Why Thrissur May Be BJP's Best Chance Yet To Secure A Lok Sabha MP From Kerala

For some time now, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has maintained that its best bet in Kerala is Thrissur parliamentary constituency. This detailed ground report infers that the party’s belief may not be misplaced.

Their candidate is the famous award-winning actor, Suresh Gopi. He is up against V S Sunil Kumar of the Communist Party of India (CPI; not to be confused with its senior ally, the Communist Party of India (Marxist), the CPI(M), led by Pinarayi Vijayan), an advocate who won locally in the assembly elections of 2011 and 2016.

The Congress candidate is a veteran: K Muraleedharan, son of former Congress chief minister K Karunakaran, and the sitting MP for Vatakara (Vadakara) seat in Malabar.

His ticket was a last-minute decision, made after his sister, Padmaja Venugopal, switched from the Congress to the BJP in March 2024. This came as a rude shock to sitting Congress Member of Parliament T N Prathapan, who had already initiated his campaign in anticipation of a ticket. To his credit, though, Prathapan swallowed his disappointment and has remained a loyal party trooper.

For the past 40  years, this seat has swung between the Congress and the CPI. That fluctuation has much to do with demographics. At least a quarter of the population is Christian, concentrated in four inland assembly segments. Muslims, who form around a fifth, are more concentrated in two coastal segments.

A third of the population belongs to the Ezhava community (categorised as Other Backward Class, and traditional CPI supporters). One tenth are Dalits, for which, one segment is a reserved assembly seat.

They are more inclined towards the Congress. And finally, there is a large concentration of Nairs and Brahmins within the limits of Thrissur municipal corporation, who mainly vote for the BJP.

A table below gives the seat’s recent electoral history. Note how the Left’s vote share increased in the 2021 assembly elections, after the Kerala Congress of Jose K Mani, a party of the Catholics, switched from the Congress-led alliance to the Left in 2020.

So, what is the ground situation?

Thrissur is witnessing a tight triangular contest — tighter than the one in 2019. With two days of campaigning left, the BJP appears to have the lead.

Some believe that the Congress is close behind, with the CPI trailing third. This writer is of the opinion that while the BJP may indeed have a slight lead, it is the CPI which is presently second.

Banners and posters everywhere inform electors that a vote for Suresh Gopi is a vote for a cabinet minister; “This is Modi’s guarantee”.

The message resonates because even non-BJP supporters are largely resigned to the fact that it is going to be a third term for the Narendra Modi government.

If so, then it makes sense to have a Thrissur man at the centre of the power structure in Delhi, rather than someone from the CPI or the Congress, whose main role would only be to disrupt Parliament.

For this, Gopi has released a 13-point Thrissur-specific development manifesto which he promises to see through.

The list includes greater rail connectivity for commuters, solar alternatives to counter the deteriorating electricity situation in Kerala, emphasis on manufacturing, houses, water supply, and a comprehensive revamping of the main commercial market in the city.

There is no doubt that Suresh Gopi is immensely popular. This is his third election. In 2019, he polled 28 per cent and stood third.

It was even closer in the 2021 assembly elections: the CPI won with 34 per cent, Padmaja Venugopal, then with the Congress, polled 33 per cent, and Gopi got 31 per cent. The margin difference between the three candidates was less than 4,000 votes.

In this period, Gopi has nurtured this constituency assiduously irrespective of electoral outcomes, and many believe that this doggedness is going to pay off in 2024. At the moment, the BJP is believed to be leading in three segments, doing well in two, and still struggling to overcome challenges in two — Ollur and Guruvayur.

The last two segments are simply a matter of demographics. Since 1957, Ollur has only been won by either a Christian Congressman, or a secular Marxist.

Since 1977, the sitting MLA for Guruvayur has always been a Muslim. There are still no-go areas for the BJP in both segments. That is why Gopi has been campaigning intensively in Ollur this week, while other senior BJP leaders have been focussing on Guruvayur.

V Unnikrishnan Master, in charge of the BJP’s campaign in Thrissur, says they have been tasked with ensuring that the party’s message reaches every last home. Is that working? Unnikrishnan believes so for a number of reasons.

First, there is a qualitative improvement from 2019, in the response the BJP gets. Now, more people believe that Gopi can win. This inference, Unnikrishnan says, is gleaned from five grassroots house-to-house campaigns conducted over the past two months.

Second, is a twin Modi-Gopi effect. The Prime Minister’s repeated visits to Thrissur, and the visible bond he shares with Gopi, appeals to people, especially female voters.

As a result, Gopi’s vote share should rise across the constituency. He is also expected to poll very well within city limits (even as much as 50 per cent in Thrissur assembly segment, according to those working on the ground).

Third, a shift of votes from the CPI to the BJP is taking place in Thrissur (this is a very difficult thing for the BJP to achieve in Kerala). Many traditional CPI voters have been put off by the Left’s egregious anti-Hindu stance (one state minster called Ganapati a myth, and a local MLA wrote a Facebook post insulting Sita Mata).

Fourth, is the anger and affront, because Kerala Police disrupted the centuries-old grand, annual Thrissur Pooram festival on 19 April, when deities from 10 temples are brought to the city centre’s Vadakkumnathan temple grounds on elephants, a stellar pageant of changing colourful parasols and banners is conducted on elephant back to the sound of drums, and closed out by a grand finale of fireworks after midnight.

Unfortunately, this year, many participants and spectators were shockingly prevented from approaching the fireworks display area, and lathis were swung. One major temple cancelled its fireworks display in protest, and another was insultingly forced because of the delay, for the first time in history, to hold the fireworks display in daylight.

A part of the public believes that the police was instructed to behave the way they did because one of the banners displayed earlier that day carried an image of Ramlalla. Whatever the reason, this atrocious behaviour will have some impact on the elections.

Bijoy Thomas, a senior BJP member on election duty, says there are multiple reports of women in homes who traditionally vote for the CPI, closing their doors on the faces of CPI campaigners, and saying, “No votes for those who disrupted our Pooram”.

Fifth, is the Christian vote: there is a distinct reduction in animosity towards the BJP amongst the community now. Thomas says that in 2019 and 2021, many Christians actively sought to ensure that the BJP did not win, even by transferring their vote from the Congress to the Left, or vice versa. That is not the case today.

Perhaps, that is why the main Catholic church has been silent this election season, and not issued any directives asking its flock to vote for or against anyone.

At the same time, some small denominations have come out openly in favour of the BJP, and some are silently in search for political support from non-Left-non-Congress quarters. While it is difficult to quantify this shift, it is clear that the BJP’s Christian outreach programme seems to be working at some levels.

Allied with this is the Anil Anthony factor. An increasing number of Christians believe that he will be made a central minister irrespective of whether he wins Pathanamthitta Lok Sabha seat, or not.

They like how he is being groomed by the BJP. The old fears are starting to fade. Also, Anthony Jr’s ascendancy has envious aspirational value for ambitious Christian politicians who know, and accept, that they will remain cut out of the Delhi power structure as long as they keep their fortunes linked to the Congress or the Left.

Sixth is the T N Prathapan factor. It is believed that the humiliating manner in which his candidacy was abruptly snatched away and given to Muraleedharan at the very last moment, will force a shift of fisherman community votes from the Congress to the BJP.

And, finally, seventh, is the Muslim factor. Between disillusionment with the Congress, and their relentless wooing by the Left, there is every possibility that the Muslim vote may get split between.

If that happens, the advantage will shift decisively to the BJP. Interestingly, this writer learnt that around a thousand Muslim votes are going to the BJP from one pocket of one segment (location name withheld for fear of backlash).

That may not seem like much, but the point is that Thrissur is not Malappuram, the Moplah heartland. This may thus be taken as a welcome sign that a tiny fraction of this community is finally starting to soften its stance towards the BJP.

It may be inferred that in Thrissur, in 2024, the BJP is expected to hold on to what it got in 2019, and gain some material votes from the Congress and the Left.

What is unknown is the impact of the shift of Christian votes from the Congress to the Left, following the realignment of the Kerala Congress in 2020, and whether the Congress will be able to cut into the BJP’s Nair vote base (unlikely, but Muraleedharan managed to do precisely that in 2021, in Nemom assembly seat, to the BJP’s infinite chagrin).

Thus, with two days of campaigning left in Thrissur, the cultural capital of the state, it appears that Suresh Gopi and the BJP stand the best chance they have ever had, of winning a Lok Sabha seat in Kerala.

This report is part of Swarajya's 50 Ground Stories Project - an attempt to throw light on themes and topics that are often overlooked or looked down. You can support this initiative by sponsoring as little as ₹2999. Click here for more details.