The Rise and Fall of India’s So-Called Fastest Growing Political Startup: Aam Aadmi Party

In April 2023, after the AAP was recognized as a national party by the Election Commission of India, its MP Raghav Chaddha, in an interview, referred to the Aam Aadmi Party as the "fastest growing political startup."

This was attributed to its victories in the Delhi and Punjab state elections, as well as surpassing a certain vote share threshold in Gujarat and Goa. The AAP was seen as a new, pan-national alternative to the Congress and was expected to make significant inroads into various Hindi heartland states, where the political landscape had been dominated by a bipolar contest between the BJP and INC.

Every startup needs an initial investor who believes in its ideas and is willing to bet on its ambitions. In the case of AAP, the voters of the national capital provided the initial "capital." Just like investors look for a unique differentiator before putting their money into a startup, the AAP was perceived as a new political entity that stood apart from other parties on the following points:

—It was led by a group of professionals who had successful careers in their respective fields but chose to enter politics with the goal of introducing professionalism and eliminating unethical practices.

—The party sought to embody the aspirations of the lower middle and middle classes, focusing on better governance, improving civic infrastructure, and eradicating corruption.

—It sought to change the style of politics by abolishing the VIP culture, challenging the entrenched political elite, and bringing outsiders into the system to overhaul it from within.

After its initial investors, the voters of Delhi, decided to withdraw their support from AAP, political commentators have begun writing the party's obituary.

In its early years, AAP benefited from the goodwill generated by the India Against Corruption movement, which was largely supported by the masses frustrated with the corrupt and inefficient Congress-led government. The movement was seen as a revolution against a corrupt system composed of politicians, bureaucrats, and businessmen. Figures involved in the movement, such as Anna Hazare, Baba Ramdev, Kiran Bedi, and Arvind Kejriwal, were regarded as principled individuals with no personal agendas.

After the India Against Corruption movement, Arvind Kejriwal positioned himself as a staunch corruption crusader, frequently holding press conferences where he would level corruption allegations against various political leaders and businessmen.

The core agenda of these press conferences was to label every political establishment as corrupt and interconnected, with his signature phrase often being, "Sab mile hue hain ji, aur sab ke sab chor hain ji" (They are all in cahoots, and they are all thieves).

It was against this backdrop that the Aam Aadmi Party was launched. However, the party did not retain all the key stakeholders from the India Against Corruption movement, with Anna Hazare, the movement's leader, not supporting the formation of a political party. AAP made Delhi its first battleground, where the movement had originated. The party gained significant support due to the lingering anti-incumbency sentiment against the state government and the general leadership void in the city.

This was also a time when people believed that professionals—outsiders to the political system—entering politics to change its course was a positive development. A party like AAP capitalized on this sentiment, selling a dystopian dream to the middle class and those voters seeking a break from the traditional style of politics.

In the city-state of Delhi, AAP always knew they could secure the traditional anti-BJP base of SCs and Muslims, who together make up more than 30% of the electorate. Additionally, they built a strong "freebie vote bank" by offering free water, free electricity, and free bus rides, which helped them win successive elections.

In its early years, AAP operated under a collective leadership model, with figures like Kejriwal, Kumar Vishwas, Yogendra Yadav, and Prashant Bhushan driving the party’s agenda and shaping narratives around various issues. Amidst these idealistic political commentators and activists, Arvind Kejriwal emerged as the pragmatic politician who had truly transitioned from his activist role. He skillfully sidelined the aforementioned leaders, pushing them out of the organization once he believed they had served their purpose. In startup parlance, it was as if all the revolutionary co-founders had to step aside, as their stakes in the organization were diminishing.

The party was then built around the persona of Arvind Kejriwal. The trust in Kejriwal's image and persona among the middle and lower middle class became a major driver for the party's incremental votes. These were the same voters who supported PM Narendra Modi in the Lok Sabha elections but chose Arvind Kejriwal in Delhi, reflecting their belief in his leadership for the local governance of the city.

In the last two elections, especially in 2015, voters were less concerned about local candidates and chose AAP primarily because of the hope they saw in Arvind Kejriwal. Contrary to popular perception, it wasn’t just a vote against the BJP, but rather a pro-Kejriwal vote, driven by the belief in his leadership and vision for Delhi.

In 2020, AAP did just enough over the previous five years, leveraging its popular welfare schemes to keep the middle class engaged. Additionally, the opposition parties like the BJP and INC failed to present any strong alternative models to draw voters away from AAP.

Over the past five years, the AAP faced several challenges, particularly as it struggled to maintain its appeal and deliver on new promises. Initially, the party built its popularity on offering freebies, especially in the areas of electricity, water, education, and healthcare—issues that resonated strongly with the middle class in Delhi. However, by this term, these initiatives had been largely implemented, leaving the party with little fresh policy to offer.

The Covid-19 pandemic further compounded AAP's challenges, while corruption allegations against key party members such as Satyendra Jain, Sanjay Singh, Manish Sisodia, and even Arvind Kejriwal—particularly related to the liquor policy—brought significant negative publicity. These allegations, and the elements of truth within them, transformed Kejriwal into a “usual politician.” In my conversations with voters in Delhi, especially those who had voted for AAP in previous elections, when I asked about their opinion on the corruption allegations against Kejriwal, the common response was, "All politicians are the same; it's not surprising if a politician is corrupt."

The Kejriwal who had differentiated himself from other politicians by presenting himself as not a "politician" but a "kattar imandaar" (staunchly honest) person, had lost that key distinction over the last five years. The Sheeshmahal scandal only added to his troubles. In AAP’s early years, Kejriwal had publicly announced that he would refuse to accept a government bungalow or vehicle and would continue to function like an "aam aadmi" (common man) without any red tape. The extravagant CM residence, now famously known as the “Sheesh Mahal,” was in stark contrast to his original stance. The attack on Sheeshmahal was a main campaign plank of the party to portray Kejriwal as an unscrupulous and corrupt leader. The Swati Maliwal controversy, involving alleged misuse of power and resources, further eroded the party's credibility and public trust.

Additionally, AAP’s efforts to expand its territorial reach into states like Gujarat, Punjab and Goa risked diluting its focus on its original base in Delhi. This geographical expansion could have impacted its ability to effectively manage its core supporters, particularly amongst the floating middle class voters.

All the factors mentioned above may not have directly compelled voters to turn against the Aam Aadmi Party, but they certainly accelerated AAP's transformation into yet another entrenched political system. This shift made it easier for the party’s initial investors—the voters of Delhi—to reconsider their support, prompting them to think about diversifying their political "portfolio" and seek better opportunities elsewhere.

Another overarching on-ground narrative was that "Sarkar to AAP banayegi, lekin is seat mein kaate ki takkar hai." This narrative implied that voters had developed a sense of complacency with the Kejriwal brand, as it had failed to offer anything new to center the campaign around him. This further led to the localization of the election in which the local candidates became a key voting driver.

A similar phenomenon was observed during the Lok Sabha elections in Maharashtra, where voters were so sure of PM Narendra Modi returning to power that they were willing to vote out a local BJP/NDA candidate due to localized anger, thinking that the result would not affect the overall nationwide scenario.

Due to this narrative, Arvind Kejariwal was not able to pull his weaker candidates something he had achieved in 2015 and 2020 when the candidates did not matter much.

The BJP did an excellent job of identifying strong local candidates and effectively localizing the elections. The absence of a centralized narrative often benefits the opposition, as it allows them to create multiple localized narratives and encourage voters to focus on real governance issues.

However, because the assembly constituencies in Delhi often vote as smaller clusters—due to similarities in demographics and class across neighboring Vidhan Sabhas—even the localization of the election created a sort of wave in traditional BJP strongholds. For e.g Western and North Western constituencies bordering Haryana have a similar demographic and class structure.

Also, as a regional party in Delhi, AAP lacks any linguistic or identity-based connotations, nor does it have a specific issue to emotionally engage voters. While elections are often fought on pragmatic issues to some extent, in the end, a campaign needs an emotional connection, which was missing in this case.

Till now AAP has thrived on the anti-incumbency sentiments created by incumbents in Punjab and Delhi. It was able to convince the voters of Delhi due to its link to the India Against Corruption movement and general sense of disenchantment with the traditional political leaders in Delhi.

To the voters of Punjab, who were again grappled with successive misrules, they sold the so called reforms in education and health sector terming it as the “AAP’s model of governance” in Delhi. It’s main campaign plank in Gujarat and Goa was also around this governance model in Delhi. With the voters in Delhi having rejected AAP’s model, the party’s main selling point has been severely dented.

The AAP also gained support from a number of activists who played a key role in its expansion into states like Punjab, Gujarat, and Goa. However, with the Congress emerging as the dominant opposition to the BJP—especially after securing 99 seats in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections—the AAP will likely find it more challenging to garner support from vocal activist groups and NGOs. The Congress has become a safe haven for many of these anti-BJP activists and organizations. Additionally, with a more assertive Congress now on the scene, AAP’s efforts to expand its influence in BJP-ruled states will face significant obstacles.

However, it would be absurd to assume that AAP would become irrelevant in the country’s political landscape, primarily due to Arvind Kejriwal’s sharp political acumen and his ability to adapt to changing circumstances. Even in his speech conceding defeat, he refrained from questioning the EVM or the electoral process. He displayed significant political maturity, accepting his loss with grace.

The so-called political startup has encountered difficulties, as its initial investor has decided to withdraw from its capital. It will be interesting to see how the "startup" reinvents itself and how it crafts a compelling pitch to Indian voters in order to secure the next round of investment.