Exhibit 1: State Election Schedule Over The Next Five Years

Between now and May 2019, we have a total of 13 states going to assembly polls. Out of this, seven states can be classified as ‘major’ states (with more than nine Lok Sabha seats). If we extend the date of reckoning by six months (say, until the end of 2019), we would end up with a total of 17 states, with 10 of them having substantial BJP and National Democratic Alliance (NDA) presence. The table above does not show the strength/relative presence of NDA allies.

Without taking a view on the relative merits, if the government decides to go for simultaneous elections, looking at the election schedule over the next 18-24 months, calling for early Lok Sabha elections coinciding with the state elections in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan may provide the best possibility for a successful re-election campaign.

Here are the options before Narendra Modi and BJP president Amit Shah:

Status quo – no change in the schedule of the Lok Sabha and assembly elections during 2018-19
Call for ‘simultaneous elections’ to the Lok Sabha in May 2019 and select assemblies as per NITI Aayog recommendation
Identical to the above except holding the Lok Sabha elections concurrent with the assembly elections in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan
Advance Lok Sabha polls to December 2018. Additionally, hold assembly elections for select states going to polls in 2019 where BJP/NDA are in power. ‘Simultaneous elections’ to be decided later.

Option 1 Is The Least Favoured For These Reasons:

In all the three states, the BJP faces anti-incumbency; a massive 15 years in the case of Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. Given the recent Gujarat polls, the BJP would tread with caution.

There appears to be absolutely no benefit in facing three crucial state elections in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan in November-December 2018 and the general elections in May 2019. If the election results go south, there is very little the government can do in the intervening period while having to contend with losing the momentum. If the BJP loses two or more states among the three states, then the narrative would firmly be with the opposition.The other minor quibble: In the case that the BJP actually sweeps all three states, there is a chance of over confidence seeping in. This is counterintuitive but recall 2004, where the national elections were advanced after the party swept the same three states.

Bringing Us To Options 2 And 3

In theory, the benefits of ‘simultaneous elections’ appear solid – arguably lower costs, better election manpower management and most importantly, the Prime Minister would not be subjected to relentless campaigning and arguably free up his government to focus on governance. ‘Simultaneous elections’ will however require a fair bit of political discussion and the Modi government may be loath to forcing an outcome on all stakeholders. A more considered approach would be to keep floating this for now and take it up after the next Lok Sabha elections. By then the BJP and NDA’s Rajya Sabha position may have improved significantly.

This Leaves Us With Option 4

The optimal solution, therefore, could be to advance the Lok Sabha elections and time it with these three states – Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. In addition, the party could seek dissolution and advance the elections of other states, where it is in power such as Maharashtra, Haryana and Jharkhand. States such as Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Jammu & Kashmir, ruled currently with/by an ally or a potential ally could also be part of this election cycle. Holding the state election concurrently with the national election could provide a significant advantage for the party and the ally.

What Would The BJP Do Ultimately?

Ultimately, the call for early elections would be based on hard-nosed calculations regarding the party’s chances in the three states of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. In Lok Sabha 2014, the BJP rode to power by maxing some key states like Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan among others. Any significant reduction in these states would make the road to Mission 2019 that much harder.

Sethu Narayanan

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