With Chirag Paswan Back In Fold, BJP Is Finally Moving Towards Reducing Reliance On Nitish Kumar

The contest between Chirag Paswan and his uncle Pashupati Kumar Paras is over. Under the fold of National Democratic Alliance (NDA), Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) Ram Vilas will contest five seats, including Hajipur. 

From Hajipur, Chirag himself is expected to lead the charge, establishing his authority over the legacy of his father, Ram Vilas Paswan. Paras has resigned from the Narendra Modi cabinet and is reportedly in talks with Indian National Developmental Inclusive (INDI) Alliance.

What Worked For Chirag Paswan

Chirag Paswan’s history of unconditional support to Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) played a big role in the seat sharing arrangement. It was Chirag who had convinced his father Ram Vilas Paswan to join NDA for 2014 elections. In his Delhi days, he established a good repertoire with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) establishment. 

In the 2020 legislative assembly elections of Bihar, Chirag Paswan fielded 130 candidates. Though LJP was not part of NDA in state elections, the party only competed against Janata Dal (United) or JD(U), not BJP. By cutting down JD(U)'s vote-bank, LJP became a catalyst in establishing BJP as a senior partner in the alliance with Nitish Kumar's party.

In 2021, LJP bifurcated into factions led by Paras and Chirag Paswan. Paras joined NDA and became Union minister. Despite being out of NDA-fold, Chirag Paswan did not badmouth the BJP. He even kept calling himself the ‘Hanuman’ of PM Modi. 

While maintaining goodwill with BJP, junior Paswan travelled through Bihar and built a support base for himself. His ‘Jan Ashirwad Yatra’ gained a considerable amount of traction in the state. This appears to have paid off for him.

How It Can Impact Alliance Equation In Bihar 

Chirag Paswan’s entry has made intra-NDA fights an interesting contest.

Due to LJP’s role in the diminishing the status of an already troubled JD(U) in 2020, Nitish Kumar has no particular liking for Chirag Paswan.

Locals even attribute the 2021 bifurcation of LJP between uncle Paras and nephew Chirag to the JD(U). Paras has a strong foothold in JD(U) while Chirag has his influence among BJP and Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh.

Chirag Paswan’s personal popularity has also increased JD(U)’s discomfort. His rallies increasingly bring good numbers, especially youth.

At the time when negative news from Bihar dominated national headlines, Chirag Paswan tried to change the narrative with ‘Bihar First, Bihari First’. The trajectory of his growth as a politician and his closeness to the BJP is a threat to JD(U)’s position in the alliance.

Why BJP Is With JD(U)

Nitish Kumar's frequent shifts in allegiance have earned him the nickname 'paltu chacha' in Bihar. However, this track record hasn't dissuaded the BJP from forging alliances with him. Despite his history, Kumar offers solutions to numerous challenges faced by the BJP in the state.

First, the party has no credible face in Bihar for chief ministerial post. Currently, BJP's Samrat Choudhary is Deputy Chief Minister of the state.

Kumar has made a name for himself by fiercely opposing 'jungle raj'. Women voters particularly support him for liquor ban. Although his popularity has diminished in recent years, BJP doesn't seem to have a face that can overshadow him in state politics.

Second reason is Kumar’s influence over Dalit (19.65 per cent of population) and Extremely Backward Class (36.01 per cent) votes. Kumar is credited with the introduction of the Mahadalit umbrella in 2007.

Chirag Paswan Penetrating Kumar’s Political Demography

In the last decade, glimpses of return of jungle raj in Bihar has resulted in decline in face value of Kumar. It is creating a space for Chirag Paswan.

Chirag Paswan currently holds sway over 5-6 per cent of votes in Bihar. With uncle Paras’ future dwindling, this share is likely to back Chirag Paswan's faction of the party firmly.

Kumar, on the other hand, is in the final leg of his political journey. His unilateral control over the party means that the probable heir won't enjoy as much support from the cadre as he did.

For BJP, this means looking for a new alliance partner as well as a credible face. Junior Paswan ticks all the boxes and his presence in the alliance, the BJP believes, significantly limits the leverage that Kumar enjoys.