Uttar Pradesh Isn’t Just BJP Vs Mahagathbandhan Fight; Another Key Battle Is Mayawati Vs Congress

A few days ago, Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) supremo Mayawati made a controversial call to Muslims to vote en bloc for the BSP-SP-RLD mahagathbandhan, and not split their vote by backing the Congress in some seats.

The significance of this call lies not so much in its communal appeal, but the politics underneath. On the surface, the battle for Uttar Pradesh’s 80 Lok Sabha seats is between the mahagathbandhan and the BJP-led coalition, with Congress playing spoiler in some seats. But there is another battle going on. Mayawati is trying hard to reduce Congress to a cipher in the state. And the Congress is paying it back in its own coin.

This has been apparent for some time, as Mayawati refused to align with the Congress in states like Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, which went to the polls last December. Her instinctive belief is that if the Congress rises again, some Dalits may well gravitate towards it. This will weaken her claims to be the tallest Dalit leader in the country – not to speak of her bargaining power with other parties.

In short, Mayawati sees the Congress as the main threat to her future.

On the other hand, the Congress sees Mayawati as the main hurdle to its leadership of the non-BJP political force, and thus feels the need to cut it down to size. In the last assembly battle of 2017, it joined forces with Akhilesh Yadav of the Samajwadi Party, and logically would like to align with him in future. But as long as Mayawati is the stumbling block, this can’t happen. Akhilesh may want a larger front, but Mayawati has vetoed it. And right now, Akhilesh needs her more than the Congress.

It is this undercurrent of hostility between Mayawati and the Congress that is playing out in large parts of western Uttar Pradesh.

In order to undercut Mayawati, the Congress has put up strong candidates in the seats going to the polls in the first phase (11 April), where the BSP-SP-RLD alliance hopes to garner all minority votes. But the Congress has put up strong local Muslim candidates in some seats like Saharanpur and Moradabad, which makes Mayawati nervous. If the Muslim vote splits in these two seats, the BJP could nose ahead. This is what forced Mayawati to ask Muslims to not give their votes to Congress.

In contrast, it appears that the Congress is not putting up equally tough candidates in seats where the Samajwadi Party is contesting. According to a Times of India report, the Congress has fielded an upper caste candidate in Rampur, from where Samajwadi strongman Azam Khan is seeking to enter the Lok Sabha. The hope is that the Congress candidate here will cut into the BJP’s vote base rather than that of the mahagathbandhan.

Win or lose, the BJP, with its ideological moorings, will always remain relevant to Uttar Pradesh. But the subterranean fight is between Congress and BSP, with both seeing a Muslim-Dalit combination as key to their own long-term political future.

This battle should be as keenly watched as the larger one between BJP and the mahagathbandhan.