Towards Winning 2019 - Here Are 17 Things BJP & Modi Govt Must Do In 2017

After a euphoric 2014, the year which saw the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win a historic mandate in the Lok Sabha polls, 2015 proved to be a damp squib for the party. Through 2015, the opposition weaved a web of non sequiturs, keeping the government busy erecting hurried safety nets. After the electoral defeats in Delhi and Bihar, the government started 2016 on a somber note.

The BJP looked vulnerable at the start of this year, but thanks to an overzealous bunch of Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU) students, the tide turned in February. The opposition and the chirping intelligentsia went too far in search of political snare traps breaching the holy grail of nationalism riding on the JNU protests. And that’s when the government got better hold of narrative, as it was able to box the critics in a corner armed with a pro or anti India binary.

Indian intelligentsia will neither accept nor understand, but nationalism rules the ism roost for most citizens, pleas on blogs and Twitter notwithstanding. The die was cast and BJP kept the nationalism plank on a slow boil through the year, being careful not to overuse it politically. With decent electoral performances, good monsoon, stabilizing economy and Pakistan surgical strikes, the government more or less kept the critics on a back-foot through the year. The demonetization gamble has put Prime Minister (PM) Narendra Modi in full control of his political destiny in the near term, a complete change from end 2015.

We wrote about a 2016 plan for the BJP. A quick review of the points we raised last year indicates that BJP has achieved most of the agenda the authors evaluated as relevant for the year. On the political front, BJP had a good electoral year, put Congress on defensive, made all the right noises on alliances, and has hit high notes in the Uttar Pradesh (UP) campaign. On the economic front, bankruptcy code provisions are being rolled out, while Goods and Services Tax (GST) may still hit the April 2017 deadline. While there was debate on the institutional framework in which Reserve Bank should operate, the NITI Aayog picked up good steam working on key areas like divestment, electoral reforms, innovation, and financial infrastructure. In the social sector, the government did put agriculture and infrastructure spending on priority, while consolidating central schemes. Not much headway was made on key reforms in education and healthcare, which remains a sore point for the government. The one area where the government continues to falter is on building and controlling narrative and no institutional mechanism was put in place this year to change that. On a whole, 10 out of the identified 16 areas saw good momentum.

The year 2017 will be a year of consolidation for the government as well as the BJP, before the heavy lifting for the 2019 election begins next year. In many ways, what the government does not do this year - in terms of avoiding mistakes, not political inactions - will set the tone for the reelection bid, rather than what gets done. Ultimately PM Modi will have to account for the notorious “recency effect” so prevalent in the Indian elections, and ensure that a lot of big ticket items have to be dealt with in 2018.

With these considerations and constraints in mind, here are the 17 things for 2017 that should be focused on.

Political Agenda

1. Win Uttar Pradesh (UP) Election: The BJP has to ensure victory in UP or at the minimum emerge as the single largest party. This is critical because a win will have immense signaling value as well as great political leverage. A clear win will be seen as vindication for demonetization and put the party in administrative control ahead of the next Lok Sabha election.

2. Stick to Congress Mukt Bharat Rhetoric: The PM as well as the party president Amit Shah has invested a lot of personal energy in building this rhetoric. It cannot be wished away at this point. To ensure that people continue to believe this is a priority item, the BJP will have to win Uttarakhand and Himachal while retaining Gujarat and Goa. If the Congress emerges strong in any of these four states, the BJP will have a lot of explaining to do to its political constituency.

3. Firmer Alliance Management: Several political alliances are going to be on crossroads for the BJP in 2017. Will Shiv Sena be part of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) for the Maharashtra municipal elections? What happens to Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) alliance if the NDA loses Punjab? Can BJP capitalize in Tamil Nadu with All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) leadership change? Can BJP attract either the Biju Janata Dal (BJD) or the Janata Dal United (JDU) back in the NDA fold? The party should keep all these possibilities open - any eventual fall out or new alignment can happen in 2018. But 2017 should not be a year of NDA breaking up.

4. Win the Presidential Race: The all important elections for the posts of President and Vice President will come up in June 2017. BJP should strive to get their candidates elected with as less political effort as possible. The above alliances are critical for this reason too. The choice of presidential candidate also can be leveraged to make gains in 2019 elections and make some profound impact on the union cabinet as it currently stands.

5. Make a firm statement via cabinet reshuffle: Post the presidential elections, PM Modi might look to reshuffle his cabinet for the final time ahead of the 2019 elections. It is also likely to be contingent on the choices he makes for Presidential post itself. Nonetheless, keeping the timeframe for 2019 elections, he may wish to make changes to his cabinet early on to give his ministers some time to deliver results. PM Modi can also consider moving some of the experienced regional satraps like Raman Singh to the Centre. If PM Modi decides to elevate one of his top 4 ministers as president, that further opens up room for experienced hands from the states to come and serve in the union cabinet. This will allow emerging leadership in BJP ruled states to move up as well.

Economic Agenda

6. Overcome Demonetization Demons: Indian citizens have shown great faith in PM Modi when he said that the demonetization woes will last 50 days. That there have been no major law and order situations anywhere in India including in non-NDA states shows that people are willing to be patient. However, the suffering is real. Beyond political posturing, the government should continue to be empathetic to this reality, and work hard in undoing the economic losses in the first quarter of 2017.

7. GST Go Live September 2017: GST will be a disruptive reform which will test the change management capability of the state to the hilt. The demonetization experience has already shown that such capability is weak at best given the diversity of the country and the poor administrative infrastructure. The GST can hence not be left for 2018 or it can be an electoral suicide for the 2019 election. If an April 2017 implementation is not possible, the government should settle for the next best option which is to go live mid-year next financial year.

8. Restore RBI’s credibility by leaving it alone- 2016 was a year that left the Reserve Bank badly bruised, because it was kept in the news for the wrong reasons. From the unexpected resignation of Raghuram Rajan, to the flak RBI has received since the demonetization, the institution needs to regain its credibility. For that, the government should focus on appointing independent directors on its board, remove the impression of interference, and leave the institution alone for a year.

9. Income Tax Relief and Direct Benefit Transfers: The Indian tax payers have undergone great hardship with the demonetization process. The government should reward this constituency directly and explicitly. There should be an income tax rate cut in February 2017 budget for individual as well as corporate taxpayers as well as rationalization of the tax slabs. The government should also use the tax receipts from Income Declaration Schemes (IDS) of 2016 for direct transfers at least to the Jan Dhan Yojana (JDY) accounts.

10. Assuaging the trader voter base: Apart from the public at large, traders and small businesses have suffered significantly through the demonetization. A large chunk have not only have seen a huge slump in activity, but have also been seen as corrupt. Given the historical support traders and small businesses have provided to the BJP, the government should not waste an opportunity to reach out to this voter bloc, given its interests are largely economic in nature, and can be met easily through tax breaks, and simpler tax processes.

Governance Delivery

11. Power and Roads Investments: The government has prioritized these two sectors since 2014. In 2017, there should be an attempt to deliver 100% household power coverage to as many villages as possible. Similarly a few large, visible road projects need to complete, especially around metros. There should be a tangible touch-and-feel improvement on long distance commuting in the country.

12. Put BharatNet Project on Steroids: The Modi government put a premium on completing the BharatNet project and has significantly improved coverage on laying fiber optic cable as well as putting working digital infrastructure in gram panchayats. However, the project is still behind schedule. This digital infrastructure can be a big boost for cashless digital India and can be a great complementary step for demonetization.

13. Create Employment Targets for Central Scheme: The government should focus on creating outcome targets for schemes like Swachh Bharat and Pradhan Mantri Kaushal Vikas Yojana. India is still not adding as many jobs as required to support a burgeoning workforce. Unless the inputs translate into jobs, government spending on these programs will not mean much.

14. Keep supporting the farmer: Targeted intervention for farmers needs to be continued. The government made a decisive switch in 2016 budget when its policies turned mildly populist for the rural sector. This push needs to be continued, in order to support farm incomes, but not due to higher prices, but higher production. This supply side approach with social nets such as insurance and other incomes will greatly help the rural sector.

Communication and Narrative Building

15. Revive National Digital Operating Center: Like last year, we reiterate our suggestion on winning the digital mind space. Since 2014, several other parties have caught up with the BJP on social media, with even regional parties such as BJD, Samajwadi party and BSP playing catch up. As such, the next leg of digital battle will be on collecting data, through voter engagement, feedback loops, and marketing messages. BJP must reinvigorate its National Digital Operating Center (NDOC) type command centre to stay ahead on the curve. The party has started engaging multiple platforms for political campaigning, and it needs to bring it together the 2019 campaign.

16. Media Briefings: The party continues to struggle with media management. From sparring over surgical strikes, to the evolving question mark over its alleged communal designs, the party remains an object of derision, and also misinformation by the media. We reiterate that the government as well as the party can institute a simple media briefing process; some of these situations can be avoided.

17. Cultivate right leaning intellectuals: The lack of intellectual depth from the stables of the BJP has not been as obvious as the demonetization debate and discourse. Unlike well renowned economists, who even without political agenda came forward to question the move, the BJP largely failed in providing cohesive answers to counter the narrative. While people such as Jagdish Bhagwati and Bibek Debroy did step up to the plate, the lack of bench strength was there for everyone to see. The BJP and its affiliates need to do more to reach out to a broad range of professional disciplines in order to provide the intellectual foundations for its economic ideology. Across sciences, economics and arts, there is no dearth of individuals who can help create a narrative which can help the government and the party, but the efforts won’t fall in place without a central sponsorship. Some positive steps have been taken recently by institutions like India Foundation, but more can be done in order to support this endeavor.

The End Course - Perception Boost with tangible results

The time for preparation is now over, and the government has to top up all the political and economic work done so far with a perception difference. This perception has to be seen through results, as a lot of government effort has gone into positioning itself as anti-corrupt, pro-poor, clean working set up, but with not enough impact seen on the ground. While there is a lot of data to back this up, there is nothing to show in terms of high profile arrests on corruption issues, or guilty being brought to book. There is no need for a witch hunt, but the ongoing investigations in defense deals, land deals, and black money have to get to the point of implicating high priests of Indian political set up. If this does not happen, the clean positioning will ring hollow come 2019. Similarly, on the economic front, the benefits of better governance and coordination within ministries have to start showing up in both project completions, and also a perceivable boost in productivity. Further, the size and scale of new projects that are being launched have to rise significantly, in order to display ambition, like the government has done with recent project launches in Mumbai.

2017 is the year when BJP can become the clear fulcrum of Indian politics, where all opposition becomes anti BJP, reminiscent of the late 1980s and late 1990s time period when Congress occupied that space. Or the party can lose momentum and go on a complete back-foot if it fails to win the several mini-battles. The Modi-Shah combine will have to work hand-in-hand closely managing key issues to achieve the former. The choice is between a year of clear consolidation versus a lost opportunity resulting in an uphill re-election climb.