In Thakur-Dominated Garhwal, It's Brahmin Versus Brahmin, With Advantage BJP

The five Lok Sabha constituencies in Uttarakhand are set to go for polls in the first phase of the national election on 19 April.

In the 2014 and 2019 elections, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) had secured victories on all of the five seats.

In 2019, the BJP garnered an impressive vote share of over 68 per cent in the Garhwal seat, marking the highest among all five seats secured by the party in the hill state.

The Garhwal Lok Sabha seat comprises five districts — Chamoli, Nainital (part), Pauri Garhwal, Rudraprayag, and Tehri Garhwal (part) — and is spread across 14 assembly segments.

In the 2019 Lok Sabha poll, BJP candidate Tirath Singh Rawat defeated Congress' Manish Khanduri by over 3 lakh votes.

However, in the 2024 election, both the BJP and Congress have fielded new candidates from the seat.

This time, the Garhwal constituency, with its diverse demographic, is set to witness a Brahmin versus Brahmin contest amid a Thakur-majority electorate.

Anil Baluni, the BJP candidate, and Ganesh Godiyal from the Congress are locking horns in this high-stakes electoral battle.

Both candidates hail from the Brahmin community, which constitutes about 30 per cent of the population in Garhwal, whereas Thakurs leads with a 45 per cent demographic share.

Despite the Thakur dominance, historical election results have often swayed in favour of Brahmin candidates on the seat. As many as seven Brahmin candidates have emerged victorious from the seat since 1991.

Anil Baluni, the national media in-charge of the BJP and a Rajya Sabha MP, has been selected by the party as its candidate from the Garhwal seat.

His affiliation with the BJP and alignment with the party's national leadership, particularly under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, has fortified his position in the constituency.

He filed his nomination papers from the Constituency on 26 March.

After filing the nomination, Baluni said that the 2019 election stands out from his past experiences due to the level of public engagement.

He said he met numerous local residents and BJP candidates during campainging, noting that upon spotting the BJP's flag, people spontaneously start chanting "Modi Modi."

Baluni's political journey is marked by significant contributions to local and national politics, enhancing connectivity and development projects in the region.

On the other side, Ganesh Godiyal brings his own set of credentials and political legacy.

As a former president of the Uttarakhand Pradesh Congress Committee and a two-time MLA, Godiyal's influence in the state's Congress has been notable.

However, he lost two consecutive state assembly elections from the Srinagar seat in 2017 and 2022 to the BJP's Dhan Singh Rawat.

After filing nomination for the constituency on 27 March, Godiyal expressed confidence of winning the seat.

However, the BJP has historically shown a strong performance in the seat, clinching the seat five times out of the last seven elections.

As both candidates are campaigning for elections, issues such as local governance, employment, migration, and welfare of the armed forces personnel (a significant voter base in Garhwal) are at the forefront of their campaigns.

Poll analysts suggest a leaning towards the BJP in the region, considering the party's historical dominance and the intricate caste dynamics at play that may favour the party.

However, Godiyal's grassroots connection and Congress' strategic campaigning could stir the electoral dynamics, making the upcoming elections a closely watched affair.