Crown Of Thorns: Why Both Trump And Clinton, If Elected, Will Have Troubled Presidencies

The real question one needs to ask about the US presidential election is this: no matter who wins, can the winner be effective, given the huge scandals that they have been associated with? What is the chance they will be ousted from office mid-term? What is the probability that either of them will win a second term, given their negatives?

In the case of Hillary Clinton, the clear frontrunner right now with a 4.3 percent lead over Donald Trump (according to RealClearPolitics.com’s moving average of polls), the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) made a surprise announcement last week that it had uncovered “emails that appear to be pertinent” to the case involving Clinton’s illegal use of private email servers when she was Secretary of State. Clinton had deleted nearly 33,000 private emails from her server even after she was given a subpoena in the case.

Since this case is unlikely to be closed anytime soon, it is fair to assume that Clinton will be under an investigative cloud even after she becomes President, assuming she wins the 8 November vote.

In the case of Donald Trump, quite apart from the political embarrassment caused to the Republican party over his misogynist statements about women, many alleged victims of his predatory advances have now come out of the closet accusing him of sexual harassment or inappropriate physical contacts with them.

Once again, if Trump does – against the odds – become President, he may well have to fend off repeated legal assaults in these sexual harassment cases, not to speak of any business peccadilloes indulged in by the Trump organisation.

There are two reasons to believe that neither Clinton nor Trump will get off lightly once either one of them becomes President.

First, there is simply too much evidence in the public domain for any law-abiding country to just ignore them just because they are President. Remember, Richard Nixon had to resign midway, and needed to be pardoned by his successor Gerald Ford. As for Bill Clinton, who was involved in the Monica Lewinsky sex scandal while in the White House, an attempt was made by Congress to impeach him for perjury and obstruction of justice, but it failed as some Republicans crossed the floor and voted in favour of Clinton.

Second, the 2016 Presidential election has been the bitterest of them all, and intensely negative. Donald Trump has polarised the vote, and there is bitterness on both sides of the party divide. In this context, neither Clinton nor Trump can be sure that the cases against them will just fade away quietly. Trump, in fact, has not agreed to accept a loss quietly. He may thus demand more enquiries against Clinton in the emails case; if Trump unexpectedly wins, his enemies in both the Democratic and the Republican parties may seek to undermine him in Congress or the courts.

There is an outside chance that the President can pardon himself/herself, but a provision in US law which says that he/she “shall have the power to grant reprieves and pardons for offences against the US, except in cases of impeachment” means both Clinton and Trump can theoretically pardon themselves. However, neither is likely to get away by doing so, as Congress will surely start impeachment proceedings, and the question of a President pardoning himself/herself will finally be decided by the Supreme Courts.

But two things can be predicted about both Trump and Clinton: both of them will face huge opposition even if they win, as the country is polarised like never before; and there is a 50-50 chance that neither will get elected for a second term. Reason: both of them are unpopular, with Clinton’s favourability ratings being -7.4 percent and Trump’s -21.2 percent, according to RealClearPolitics.

The choice in 2016 is between two unpalatable candidates; what is the chance that they will face unpalatable opponents in 2020? And what is the likelihood that a President on the defensive from Day One will be able to tackle America’s many crises, including the problem of a broken economy?