NDA Seat Sharing In Bihar Caught In Crossfire Of Uncle-Nephew Feud

As soon as it ended the stalemate on seat sharing in Maharashtra, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has one more trouble to shoot.

In Bihar, where the party has just welcomed back Nitish Kumar into the NDA fold, the party has to sort out the differences between Chirag Paswan and his uncle Pashupati Kumar Paras, the son and brother of late Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) leader Ram Vilas Paswan.

But instead of making progress on the question of seats between the two factions of the LJP, trouble keeps mounting for the BJP with every round of deliberation.

What Is At Stake

Chirag Paswan-led faction of the party, Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) (Ram Vilas), and Pashupati Kumar Paras-led Rashtriya Lok Janshakti Party (RLJP), are both part of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). LJP (Ram Vilas) wants to contest from six Lok Sabha seats, while RLJP wants to field its candidates from five seats, taking the total tally to 11. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the unified LJP had gotten only six seats.

The question of seat sharing is complicated by the personal uncle-nephew feud.

Both Paras and Paswan reportedly want to contest from Hajipur seat, currently held by Paras. Chirag on the other hand is a MP from Jamui constituency.

According to RLJP, Ram Vilas Paswan wanted Paras to contest from Hajipur.

For BJP, the headache is amplified by constant rumours of Chirag Paswan’s possibility of drifting towards INDI Alliance. The Alliance has reportedly offered eight seats to Chirag, including six on which the undivided LJP had contested from in 2019. Two more seats from neighbouring Uttar Pradesh are also said to be on table.

Why Is Chirag Adamant? 

Chirag has his reasons to be adamant.

Hajipur seat was the stronghold of his father Ram Vilas Paswan. He had won this seat eight times. Though Chirag himself contested from Jamui in 2014 and 2019, presumably with his father’s acceptance, the situation is different in 2024.

Moreover, Chirag has few considerable accolades under his belt as well. In large part, the LJP success on six seats in 2019 is attributed to him. In 2020 assembly elections, he emerged as the catalyst in sinking the ship of Janata Dal United (JDU).

Thanks to Chirag, who at that point claimed to be Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Hanuman, acting as vote-katwa (vote-divider) for NDA, JDU’s seat came down from 71 in 2015 to 43 in 2019.

Clearly, one may doubt the impact of the presence of LJP (Ram Vilas), but there is no doubt over the consequences of Chirag’s absence from the NDA fold.

Problem For BJP

BJP, the biggest constituent of NDA is suffering from perils of abundance — it has many allies. There are 40 seats in Bihar, out of which BJP is expected to field its candidates on 17, same as 2019. For the remaining 23 seats, it has to accommodate five alliance members. JDU, second biggest alliance partner, is also expected to contest from 17 seats. 

If BJP decides to offer seats to newly formed Upendra Kushwaha's Rashtriya Lok Manch and Jeetan Ram Manjhi’s Hindustani Awam Morcha, then JDU will watch its share go down. Even then, it will be left with solving the duel between LJP (Ram Vilas) and RLJP. The maths is easy, the practical equation is not.

BJP’s Solution 

In his meeting with Vinod Tawdle, BJP’s national secretary-general and Bihar’s state in charge, Paras refuted any chance of not contesting from Hajipur. Tawde on the other hand advised Paras to be accommodative and join hands with Chirag. He asked Paras to initiate the talks of re-unifying both factions of the former LJP.

For BJP, it tackles the problem from two ends. Firstly with a unified LJP, the demand for seats will likely be less than the current tally of 11. Secondly, it will give more certainty about seats on which alliance candidates will fight.

For Chirag, a suggestion has emerged from an unexpected corner. Prashant Kishore, who is heading Jan Suraaj said that people do not vote for NDA, instead votes are cast in the name of BJP. Kishore advised Chirag Paswan to not tinker with the flow and follow what BJP says. He had similar suggestions to other members of NDA as well.

While Bihar’s BJP chief Samrat Chaudhary says that all is well, the problem looks more complex. Nothing explains Nitish Kumar’s quick return from vacation in England.