Beijing Delays Q3 GDP Numbers As Jinping’s Coronation Begins

China has delayed the release of its Q3 GDP figures. The numbers were scheduled for release in the middle of the 20th National Congress where President Xi Jinping will secure a third term. However, no explanation was given for the delay in the release, and the National Bureau of Statistics did not issue any statement or comment. 

Globally, economists and other observers have revised the GDP outlook for 2022 to 3.2 per cent against Beijing’s official target of 5.5 per cent. Attributing the downgrade to President Xi Jinping’s Covid-zero lockdowns, the economists made the calculations in a survey conducted by Nikkei last month. 

The forecast is for the GDP growth to be anywhere between 2.2 per cent and 4.1 per cent, depending on the numbers of the final two quarters. The same survey put China’s GDP forecasts for 2022 at 5 per cent in March 2022 and 4.1 per cent in the June survey. 

Compared to the second quarter when the economy grew at 0.4 per cent, the observers are more optimistic about Q3, citing less number of lockdowns, investment in manufacturing and production, and even automobile sales.

Covid-zero lockdowns have sent China’s economy for a toss in 2022. At the Shanghai Port, the number of containers processed in April 2022 was the third-lowest since January 2019, at around 3.1 million. This has prompted many western firms to look outward. 

Apple has already announced that it is diversifying its production of AirPods and Beats products, moving them out of China. 

A survey released in May 2022 by the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China highlighted the concerns. Of more than 350 companies surveyed, nearly 60 per cent are looking at decreased revenue projections for 2022. 

There are also several economists predicting that the forecast could be below 3 per cent for 2022. For Jinping, who shall begin his third term later this month, these are ominous signs, for the economic crisis in China is yet to peak.