Tamil Nadu Exit Polls: Why This May Be A Big Win For Karunanidhi And The DMK

If the ADMK is going to stay in power after 19th May then the party would have proven nearly every pollster in the polling business wrong. The chances of such an eventuality do seem quite remote.

This election might go down as as the hardest one the DMK ever fought for. A number of factors were said to be against the oldest Dravidian party - enough problems to make the party lose despite a significant anti-incumbency feeling amidst the voters.

Most observers had originally predicted dire straits for the DMK in the polls because of its fractured and frail leadership. It was feared that the 2G scam and other assorted scams involving the DMK’s first family had tainted the party’s image beyond repair.

Then there was the question of succession - Karunanidhi is pushing 91 and is unable to move around on his own. His son Stalin’s leadership and succession, though widely accepted, is by no means expected to be easy. If the poll numbers turn out to be true then the DMK has managed to overcome these fears about leadership issues. The father-son duo of Karunanidhi and Stalin would deserve a good deal of credit for their ability to project a sense of leadership and clarity. The voter would have definitely contrasted this with Jayalalithaa’s inaccessible working style and politics.

Another strong factor that was thought to be going against the DMK was the People’s Welfare Front - an alliance of individually irrelevant parties that were thought to be of some consequence only because they pooled their votes together. It was feared that the PWF would split votes and mostly garner the anti-incumbency votes. Since the ADMK traditionally had a higher vote share, and the anti-incumbency vote was being split, it was thought the ruling party would be able to sail through in many seats. A popular pollster claimed that in a large number of constituencies parties other than those in ADMK and DMK alliances scored more than 25% votes.

The DMK, if the current poll numbers hold, has overcome a 14% vote difference between themselves and the ADMK. The ADMK held the record for highest ever vote share received by a party in Tamil Nadu elections by grabbing nearly 44% of the votes in 2014 general elections.

Here are some charts and tables from the exit polls to help you understand the general sense from the pollsters.

Polling percentages

2006 - 70%

2011 - 77.8% beating 76.5% in 1967

2016 - 73.8%