The Taliban Are On The Offensive. Will India Step Up Its Aid To Afghanistan?

Despite a barrage of US-led airstrikes in the southern province of Helmand, the under-equipped Afghan security forces struggle to ward off the Taliban in the region. Rearranged under a new leadership following the death of former leaders Mullah Omar and Mullah Akhtar Muhammad Mansour, the Taliban has stepped up its attacks in the areas adjoining Lashkar Gah and Kunduz City. While the establishment in Afghanistan suggests that the government forces hold major population centres in the area under attack, reports indicate that the forces are merely holding a handful of administrative buildings.

Notwithstanding the role India currently plays in the region, the ongoing crisis in Afghanistan provides it with a unique opportunity to find its place in the regional security architecture. With Afghanistan reaching out to India during Army Chief General Qadam Shah Shahim’s visit to New Delhi and the United States’ efforts to engage India in Afghanistan’s precarious security dynamics, New Delhi is likely to engage in providing limited security and economic assistance.

“The U.S. is in favor of India providing greater security assistance to Afghanistan,” Commander General John Nicholson of the US Military was quoted as saying during his second visit to India. It is interesting to note that this perceived change in policy comes at a time when the US is looking to gradually limit its aid to Afghanistan, and more importantly, at a point when the two countries have signed a military logistic agreement and the relations between the two are on an upward trajectory.

New Delhi has played a significant role in Afghanistan’s reconstruction following the US-led campaign that ousted Taliban from Kabul. Over the past decade, the country has spent over $3 billion in reconstruction effort which includes the construction of Salma Dam and the Afghan National Parliament in Kabul. The military cooperation between the two has been on the rise with India training high-ranking Afghan cadets in Indian military academies and transferring critical military equipment including Mi-25 attack helicopters.

In view of the ongoing and intensifying crisis, Afghan President Ashraf Ghani’s likely visit to India next week will shape India’s future engagement with the country. As the NATO draws down forces and limits its defence aid to Afghanistan, the country will need partners in the region for assistance in security and reconstruction.

As the leaders of the three nations meet for the recently announced US-India-Afghanistan trilateral dialogue on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly, decisions on India’s economic and security contribution to Afghanistan will likely be discussed. The decision to hold trilateral talks has been met with hostility in Islamabad- often accused by Kabul of acting against Afghanistan’s interests.

With the changing geopolitical dynamics in the region, including India’s worsening relations with Pakistan, China’s apparent interest in influencing Kabul and the security vacuum in Afghanistan, India will step up its aid in an attempt to secure its varied interest in the region.