Blogs
Anomalously Low Variability In West Bengal’s Covid-19 Death Stats
Anonymous Contributor
Nov 21, 2020, 07:22 PM | Updated 07:24 PM IST
Save & read from anywhere!
Bookmark stories for easy access on any device or the Swarajya app.
Like most Indians, I stare daily at Covid-19 statistics, hoping for progress.
As I did so, an oddity in daily reported Covid-19 deaths stood out, specific to a particular state.
What follows is a rudimentary analysis to highlight the same.
I took daily deaths by state over last the 100-days (Aug 11th to Nov 18th), from https://api.covid19india.org/documentation/csv/.
For simplicity and ease of presentation, I limited myself to the top-10 states (by cumulative deaths over this period).
These 10 states cumulatively account for 82 per cent of all-India deaths over this period.
I ran a simple analysis of how much variability is there in this data, using two simple ratios:
- Coefficient of variation = standard deviation/mean
- An alternate coefficient of variation that doesn’t use simple-average, just in case mean was messed up by outlier data points or prior period adjustments. For this, I use Inter-quartile range (75th minus 25th percentile) divided by median
The aim of both ratios is to gauge the extent of variation around an average, for each state.
Here’s the data and one state stands out for an anomalously low variability in daily Covid-19 reported deaths:
Here’s the same in graphical form. To compare states with diverse average deaths on same scale, each state’s daily deaths are divided by that state’s average daily deaths and multiplied by 100.
So, every state’s average daily deaths is set to 100 and squiggliness of graph reflects the variability in data around a shared mean of 100.
While I refrain from making explicit inferences from this deviant data, it’s enough of an outlier to ponder about what lies beneath.
Save & read from anywhere!
Bookmark stories for easy access on any device or the Swarajya app.
Support Swarajya's 50 Ground Reports Project & Sponsor A Story
Every general election Swarajya does a 50 ground reports project.
Aimed only at serious readers and those who appreciate the nuances of political undercurrents, the project provides a sense of India's electoral landscape. As you know, these reports are produced after considerable investment of travel, time and effort on the ground.
This time too we've kicked off the project in style and have covered over 30 constituencies already. If you're someone who appreciates such work and have enjoyed our coverage please consider sponsoring a ground report for just Rs 2999 to Rs 19,999 - it goes a long way in helping us produce more quality reportage.
You can also back this project by becoming a subscriber for as little as Rs 999 - so do click on this links and choose a plan that suits you and back us.
Click below to contribute.