Decoding China: What Beijing’s Moves Mean For India’s Future

Decoding China: Hard Perspectives from India. Ashoka Kantha (Volume Editor). Bloomsbury India. Pages: 416. Price: Rs 584.

In today’s fraught geopolitical environment marked by great-power rivalries, border tensions, and shifting economic currents, India is walking on a tightrope. Increasing United States pressure through tariffs on Indian goods citing oil trade with Moscow, and the talk of a possible thaw with China following Prime Minister Modi’s visit to China, only serve to further complicate the already complex scenario.

Against this backdrop, India’s need to understand Chinese intentions and strategies, as well as the ripple effects of India’s own choices on the region, has never been more pressing. Decoding China: Hard Perspectives from India, edited by veteran diplomat and former Indian Ambassador to Beijing, Ashok K. Kantha, arrives precisely at this juncture.

The volume gathers contributions from seasoned scholars, practitioners and strategists to offer a grounded Indian perspective on China’s trajectory. Structured into four sections, The Big Picture, Strategic Ambitions, Domestic Preoccupations, and Military Universe, the book serves as a combination of both breadth and depth.

Balancing the panoramic with the granular, it transitions from a holistic analysis to issue-specific case studies that bear directly on India’s strategic environment.

The Big Picture

The book opens with Kantha’s own essay, the longest in the collection, which maps the contours of contemporary Sino-Indian relations. He touches upon multiple aspects ranging from the current status of relations to the Modi years, to the Chinese psyche and the structural flaws in the relationship that hinder progress in certain areas.

This section also includes a chapter on “Emerging Trends in China”, which turns the spotlight on Xi Jinping, tracing how Xi has personalised power, reshaped institutions, and imposed his vision of the “Chinese Dream” on both domestic and foreign policy.

The conclusion of this chapter is particularly compelling, drawing attention to both the flaws in the Chinese system and possible predictions for the future based on trends.

Together, these chapters set the stage by equipping the reader with an overall insight into China’s worldview and what that means for India.

Decoding China’s Strategic Ambitions

The second part of the book dives into the specifics of China’s external engagements and geopolitical calculus such as Russia–China relations in the post-Cold War era, the evolution of Beijing’s foreign policy under Xi, and its growing assertiveness in regions like West Asia, South Asia and South East Asia that impact Indian interests.

The discussion on Russia–China relations is particularly insightful, showcasing how Western analyses often cast Russia as the primary threat to United States security while giving China a free pass on certain issues due to both economic interdependence and the differing geostrategic weight of the South China Sea compared with Europe’s Black Sea theatre.

The increasing closeness between Russia and China in light of the Ukraine War and the imposition of Western sanctions is also highlighted, providing a background for the Indian security conundrum of balancing great-power rivalries. For India, security interests demand vigilance against a potential Russia–China axis while maintaining bilateral ties with Russia and navigating United States pressures.

The analysis next traces the evolution of China’s foreign policy under Xi Jinping and its expanding imprint on South Asia, a region central to Indian interests where China is increasingly positioning itself as a counterweight to India.

Its footprint is evident in Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) projects, defence partnerships with Pakistan and Bangladesh, and infrastructure ventures including those in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir that directly challenge Indian sovereignty.

Concerns have been raised that smaller neighbours from Nepal to Sri Lanka face debt distress from costly Chinese projects, the efficacy of many of which has been questioned, resulting in their stalling or cancellation. Additionally, there exists a stark trade deficit with China running a 143 billion dollar trade surplus with SAARC nations in 2023. Despite these concerns, China continues to wield significant systemic influence with enduring implications for India.

Beijing’s calibrated entry into the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) at the expense of the United States, anchored in the need to secure energy and connectivity, is also scrutinised. China seeks to achieve this through the clever avoidance of prescriptive political positions combined with a reliance on bilateral partnerships, economic engagement, and the desire of West Asian nations to diversify relationships.

Together, these chapters underscore the layered, region-specific strategies pursued by China for long-term structural leverage.

Domestic Preoccupations

Part Three shifts the lens inward, dissecting the domestic imperatives that shape China’s policymaking.

The chapter “China’s Economic Trajectory: Politics in Command” analyses the economic turbulence in the aftermath of the Zero-Covid policy. Lockdown-induced disruptions caused GDP to expand by a modest 3 per cent in 2022, far below the 5.5 per cent target.

The chapter focuses on China’s Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) and the measures proposed by the leadership such as fiscal discipline, urging party and government bodies to “get used to working within a limited budget”, while simultaneously seeking to balance monetary flexibility with targeted support for innovation, green transformation, and micro-enterprises.

The careful emphasis on “establishing the new before abolishing the old” reveals a system wary of destabilising critical sectors while still pursuing modernisation.

The chapter on “Science and Technology Innovation in China” examines the country’s goals alongside the efforts and initiatives made by the state to promote science and technology and become a global technological leader. It maps the interplay of military–civil fusion, academia–industry collaboration, and the role of both state-owned and private enterprises in China’s innovation ecosystem.

Particularly noteworthy is the nuanced discussion of progress in niche technologies, coupled with recognition of the structural challenges faced by China as well as its strengths.

The section also ventures into the sensitive political terrain of Xinjiang and Tibet. The account of Xinjiang analyses the history and dynamics of the conflict while highlighting the intensification of repressive measures under Chen Quanguo and situates these policies alongside the intrusive controls witnessed during the pandemic.

It also calls for a more pragmatic approach to the issue by India in light of China’s stance on Kashmir. Tibet, in turn, is examined mainly through the prism of Beijing’s attempt to ‘sinicise’ Buddhism and curb Tibetan nationalism, including efforts to limit transnational activism in Nepal and beyond.

The Military Universe

Given the history of direct conflict with China and the escalation of tensions after the Galwan clash, the final section, Military Universe, is a vital read. It traces the PLA’s modernisation drive, advances in space capabilities, and the push for military–civil fusion.

The section offers an in-depth examination of the contested border, a persistent flashpoint in Sino-Indian relations. It unpacks the sweeping restructuring of the PLA and its efforts at modernisation across all arms, while providing a valuable window into the Chinese strategic mindset.

In conclusion, Decoding China: Hard Perspectives from India is essential reading for policymakers, students, and informed citizens alike. Accessible even to general readers, its clear structure and narrative flow provide a holistic grasp of India’s concerns.

At the same time, it is packed with empirical rigour through its rich data on trade deficits, arms transfers, and debt exposure, making it equally valuable for specialists.

Departing from the usual Eurocentric lens, the book offers a distinctly Indian perspective on China’s rise, delivering a balanced, multidimensional analysis of Beijing’s ambitions and anxieties, and their implications for India.

For any reader invested in India’s future within a rapidly evolving global order, the volume is simply indispensable.