PM Modi's Afghanistan Visit : India Gets Back Into The Great Game Again

The timing of Mr Modi’s visit to Kabul somehow fits in perfectly and the takeaways from the brief visit will far outweigh the time he spends at Kabul.

The ongoing security situation in Afghanistan forced President Barack Obama to take a decision to keep the date flexible for the final withdrawal of the remnants of the ISAF. Obviously Afghanistan is too important a country to abandon considering that the New Great Game is being played around its extremities besides the many other geo-strategic considerations connected to ideology. For India it seemed the game was up just a year ago, that too after a traditionally strong relationship over many years, and considerable financial assistance through the troubled past.

The cooling off against India arose out of a change in government in Kabul with the coming of Ashraf Ghani as President replacing the India friendly Hamid Karzai. Ghani’s was a legitimate experiment based on perceptions that it was Pakistan that held the key to eventual peace in Afghanistan by exercising control over the Taliban, helping negotiate an agreement with it besides having a long mutual border.

Ghani also believed that with receding US interest and strong Pak-China relations it was China which would influence future discourse in Afghanistan. Obviously for Ghani there was little place for India on the high table. It led him to make a much spoken of visit to the office of Pakistan Army Chief General Raheel Sharif at Rawalpindi.

Prime Minister Modi will in all probability visit Afghanistan in the backdrop of the failed strategy of President Ashraf Ghani. That happened because Pakistan could not get the Taliban to play ball and put a hold over its summer offensive; the ensuing campaign cost the Afghan security forces almost 8000 casualties, with a major attack in Kabul thrown in. That brought Ghani back to India who in the interim period showed complete maturity by taking no pro-active interest towards securing strategic space in Afghanistan and letting Ghani drive his own policy.

Mr Modi will be going to Afghanistan riding on the back of a successful retrieval of the Afghanistan policy. President Ghani realized that Indian goodwill with the Afghan people, its soft power approach and rising graph in international politics with Modi at the helm would probably balance the negative situation arising out of Pakistan’s inability to run the course effectively. The China factor in the game remains a mystery and its obvious disinterest and inability to influence things has also influenced Ghani.

Two things played in India’s favor, both of which could also have been equally in favor of China. First is the concern of the Afghan leadership towards the inability of the Afghan National Army (ANA) to thwart Taliban designs because of the lack of lethal offensive weapons. Second is the fact that Afghanistan realizes that it needs the financial aid to remain afloat; the possibility of ‘aid fade’ as the final withdrawal progresses is very much existent. In both matters China was probably better placed to deliver but for some strange reasons or lack of any China does not seem too confident of handling its role as a peace enabler in Afghanistan.

Mr Modi is going to Kabul just after India’s acceptance to supply 4xMi-25 Russian armed helicopters permission for which has also been granted by Russia. There will be demand on him for more lethal weaponry including artillery pieces, grenade launchers and even small arms. The ISAF does not wish to supply arms which may fall into the hands of the Taliban and indirectly assist it in its quest for complete military domination. However, there has to be a degree of risk undertaken and the ANA has performed creditably even without the requisite lethal weaponry.

India has been providing it non-lethal equipment and training a large number of soldiers and officers in its training establishments. All this while, it was reluctant to do more simply because of Pakistan’s serious objections. PM Modi’s government has taken a brave decision. The issue would also have been raised by President Ghani in the Heart of Asia Conference at Islamabad.

The Prime Minister will hand over three of the helicopters to the Afghans during his visit but will this be enough? It’s a good beginning because weaponry needs time to absorb and in due course more will follow, also from Russia. Armed helicopters are force multipliers and can be extremely helpful in breaking sieges of the Kunduz type recently experienced by the ANA where casualties were particularly high. They can also be employed for surveillance and quick reaction something the ANA will need all the time.

But clearly, the Afghan leaders are going to ask Mr Modi for more military aid and India will have to be in consultation with various stakeholders over that. As that increases there will be a requirement of deploying Indian technical personnel for maintenance and training which will not go down too well with Pakistan who fears that Indian military presence in Afghanistan is only for the purpose of opening conduits towards Baluchistan and linkages with elements destabilizing Pakistan.

Mr Modi will be going to Moscow from Kabul. The Kabul touchdown will probably give him an opportunity to hear out what the Afghans have to say about Daesh and its presence and influence in Afghanistan. There are many opinions about that but the Russians will also have the issue on their agenda for discussion with Mr Modi. Russia fears that Daesh has already entered Afghanistan and is in the process of muscling its way to eventually control the narcotics trade and use Afghan territory to establish influence in Central Asia, its underbelly. Russia’s proactive action in Syria and Iraq is not the least because of these fears. Russia has a sizeable Muslim minority and has worries in Dagestan and Chechnya too.

Two other issues in the background are significant. First, the recent signing of the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) pipeline project at Mary in Turkmenistan which will cost 10 million USD and be ready by 2020. India will benefit from 33 percent of the delivery which will meet 25 percent of its requirement of natural gas. The deal has been signed after a five year hiatus which saw much suspense. It will be of immense benefit to all signatories and President Ghani appears confident of stabilizing the North and Western portions through which the pipeline will run. That makes Pakistan also a stakeholder for early peace in Afghanistan.

Coming in the wake of the India Pakistan decision to commence a Comprehensive Bilateral Dialogue Mr Modi’s visit to Kabul may give him a little time to discuss with President Ghani how Indo Afghan interests must be progressed without impinging on the Dialogue with Pakistan. If India, Pakistan and Afghanistan can ensure a common approach towards security of Afghanistan TAPI may finally be realized and do immense good for the cause of all three.

Finally, Mr Modi’s presence in Kabul will add much luster as he inaugurates the new Parliament building built by India, a symbol of India’s democratic culture. The construction commenced with full Indian funding and assistance in 2009 and was to cost 45 million USD which has now escalated to almost double that figure. There is tremendous goodwill for India among the people of Afghanistan.

India’s soft power approach has traditionally related Afghans to the legendary ‘Kabuliwala’, the story which projects the simple Afghan who could only do good and no harm to anyone. It is important that this relationship continues with that perception because Afghanistan is one of the most important countries for India from every angle. Mr Modi isn’t going to Kabul a moment too late or too early. The timing somehow fits in perfectly and the takeaways from the brief visit will far outweigh the time he spends at Kabul.