Why The Contest In Rajasthan May Be Closer Than Expected

Until about a month ago, several political experts of the country were convinced that the Congress is heading towards an emphatic win in Rajasthan, with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) not having even a fighting chance. However, as it is often said, even a week’s time is enough in politics and now it does seem that the BJP will give a close fight to the Congress in Rajasthan. As the state went to vote on Friday (7 December), the chances of BJP winning again are only getting better.

Several factors can be attributed for the initial pessimism about BJP’s prospects of returning to power in Rajasthan. One of the primary factors was the anti-incumbency wave prevailing across Rajasthan.

Second, since Rajasthan in the past two decades has witnessed alternative Congress and BJP governments after every term, there is a common perception among the public that these elections will follow the same trend.

Third, the Raje government has witnessed a turbulent tenure, with infamous incidents and controversies involving the prominent Rajput community, further adding to its woes.

The Rajputs, a powerful community constituting about 8-12 per cent of the state’s population, have been strong supporters of BJP since the party’s inception. However, controversies involving the Rajputs like the Padmaavat controversy, the infamous Anandpal and Chatur Singh encounters, the arrests of Rajputs and the party’s decision to not make popular Rajput leader Gajendra Singh Shekhawat the state BJP president, all led to further angst and alienation in the community.

Furthermore, social media too played its part in increasing this widespread frustration, with hundreds of Rajputs sharing messages like ‘Kamal Ka Phool, Humari Bhool (choosing the lotus symbol was a mistake) on WhatsApp and Facebook in response to the infamous Anandpal encounter for which they demanded a Central Bureau of Investigation enquiry.

Another popular message doing the rounds was ‘Modi tujhse bair nahin par Vasundhara teri khair nahin’ (We have nothing against you, Modi but this time Vasundhara has to go). This was primarily born amid the anti-incumbency wave in the state and the opposition also used it to its advantage.

Now this leads us to an important question: How did the tide turn a few days before the polls?

The answer to this needs a detailed analysis of the following factors at play:

1. Ticket Distribution

Troubles are running deep for the Congress not only because it has messed up its ticket distribution, but also because of the internal factions that have deeply divided the party in the state.

While Sachin Pilot, the state Congress president, was reportedly trying to get tickets for his close acquaintances, another senior leader, Ashok Gehlot, allegedly wanted tickets for his close aides in the Marwar region. Rameshwar Dudi, the Leader of Opposition in the state assembly, even went to the extent of not contesting elections when his acquaintance Kanhaiya Lal Jhanwar was denied ticket. As a result, the division within the state Congress came out in the open, not only hurting the morale of party workers but also creating negative perceptions among people.

To make matters worse, several veteran Congress leaders decided to contest these elections as independent candidates. These candidates include high-profile people like former Union minister of state Mahadeo Singh Khandela, former minister in the Ashok Gehlot government Babu Lal Nagar from Dudu (Jaipur) as well as three former district Congress presidents, a former general secretary, a former secretary and nine ex-MLAs, all of whom are set to further divide the Congress votes.

Further fuelling the fire is another interesting move by the Congress, which some analysts have hailed as a ‘master stroke’ for these elections. This was the decision by the party to field Manvendra Singh, who recently joined the Congress after leaving the BJP (Singh is the son of former BJP foreign minister Jaswant Singh), to contest against Vasundhara Raje in her own constituency, Jhalrapatan. This is likely to backfire on the Congress. Vasundhara Raje has won this constituency for the past three terms and due to the implementation of several development projects in the area, she enjoys immense support and goodwill. Singh on the other hand, is unknown in this area and the Congress, would have been better off in fielding him from the Jaisalmer-Barmer area, which could have had an impact on nearby belts. All these moves do not point towards a well thought out ticket distribution plan by the Congress.

Contrast this with the well-oiled election machinery of the BJP with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and BJP president Amit Shah ensuring the minimisation of anti-incumbency in these elections.

To illustrate, the party leadership has ensured that no unpopular or incompetent legislators are issued tickets while the 16-member Election Management Committee of the BJP has ensured representation of all castes and communities in the ticket distribution. This election committee is headed by Madan Lal Saini from the Other Backward Classes community who is also the BJP state president, with the Rajput Gajendra Singh Shekhawat, a strong Raje opponent, being the co-convenor along with Union Minister and close aide of Modi-Shah, Arjun Ram Meghwal, from the Scheduled Castes (SC) community, and the popular Jat Rashtriya Swayamsewak Sangh (RSS) aide Satish Punia chosen as co-conveners.

Three ground teams were formed by Amit Shah to get inputs and feedback from the people before distributing tickets. The state was divided into three regions, with senior party leaders being given the responsibility of gathering public opinion from the ground. This strategy worked in two-ways; first, the Modi-Shah pair cleverly but subtly checked the influence of Raje over the election and second, this also ensured that the party’s organisational structure was revived and strengthened till the booth level.

Selection of appropriate candidates was another crucial aspect of Shah-Modi’s micro social engineering in Rajasthan. In this context, the BJP has also tried to manage the Rajput angst by not giving tickets to 43 unpopular incumbent legislators, four of them being current ministers in the state. Keeping in mind the significance of the caste dynamics, the BJP has given 33 tickets to Jat candidates, 26 to the offended Rajput candidates and 60 plus tickets to SC/ST candidates while one Muslim candidate has also been given a ticket. The party has also given a ticket to Pratap Puri, who has emerged as a highly popular Hindu leader in the Marwar region as he is also the head of the popular Taratra Math in the state. He is likely to help mobilise Hindu votes in the 31-seat Marwar region.

1. The Modi-Shah Duo

As has been seen since 2014, the impact of the Modi-Shah duo in successfully swinging large number of votes cannot be underestimated.

A look at Shah’s itinerary in the last six months reveals his proactive involvement in the Rajasthan elections. Through weekly road shows, rallies and video interactions with party workers, Shah has consistently motivated the BJP cadre to ensure that public engagement in favour of the BJP is strong. He was personally involved in analysing the feedback from the ground and always kept a close eye on the happenings in the Raje government to avoid the internal divisions within the party. Shah’s political insight on these issues also contributed in the RSS finally getting involved in election campaigning with the BJP by putting aside its differences with Raje.

Coming to the star campaigner of the BJP, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s rallies and interactions are immensely crucial in state elections owing to his widespread popularity and credibility. Modi kick-started his election campaign with his first rally on 6 October in Ajmer. Through November and early December, he addressed a series of power-packed rallies in Alwar, Kota, Bhilwara, Nagaur, Bharatpur, Jaipur, Hanumangarh and Dausa among others.

The party also involved several senior leaders such as Rajnath Singh, Smriti Irani and Yogi Adityanath, who has reportedly consolidated Hindu votes with his numerous rallies across all the regions of Rajasthan.

1. The Vital RSS Support

It is well known that the BJP-RSS relationship in Rajasthan had turned sour, primarily due to Raje. Be it demolishing a temple for metro construction in Jaipur or the controversy of anti-India slogans being chanted in Didwana (Nagaur), the RSS was deeply offended by Raje. So much so, that the post of the organisational general secretary of the state BJP was lying vacant in Rajasthan for nearly eight years. This post is primarily created for a full-time RSS worker, whose task is to ensure balance and harmony between the government and the organisation. The sangh chose Chandrashekhar as the organisational general secretary on Shah’s request.

The post of BJP state president was another contentious issue where Raje and RSS stood against each other. While the sangh wanted Gajendra Shekhawat to head the state unit, Raje was strongly against him. As a result, negotiations ensued and finally RSS veteran Madan Lal Saini was chosen with consensus, to head the BJP in Rajasthan. Considering the RSS’ expansive network and support on the ground, the sangh’s active involvement in the campaigning as seen in the recent days is bound to work in the party’s favour.

1. The Tangible Impact Of Modi’s Transformative Initiatives

Prime Minister Modi in his long series of rallies in the state has carefully marketed his popular social welfare schemes like Ayushman Bharat, Ujjwala Yojana, Jan Dhan, Mudra Yojana and Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana aiming for two broad outcomes. One, to check and minimise the impact of anti-incumbency that has been the biggest hurdle to this government’s winning prospects. He has done this with a calculated approach of diverting public attention and discourse from the troubles confronting BJP due to Raje’s perceived indifference. Two, he has shifted the focus of the elections from Raje to himself, to reintroduce what can be called a ‘Modi Wave 2.0’ in Rajasthan, similar to what was done in 2013.

Furthermore, Rajasthan’s demographics also contribute to the immense credibility that Modi currently enjoys in the state. Rajasthan’s population consists of about 31 per cent people belonging to the economically backward SC and ST groups. The SC/ST groups were initially considered a Congress vote-bank, however, the ‘Modi wave’ successfully consolidated huge support from these communities in the 2013 assembly elections and the 2014 general elections, a trend likely to continue this time around too.

1. Controversial Statements

Further adding to the Congress’ misery are the recently surfaced and widely shared controversial and distasteful comments made by senior Congress leaders like Kamal Nath, Raj Babbar and Vilas Muttemwar. These comments ranging from Muslim consolidation, the age of Prime Minister Modi’s mother and his father, have all seriously damaged the party’s reputation and opinion among the masses before the polls. It seems as if the Congress has not yet learnt its lesson since the fiasco caused by the ‘chaiwala’ comment by its senior leader Mani Shankar Aiyar in 2014.

These comments not only get traction on social media but are also used as a political tool by Modi himself, to show the extent of personal targeting he faces and the issue-based bankruptcy in the opposition.

1. The Hanuman Beniwal And Kirori Lal Meena Factor

Hanuman Beniwal, who was suspended from the BJP and is presently an independent candidate contesting from Kheenvsar (Nagaur) seat has propped candidates on 57 seats under the banner of ‘Rashtriya Loktantrik Party (RLP)’. Beniwal is a hugely popular leader among the Jat community, which comprises 12-14 per cent of the state’s population and exercises influence on around 70 seats in the assembly. His recent ‘kisan hunkar rally’ organised mainly in the Marwar and Shekhawati regions attracted massive crowds. However, this is a concern for the Congress because the Jats have traditionally been Congress supporters in these constituencies. While the BJP may only face marginal losses in the Barmer district, the Congress on the other hand, will be majorly impacted by RLP dividing both the Jat and the SC/ST votes in these areas.

Although Beniwal’s party is unlikely to attract much support from the other castes, in the event that no party gets a majority in the assembly, Beniwal may just be the decisive king-maker.

Another hugely popular leader is Kirori Lal Meena, who left the BJP in 2008 and contested the 2013 assembly elections under National People’s Party. He has now re-joined the BJP and his popularity in the Meena-majority seats in east Rajasthan is certainly going to benefit the BJP.

Analysing the above factors at play, it is not unsurprising that what seemed like a cakewalk for the Congress a few months ago, now looks like an increasingly tough fight where the BJP might just have a surprise in store for everyone. However, in the event of no absolute majority for any party, Beniwal’s party and Bahujan Samaj Party may hold the keys to the corridors of power. The results coming out of Rajasthan might not follow a much-discussed template but one thing is for certain – the direction of Rajasthan after these elections will be a crucial indicator of the direction that the country will take in 2019.