre-poll arrangements on 166 seats. Contrast this picture with the one in 2014 – the BJP had statewide alliances only in Maharashtra, Punjab, Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana, which together formed 103 seats.

On 106 seats, the BJP and the Congress are in a direct contest with no notable regional party able to make any difference. These include Chhatisgarh (11 seats), Goa (2), Gujarat (26), Himachal Pradesh (4), Madhya Pradesh (29), Rajasthan (25), and Uttarakhand (5) from the states and one seat each in the Union Territories of Andaman and Nicobar, Chandigarh, Dadra and Nagar Haveli, and Daman and Diu.

The real pre-poll Mahagathbandhan only exists today in 14 seats of Jharkhand and on the lone seat in Lakshadweep. The only other state where such an arrangement is possible is Karnataka. The Janata Dal (Secular) government in alliance with the Congress has seen ups and downs in the ten months it has governed. Nonetheless, the two parties can still come together for the Lok Sabha. This will take the pure pre-poll Mahagathbandhan tally to 43. In Bihar, Maharashtra, and Tamil Nadu, the Congress will have alliances of its own, but not accounting all non-BJP parties.

In the remaining 228 seats, a minimum of tri-cornered fight is emerging.

On the 25 seats of Andhra Pradesh, the governing Telugu Desam Party will see opposition from the BJP, the Congress, and the YSR Congress Party.

In Delhi, the governing Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), having failed in forging an alliance with a locally resurgent Congress, will take on the BJP on 7 seats.

The 10 seats of Haryana will see multi-cornered fights involving the governing BJP, the AAP, the Congress, the Indian Lok Dal and its splinter faction.

The 6 seats of Jammu and Kashmir will be contested by the National Conference and the Jammu & Kashmir Peoples Democratic Party against the BJP and the Congress.

In Kerala, the Left and the Congress can hardly come together in a pre-poll scenario. They have been at each other’s throats for several decades now. The BJP hopes to make inroads in some of the 20 seats in the state.

In Odisha, the governing Biju Janata Dal will take on the fast-gaining BJP and the traditional rival Congress on 21 seats.

In Telangana, the governing Telangana Rashtra Samiti will contest against the BJP, the Congress, and the Telugu Desham Party on 17 seats.

In West Bengal which sends 42 members to Lok Sabha, the local Congress as well as the Left units have been clear about not supporting the Trinamool Congress. The BJP has made gains in the local polls there in recent past. Several seats in the state will witness a four-cornered fight.

Finally, the biggest state of Uttar Pradesh (UP), which was supposed to be the laboratory of Mahagathbandhan, has been the first one to move away from the concept. The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and the Samajwadi Party (SP) refused to include the Congress in their alliance. The Congress, which has now fielded Jyotiraditya Scindia and Priyanka Gandhi in the state, cannot anymore take a soft stance against the BSP-SP combine. It cannot afford to fail on Priyanka Gandhi’s debut effort, and hence is working towards its own alliance with Shivpal Yadav’s party. The BJP will take on the combinations on the 80 seats of UP.

There is no doubt that all anti-BJP parties will come together post poll should such a need arise. But if these parties – all regional with no or very small possibility of expansion outside their traditional areas of influence – cannot come together pre-poll, what does it say about the convenience of the anti-BJP plank?

The opposition is intending to have its cake and eat it too. Will the voter let them skim it?