Manipur Muddle — Complexities Of A National Security Issue

At the cost of repetition, let me highlight that the Manipur riddle is an extraordinary complex crisis. Manipur, historically, can be classified as “powder-keg”.

The Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (I.N.D.I.A) delegation's two-day visit is over.

After submitting a memorandum to the Governor, the I.N.D.I.A. team returned to Delhi to wage the political battle in the Parliament.

As per media reports, their list of demands include: resignation of the Manipur Chief Minister, N Biren Singh, imposition of President's rule, etc. None of them have highlighted positive measures of how to restore peace in the state.

On 5 May 2023, the central government took over control of security in violence-hit Manipur by deploying 12 companies, each comprising around 1,000 personnel.

By 7 May 2023, in one of the biggest deployments of security forces in a single state (outside of Jammu and Kashmir), 120-125 columns (each 60-80 soldiers) of the Army and Assam Rifles were deployed in Manipur.

Currently, there are over 40,000 central force personnel in Manipur: the Indian Army, the Assam Rifles, the Border Security Force (BSF) and the Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF).

In addition, the strength of Manipur police force is 44,388 personnel.

Currently, the security forces and police forces are employed in various peacekeeping roles including, manning “Buffer Zones” between warring tribes, counter-insurgency operations and border security.

Understanding demographics critical

The Meitei people represent around 53 per cent of the population of Manipur state. There are 33 recognised tribes that either belong to the Nagas or the Kukis — two separate conglomerates of Manipur tribals.

Naga ethnic groups are at 24 per cent and various Kuki/Mizo tribes (also known as Chin-Kuki-Mizo people) are at 16 per cent.

Manipur's ethnic groups practice a variety of religions.

The Meiteis and Nagas are the only two indigenous communities known to have lived in Manipur since the beginning of time. Groups referred to as "new Kukis" by the British administrators migrated to the Manipur area during the first half of the 19th century.

W McCullough in his account published in 1859, as well as, R B Pemberton in his Report on Eastern Frontier published in 1835, also suggest large migration of Kukis in Manipur at the start of 19th century.

According to the National Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN), Kukis have just lately begun to settle in Manipur. Besides, Meiteis treat them as 'illegal migrants'.

The territory of “Kukiland” included the Sadar Hills (which surround the Imphal valley on three sides), the Kuki-dominated Churachandpur district, Chandel, which has a mix of Kuki and Naga populations, and even parts of Naga-dominated Tamenglong and Ukhrul.

Churachandpur is their main stronghold and they also have a sizeable population in Chandel, Kangpokpi, Tengnoupal, and Senapati districts of Manipur.

Today, there are over 14 Meitei insurgent groups. And, opposing them are over 17 Kuki underground groups, and groups like Zomi Revolutionary Volunteers, Zomi Revolutionary Army, Zomi Reunification Organisation, and Hmar People's Convention.

Add to them the NSCN (IM) and the NSCN (K). To compound the crisis, the People's United Liberation Front, a Muslim militant organisation, has emerged. All of them are pursuing their own agendas and loggerheads with each other.

After the outbreak of civil strife post 5 May 2023, almost every village has organised themselves as fortresses with people manning bunkers and patrolling their territories.

Identifying the key issues or threat concerns:

• Insurgency astride the border – NSCN-IM, NSCN (K) and over 34 Meitei-Naga-Kuki and other insurgent groups

Except for scoring brownie points, I.N.D.I.A delegation has not provided the road-map for restoration of peace.

Most important, former chief of Army Staff, General M M Naravane, who is privy to intelligence during the recent past, has highlighted: “The involvement of foreign agencies...not only do I say it cannot be ruled out but I will say it is definitely there, especially Chinese aid to the various insurgent groups."

The external agencies threat is not a new phenomenon, but an ongoing one to destabilise India.

Those suggesting “Border Fencing” of India-Myanmar international border — National Security Initiative — to seal its 1,623-km-long border to counter insurgency and to prevent cross-border crime are living in a “fools' paradise”.

Ipso facto, four Northeast Indian states share the border with Myanmar: Arunachal Pradesh (520 km), Nagaland (215 km), Manipur (398 km) and Mizoram (510 km).

Both national governments agreed to conduct a joint survey before erecting the fence. The Indian Home Ministry and its Myanmar counterpart completed the study within six months and, in March 2003 began erecting a fence along the border.

Out of 1,643 km, demarcation of 1,472 km has been completed.

There are two undemarcated portions along India-Myanmar border: The Lohit sub-sector of Arunachal Pradesh —136 km and the Kabaw valley in Manipur — 35 km.

In 2007 in the state of Manipur, a boundary dispute arose with ownership of nine border pillars being disputed.

This fence will divide many ethnic communities, including the Mizo, Nagas, Chins, and Kukis whose lands straddle the regions between the two countries.

In 2004, fencing work in the state of Manipur along the border was stalled due to protests raised by the local Kuki and Naga communities.

According to them, a huge stretch of land would become Myanmar's territory and foster unrest among people living on both sides of the border.

The protests from people living in the Moreh, Chorokhunou, and Molchan areas forced the Home Ministry to refer the matter to the Manipur government.

The construction of fencing for a border length of 10.023 km at Moreh, Manipur has been awarded to Border Roads Organisation. Work is in progress and scheduled to be completed soon. Thus, border fencing is a highly sensitive issue.

Next, the Golden Triangle, coined by the CIA, is Asia's principal area of illicit opium production — the area of approximately 950,000 square kilometre (367,000 sq mi) that overlaps the mountains of the four adjacent countries: borders of China, Thailand, Laos, and Myanmar.

Opium production in Myanmar is the world's second-largest source of opium after Afghanistan, producing some 25 per cent of the world's opium.

In today’s latest unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) technology developments, “border fencing” per se is not a fool-proof measure.

Illicit trafficking of arms and drugs is a common feature using UAVs. External enemies are employing air, land and sea for carrying out their nefarious activities with impunity.

Border fencing, particularly jungle covered mountains of Patkai Range, is, therefore, a wasteful initiative. Even the enemy intelligence agencies and drug lords today employ UAVs to deliver their illicit shipments to their agents/recipients in Manipur.

Add to it, the Free Movement Regime (FMR) that exists between India and Myanmar.

Due to historical legacies, tribal relationships and heritage is real.

Under the FMR, every member of the hill tribes, who is either a citizen of India or a citizen of Myanmar and who is resident of any area within 16 km on either side of Indo-Myanmar border (IMB) can cross the IMB on production of a border pass (one year validity) issued by the competent authority and can stay up to two weeks per visit.

Recently, Home Ministry has directed Manipur and Mizoram governments to record biometrics of 'illegal migrants' by 30 September.

The Indo-Myanmar Border Force's proposed force of 29 battalions — 25 battalions from Assam Rifles and four battalions from Indo-Tibetan Border Police — to guard the 1,643-km-long (1,021 miles) Indo-Myanmar border, is yet to be organised.

Amongst such real world problems, high-decibel diatribe among political parties and their spokespersons is on grand display. And, the “political blame games” will continue as hithertofore.