It Will Be Clinton Vs Trump; Both Are Bad For India, But Trump Less So

If you are the betting type, you should bet on a Hillary Clinton Versus Donald Trump presidential contest, and possibly, looking at the election in November, a Hillary presidency, too.

After yesterday’s Super Tuesday primaries in five north-eastern states (Pennsylvania, Maryland, Connecticut, Delaware and Rhode Island), Trump looks unstoppable despite a strategic alliance between his main Republican challengers, Ted Cruz and John Kasich. And Clinton has almost sewed up the Democratic nomination by winning four of these five states.

Cruz and Kasich have decided to divvy up the next three states, with Cruz concentrating on Indiana, and Kasich on Oregon and New Mexico, but this strategy could boomerang as Republican voters may see this as an attempt to unfairly deny Trump a victory he won the hard way. Americans don’t like sore losers.

As things stand, Trump has around 949 delegates, just under 300 short of the halfway mark of 1,237. Clinton is even closer to victory, having garnered 2,138 delegates, a hop-step-and-jump away from the winning total of 2,383. The only thing that may still be in doubt is whether Trump can get his 1,237 before the Republican convention. But he will surely get it. As the near-winner, he could threaten a split in the party if the convention refuses to agree to his candidature. Any more ganging up against him will mean a sure Republican defeat in November.

That defeat may yet happen, but it is not a foregone conclusion. As things stand, Clinton leads Trump in a recent nationwide poll by only three points, but this could change once it is clear who is fighting whom in November.

From India’s point of view, who is the better option? Trump or Clinton? Actually, both are disasters for India. But Trump may be a lesser disaster, for the following reasons.

First, Republicans have traditionally been less anti-India than Democrats. Pressures on Kashmir and other issues will be lower under Republicans than Democrats. Hillary will keep lecturing us on sorting out the Kashmir issue, while Trump, with some business interests in Indian real estate, could moderate his views.

Second, Trump may go for some protectionist measures against Indian IT, but the Democrats under President Obama have been equally focused on making life harder for us. Hillary Clinton is unlikely to roll back the massive hike in visa fees for software professionals, or end the restrictions being imposed on Indian IT companies. Trump is unlikely to do anything worse.

Third, Trump is more anti-jihad than Clinton, and this means we may actually get more backing from him against Pakistan (or China) than his Democratic rival. The Clinton Foundation has received funds from major Islamic states, including Saudi Arabia and UAE, including Qatar, which backs terrorist organisations such as Hamas. So it is anybody’s guess how strong Hillary’s anti-terror stance will be. It may be as weak as President Obama’s – under whose nose we saw jihadi forces growing in strength, including the barbaric Islamic State. West Asian money flows covertly to the jihadis, and Clinton as a recipient of their money is worrisome.

Fourth, Trump has less backing from the evangelical lobby than his other Republican rival, Ted Cruz. His likely nomination also helps us expose the hypocritical nature of US politics – where human and religious rights are used as a cover handles to meddle in the affairs of the rest of the world, and especially India.

A Trump victory will enable the world to see the real America – substantially racist, misogynist, and bigoted in many of its red-neck states. Under Clinton, this racism would be covert; under Trump it won’t be.

Trump faces huge opposition within his own party and the rest of America because he may bare the real face of that part of America that is bigoted.