Tamil Nadu Politics At The Crossroads: Where Does It Go From Here?

With the passing away of J Jayalalithaa, Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu, the political situation in the state has become fluid.

Jayalalithaa was immensely popular, particularly among women. Her populist measures such as ‘Amma canteens’, serving food at subsidised prices in select city corporations, had brought her a huge following. She broke the jinx of anti-incumbency to win a successive term in May 2016, but could not live to see the term to its end.

Her last 75 days as the chief minister was spent hospitalised in the Apollo Hospitals in Chennai. Her party, All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), her cabinet ministers and the hospital owners put out a series of positive statements on her health, but it now appears that all of them were patently false. The drama surrounding these past couple of days also points to untruths, most notably the exact time of her death. Intense parleys on who should become the next chief minister, who should control the party and how her wealth should be shared must be the reasons behind the stage-managing of the events in the last 75 days.

Many decades ago, both the ruling AIADMK and Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) had become one-man outfits in Tamil Nadu. After the demise of C N Annadurai, the founder of DMK, M Karunanidhi finessed every other leader out of the party and took control of it. His initial ally and later a bitter foe, M G Ramachandran (MGR) broke away to start ADMK (later renamed AIADMK). From that point onwards, Tamil Nadu politics became a field of personal confrontation between MGR and Karunanidhi, in which MGR emerged as the clear winner. But Karunanidhi had longevity in his favour.

MGR’s protégé Jayalalithaa did not directly inherit the party from him. She had to fight her way to take control of it after MGR died in 1987. Starting from 1991, Tamil Nadu politics once again became a field of personal confrontation, this time between Jayalalithaa and Karunanidhi. Once again, Jayalalithaa emerged the winner in the political arena, but Karunanidhi has outlived her.

Neither MGR nor Jayalalithaa really developed an effective second line of leadership, or even a succession plan. Aprè moi le deluge seems to have been their attitude. While Jayalalithaa picked herself up to take over the mantle from MGR, there does not seem to be anyone of that calibre in the party now to repeat her act.

Jayalalithaa’s long-time companion and co-accused in the still pending disproportionate assets case, N Sasikala, has emerged as the kingmaker behind the scenes. The last 75 days of political management, attributed to Sasikala and possibly her supposedly estranged husband M Natarajan, has won her considerable respect among AIADMK party managers. She moved along with Jayalalithaa to Apollo and, with the help of Jayalalithaa’s close advisors, took charge of the hospital surroundings and ensured that only messages she crafted went out to the public. It is now almost certain that none of Jayalalithaa’s cabinet colleagues had any knowledge of what was going on inside the hospital. Even constitutional functionaries like the Governor could not ascertain the exact health condition of Jayalalithaa.

There were two meetings of AIADMK Members of Legislative Assembly (MLAs) on 5 November, one in the morning at the Apollo Hospital premises and the other in the evening at the party headquarters. It appears that there was a faction that wanted Sasikala to take over both the party and the government from Jayalalithaa. But sense prevailed and O Panneerselvam, who has already been the chief minister of the state twice before (both the times when Jayalalithaa was convicted by the courts of corruption) was handed the government. No decision seems to have been taken on who will be the next general secretary of the party, but it is now almost certain that it will be Sasikala.

Sasikala and her family control Jaya TV, the party’s television channel. They also control the vast assets Jayalalithaa has acquired over the last few decades. For a brief period in 2015, Sasikala was banished from Jayalalithaa’s Poes Garden residence and her family members or business associates removed from the directorship of companies owned by Jayalalithaa and Sasikala. This was however short-lived, and they came together once again. Even earlier, in 2011, Sasikala and her relatives were banished from the Poes Garden residence by Jayalalithaa, but they had patched up then as well.

Sasikala has filled key positions in the party with her Thevar caste members. The new Chief Minister O Panneerselvam is also from the Thevar caste. While Jayalalithaa was able to deftly handle the caste equations in her party, it is not clear how Sasikala and Panneerselvam will manage it. Neither are there tall enough leaders to forge a working relationship with other dominant groups, such as the Kongu Vellalar, Vanniar and Nadar castes. Further, Sasikala and Panneerselvam don’t have the grassroots support, charisma, sophistication and command over the language that Jayalalithaa had. But Sasikala’s biggest strength may be her wily and crafty husband Natarajan.

Inherent caste contradictions and lust for power may propel AIADMK to break into multiple pieces. One of the groups may move towards DMK, which may help DMK come back to power. A group dominated by Thevar leaders may remain with Sasikala. A third group may, surprisingly, move towards the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Recent by-elections have shown that Vijayakanth-led Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam, or DMDK, has gone down below the BJP in garnering popular votes.

The BJP is unpopular in Tamil Nadu’s hotbed of Dravidian politics. A section of the people believe that New Delhi has taken control of Tamil Nadu politics through the back door. They are now of the opinion that the BJP may force Governor’s rule in Tamil Nadu, or acquire AIADMK by stealth and, therefore, the power in Tamil Nadu.

The DMK, the principal opposition party, has its fair share of problems. Karunanidhi is too old and ill. His sons Stalin and Azhagiri are feuding over the control of DMK. As of now, Stalin has taken full control of the party. As recently as last week, both Stalin and Azhagiri were brought together by their father for a conciliatory meeting. The DMK will be hoping that many AIADMK sympathisers will now move to support them. But most of the women supporters of Jayalalithaa may not transfer their sympathies to DMK and may choose to look elsewhere.

At least ten political parties, including Congress and the BJP, are eyeing the disenchanted voters. Then, there are a bunch of newly formed but almost nondescript outfits attempting to fill the vacuum. Of all these, the DMK and the BJP, because of their sharp ideological extremes and organisational and money power, will be the biggest gainers. The AIADMK, of course, will be the biggest loser.