Nitish Kumar has been his characteristic discreet self after the UP elections. His electoral victory greetings were an oblique attack on the Opposition’s antagonistic stand on demonetisation. But will that translate into his return into the NDA?

Nothing is clear till now. But Nitish Kumar is one wily politician and even his inner circle of ministers and party loyalists can’t fathom his next move. He was being projected as Modi’s challenger in 2019 elections but that looks like a thing of the past now. Nitish Kumar hasn’t given up his prime ministerial ambitions but he knows how things stand currently. BJP is virtually unbeatable until every single party amalgamates into a mammoth coalition and ensures seamless transfer of votes to each other. Considering the varying ideologies of parties, their supremos, their voter blocks and of course their ego and insecurities, this looks like a far cry.

So, Could Nitish Kumar be pursuing a plan B? Helping BJP win clandestinely and then use it to his advantage i.e. strengthen his position in Bihar? It is highly likely, bearing in mind Lalu’s hurry to install his son as the CM of Bihar. Nitish Kumar didn’t campaign for the SP alliance despite sharing power with Congress in Bihar, and this has set the tongues rolling after BJP pummelled the opposition in UP Elections.

Let us come to Arvind Kejriwal. The once-symbol-of-hope activist is down and trampled. Every single analyst and political observer prophesied an AAP wave in Punjab. Punjab was supposed to be the political headquarter of AAP from where its tentacles were supposed to be spread to every part of the country. The wave turned out to be a scattered shower. A spirited Congress party led by the dynamic Captain Amarinder Singh and blessed by the absence of Rahul Gandhi crushed the Aam Aadmi Party. And Goa’s complete neglect of AAP proved that barring the exception of a few north Indian states, Arvind Kejriwal is a nonentity in rest of India. The ever so energetic Delhi CM has almost abandoned Twitter. It’s evident that he is shattered and sore. MCD elections is the only hope for Aam Aadmi Party to stamp its authority again but looks like Nitish Kumar’s plan B is set to spoil his chances.

But how?

There was one major difference between AAP’s groundworks for the Delhi elections in 2015 and that of Congress and the BJP. AAP was very quick to realize the importance of Bihar and UP voters (especially from the Poorvanchal region). Delhi, especially East Delhi has a sizeable number of voters from Bihar and UP. There are over 6 lakh voters from the region. There are as many as 30 seats in which people from UP and Bihar form about 30 to 40 per cent of the total voter strength. Deoli has 48 per cent voters from UP and Bihar.

In a closely contested election, the UP-Bihar voter block can swing advantage from one party to another. AAP fielded 11 candidates from the region and reaped rich rewards, while BJP and Congress, the two seasoned parties were crushed to chastening defeats. While Congress still looks unrehearsed, but BJP is all set to woo the UP-Bihar voter base. Manoj Tiwari, a Bihari himself and a cultural icon of UP and Bihar now leads the Delhi unit. And now with Nitish Kumar in the fray, votes from UP and Bihar are fated to be split between the three parties.

Nitish Kumar showed great camaraderie with Arvind Kejriwal in the run up to Bihar Assembly Elections 2015. Their pictures holding hands and hugging each other were a matter of great interest in the national media, but things have changed entirely on the ground. In MCD election 2017, however, Nitish Kumar is geared up to disremember his amity with Kejriwal and steal the very votebank that propelled Kejriwal to power. JDU’s Delhi unit has already started taking up the issues of unauthorised colonies, unemployment, power, water and sanitation. Nitish Kumar has fielded candidates in all 272 seats. Of course, winning even a single seat in MCD elections will be extremely difficult for JDU but it can effectively play the role of a vote cutter.

BJP’s stable voter base never ditches it, so with some help from the wily Nitish Kumar, it can effectively trounce Arvind Kejriwal.

MCD elections can make or break Kejriwal. A victory will see him hitting the media and social media with newfound enthusiasm, but a loss will pave the ground of his downfall and subsequent eviction from the annals of Indian Politics.

Atul Kumar Mishra

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