Chinese Defence Minister Is Visiting India - What New Delhi Can Expect From A Post-Doklam Era

Strategic ties between India and China are set for a big boost over the next few months and breakthroughs on many major issues are likely. Apart from forging very close strategic and defence ties, the two countries are poised to achieve a breakthrough in border disputes that bedevil bilateral relations and achieve close cooperation in internal security issues that could see China using its influence on Islamabad to curb support to cross-border terror.

The need to forge close ties with each other was felt by both the countries after the 73-day standoff at Doklam last year. And since then, a series of very high-level interactions between leaders, diplomats, top armed forces officers and officials of the two countries have taken place.

All these meetings have led to a broad understanding on many issues, including border disputes, and the next few months are expected to see their fruition in the form of understandings, treaties, agreements and joint protocols.

According to top officials in India’s External Affairs Ministry, the fast-paced negotiations being held at various levels and in a spirit of understanding and positivity have been possible because they are being steered by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping. The two have already met thrice this year - the informal summit at Wuhan in late April, on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Summit in Qingdao in China in June and again on the sidelines of the 10th BRICS Summit at Johannesburg late last month.

They will meet again at the G20 Summit at Argentina later this year and President Jinping is likely to visit India early next year for a summit that is likely to see the unveiling of a new chapter in Sino-India ties.

“Both Modi and Jinping have been taking a very close personal interest in the talks on resolving border disputes, establishing close military-to-military ties, stepping up strategic relations, deepening people to people contacts, and on bilateral trade issues to reduce the huge trade deficit in China’s favour. We have also been talking about China’s stand on India’s entry into the Nuclear Suppliers’ Group (NSG) and the UN Security Council. A breakthrough on these is likely to be achieved by the time Jinping visits India next,” said a senior diplomat who is involved in the negotiations.

The optimism about a breakthrough in Sino-India ties stems from the personal interest that the leadership of the two countries have been taking in ironing out the differences and deepening ties. “Usually, when leaders meet for bilaterals on the sidelines of multilateral summits, they exchange pleasantries and speak on broad issues at best.

But at both Qingdao and Johannesburg, the two leaders held detailed discussions on all issues and reviewed the progress made in negotiations on every single issue. They directed their respective officials to step up the pace of negotiations and even set time-frames,” said the diplomat.

As part of this continuing engagement between India and China, Chinese Defence Minister Wei Fenghe will be in New Delhi on a four-day visit from Tuesday (August 21). Though it has been officially given out that the two sides “will discuss measures to deepen strategic communication between the militaries of the two countries”, they will actually go much beyond that.

The first agenda on the table will be to sort out the technicalities in establishing a hotline between top army officers of the two countries. While the Chinese side was keen on establishing the hotline between the commander of the PLA’s Western Theatre and his counterpart in India, the Indian Army has three regional commands with their respective commanders looking after the Sino-India frontier (read this). The two sides are veering around to the solution that the hotline be set up between the Directors-General of Military Operations (DGMO) of the two countries.

Fenghe’s visit is a sequel to the informal summit in Wuhan in late April between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Xi Jinping where the two leaders decided to strengthen strategic communication between the armed forces of the two countries to avoid a repeat of a Doklam-like standoff along the Sino-India border. The two leaders discussed this topic once again at the sidelines of the 10th BRICS Summit at Johannesburg late last month and it was decided that the Chinese Defence Minister would visit India first in August, followed by a series of high-level exchanges between the foreign and defence establishments of the two countries over the next few months.

Apart from the hotline, which is expected to go a long way to iron out misunderstandings over the frequent border incursions, the two sides will also strive to establish a permanent mechanism to prevent such incursions. A firm protocol to swiftly resolve issues arising out of possible incursions or misunderstandings arising out of activities like exercises and troop movements by the two armies on their respective territories close to the international border will also be discussed.

“The discussions will not be routine and perfunctory, as had happened many times in the past. There are highly positive developments that have been taking place in Sino-India relations recently.

One is the great progress in resolving disputes and conflicting claims on many segments of the border, especially in the eastern and central sectors. That has injected a huge dose of positivity in Sino-India ties, and enormous hope in strengthening ties between the two countries. Thus, the visit of the Chinese Defence Minister is expected to lead to concrete decisions to build strategic ties between our defence forces,” said a senior officer of the External Affairs Ministry who did not want to be named since he is not authorised to speak to the media.

The successful visit of a Chinese military delegation led by the Deputy Commander of PLA’s Western Theatre Command (WTC), Lt Gen Liu Xiaowu, to Delhi and eastern India early last month went a long way in injecting positivity in the nascent military ties between the two countries and in raising hopes of a significant outcome from the forthcoming visit of the Chinese Foreign Minister. Xiaowu, who was accompanied by the Commander of Xinjiang Military Region Maj Gen Liu Wanglong, Deputy Director WTC’s Political Department Maj Gen Huang Jixiang and Deputy Chief of Staff of WTC Air Force Maj Gen Wang Yanqi, also visited the India Army’s 33 Corps (Trishakti Corps) Headquarters at Sukhna in north Bengal. It was the Trishakti Corps which was involved in resisting the Chinese advance in Doklam. Very positive reports on the visit of this Chinese military delegation to India was carried in the Chinese media.

During the visit of Lt Gen Xiaowu, who also met army chief General Bipin Rawat and vice-chief Lt Gen Devraj Anbu in New Delhi, the two armies decided to strengthen border risk management and control. This, in layman’s terms, means that the protocol and mechanism that now exists for resolving minor disputes arising out of border incursions be strengthened and further formalised.

At present, such disputes are discussed and resolved at the level of brigade commanders, and both the armies have felt the need to establish firm lines of communication and hold regular interactions at the level of divisional commanders (Major Generals) as well.

An important decision on the table that could reduce the possibility of future incursions and misunderstandings is that of the armies of the two countries laying down border patrol routes in each sector and informing each other of the timings and durations of such border patrols.

Another important issue that was discussed during last month’s visit of the Chinese military delegation and is expected to be taken up and finalised during the visit of the Chinese Defence Minister is that of expanding and intensifying joint exercises between the defence forces of the two countries. The joint exercises were suspended after the standoff between the two armies at Doklam.

The in-principle decision to resume the joint exercises (codenamed ‘Hand In Hand’) was taken at a meeting between Defence Minister Nirmala Sitharaman and Fenghe at the sidelines of a meeting of defence ministers of SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organisation) countries in Beijing last month. Future versions of the joint exercises would be more intensive as well as extensive and is likely to involve the air forces and navies of the two countries also.

The forthcoming visit of the Chinese Defence Minister will pave the way for the 21st round of boundary talks between the special representatives of the two countries next month. National Security Advisor Ajit Doval, India’s special representative, will travel to China and a major announcement on the progress in resolving border disputes in some sectors is expected to be made. This, say foreign office sources, will be a major confidence-building measure between the two countries.

China’s Minister for Public Security, Zhao Kezhi, will visit India in late-October and this visit is being seen as a crucial one. “A host of internal security issues will be discussed and in our interactions with China’s internal security officials till date, we have been impressing upon them our internal security concerns.

China has huge influence on Pakistan and we would like China to push Islamabad into stopping support for Islamist terror outfits based on its soil and in Kashmir. China is also facing Islamist terror and thus has started appreciating our position. We expect some significant developments on this major issue during the visit of the Chinese public security minister,” said the MEA official.

November will see Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi visiting New Delhi to hold dialogues with External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj and set the ground for the Modi-Jinping summit early next year. “The meeting between the two foreign ministers will be crucial. It will be a stock-taking of sorts and will set the stage for the summit, where some major announcements are likely,” said the diplomat.

The establishment of close ties with China could, thus, become the lasting legacy of the present NDA government, especially of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who has invested a lot in forging a personal bond with Xi Jinping.