Ten Constituencies To Track As BJP Aims To Increase Bengal Tally Towards Target Of 370 Seats In 2024

With Prime Minister Narendra Modi setting the target of winning 370 seats in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has identified 10 seats in Bengal that it can add to its 2019 tally of 18.

The 10 seats are Arambagh, Bardhaman Purba, Birbhum, Bolpur, Dum Dum, Kanthi, Krishnanagar, Malda Dakshin, Sreerampur and Tamluk. 

Of these 10 Lok Sabha seats, the BJP lost  seven — Arambagh, Bardhaman Purba, Birbhum, Dum Dum, Krishananagar, Malda Dakshin and Sreerampur — by less than one lakh votes. 

Though the BJP lost the remaining three seats — Bolpur, Kanthi and Tamluk — by over one lakh votes, the saffron party stands a very good chance of bagging these seats this time. 

The Trinamool Congress, which won Bolpur and Birbhum in 2019 by more than 1.06 lakh and 88,000 votes respectively, is on the backfoot this time due to the arrest of its strongman, Anubrata Mondal, in connection with the cattle-smuggling and illegal mining scam. 

The Trinamool district unit in Birbhum (Bolpur Lok Sabha seat falls within Birbhum district) is demoralised and is riven by dissensions and factionalism. Also, the Trinamool’s image has suffered due to Mondal’s arrest and his ongoing incarceration in Delhi’s Tihar Jail. 

The BJP is, thus, in a good position in both the seats.

Also, despite fierce attacks on BJP cadres and supporters by Trinamool goons during and after the 2021 assembly elections, the BJP has been able to hold on to its organisational base in Birbhum district due to the efforts of a few committed leaders there. 

As for Kanthi and Tamluk, these are the fiefs of the Adhikari family (Suvendu Adhikari, his brothers and his father Sisir) which is now firmly with the BJP. 

Sisir Adhikari won the Kanthi Lok Sabha seat for the Trinamool in 2019 by over 1.11 lakh votes. His son (and Suvendu Adhiakri’s brother) Dibyendu Adhikari won Tamluk on a Trinamool ticket by over 1.9 lakh votes. 

Since then, Sisir Adhikari and his son Dibyendu have dissociated themselves from the Trinamool. A large number of Trinamool cadres and functionaries have also followed in their footsteps. 

The Trinamool has, thus, been rendered organisationally weak in Purba Medinipur district; both Kanthi and Tamluk Lok Sabha seats fall in this district. 

The BJP has fielded Soumendu Adhikari (another son of Sisir Adhikari) from Kanthi this time and former Calcutta High Court judge Abhijit Gangopadhyay is likely to be fielded by the BJP from Tamluk. 

“We will definitely win both these seats this time. That’s my personal guarantee,” Suvendu Adhikari told Swarajya. 

In a Lok Sabha election, particularly in constituencies with a very high population density (as in Bengal), a victory margin of less than one lakh is considered to be a modest win. 

“When turnouts (number of people voting) are, on an average, 13 lakh (as in Bengal), a margin of below one lakh in a multi-cornered contest cannot be considered to be a decisive win,” said Soumen Das, a professor of political science in Calcutta University. 

What is significant is that the BJP increased its vote share substantially in these seats over the years. In all the seven seats that the BJP lost by less than one lakh votes, it increased its vote share between 14 per cent and 32 per cent. 

Poll analysts say that such a substantial rise in vote shares holds good future prospects of the party in the second position. 

Again, since all constituencies will be witnessing at least three-cornered contests — and even four-cornered contests if the Congress and CPI(M) fail to stitch a seat-sharing deal — the BJP’s chances of winning these seats brightens even more. 

The Arambagh seat, say BJP leaders, will be an easy pick for the party. Not only because the BJP candidate lost by an extremely narrow margin of 1,142 votes, but also because the BJP is in a very strong position there. 

The BJP won four of the seven assembly segments under Arambagh Lok Sabha seat in 2021, and has been gaining ground in the three assembly segments that the Trinamool won. Also, the Trinamool has suffered organisational losses there. 

Anti-incumbency against the sitting Trinamool MP from Bardhaman Purba Lok Sabha seat, Sunil Kumar Mandal, has peaked. That’s why the Trinamool has not given him the ticket this time in the hope that a fresh candidate will help it overcome the anti-incumbency. 

However, dissensions within the Trinamool unit here, mobilisation of Hindu votes in the BJP’s favour, and a sharp erosion in the Trinamool’s image due to the involvement of its party functionaries in various scams makes the BJP confident of winning this seat. 

Dum Dum is another seat where the BJP’s prospects are very bright. The three-time Trinamool MP, Saugata Roy, is past his prime. Also, the Trinamool has suffered many desertions from its ranks and the party faces considerable anti-incumbency. 

Dum Dum will also witness a fierce fight between Saugata Roy and senior CPI(M) leader Sujan Chakraborty, thus benefiting the BJP which has a strong organisational base there. The BJP won the seat twice (in 1998 and 1999). 

The Trinamool, say political analysts, erred in fielding Mahua Moitra (who was expelled from the Lok Sabha over the bribes-for-questions scandal) once again from Krishnanagar. Her image has taken a severe beating and even local Trinamool functionaries and workers are unhappy with her. 

Krishnanagar has witnessed a consolidation of Hindu votes in recent years and the implementation of the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) will swing a number of Hindus in the saffron party’s favour. 

The BJP has gained a lot of ground in the Malda Dakshin Lok Sabha seat over the past five years. Growing assertion by Muslims emboldened by Mamata Banerjee’s blatant appeasement of the community has turned Hindus in this constituency lying close to the India-Bangladesh border against the Trinamool. 

A multi-cornered contest here will result in a division of the Muslim vote between the Trinamool and the Congress, thus benefiting the BJP. 

In Sreerampur Lok Sabha seat that straddles Hooghly and Howrah districts, a multi-cornered contest between the Trinamool Congress, CPI(M) and Indian Secular Front (ISF) will fracture the anti-BJP vote as well as the Muslim vote. Muslims form a substantial section of the electorate at Sreerampur. 

Also, the Trinamool’s Kalyan Banerjee who won this seat in 2009, 2014 and 2019, has become quite unpopular in his constituency. He is not liked by local Trinamool leaders and cadres due to his arrogance and disdainful attitude towards ordinary workers. 

As in the rest of the state, there has been a consolidation of Hindu votes in Sreerampur due to communal disturbances in Hooghly and Howrah districts in recent years. The ruling party’s, and the state administration’s, partiality towards the minority community and against the majority have made many Hindus angry.  

All these factors, along with the overall disillusionment with the Trinamool over the involvement of its leaders in various scams, along with the state’s poor financial conditions, acute unemployment and lack of development, are expected to benefit the BJP.