Commentary
Delhi Assembly Elections 2013 - A Opinion Poll
Delhi opinion poll-2013
Are you satisfied with the performance of the Congress government in the state?
Yes |
31%
No
48%
Do you think Sheila Dixit Government deserves another chance?
Yes |
34%
No
43%
How do you rate the performance of the state government?
Excellent |
7%
Good
16%
Average
33%
Poor
19%
What are the issues which affect you the most as a voter?
Price Rise/Inflation |
31%
Crime
25%
Corruption
23%
Unemployment
8%
Are you satisfied with the performance of UPA Government at Center?
No |
62%
Yes
21%
Report card of the State Government
| Issue | Improved |
Decreased/
Deteriorated
Remain the same
38%
29%
15%
27%
41%
18%
47%
19%
24%
27%
25%
28%
31%
37%
20%
20%
44%
27%
32%
30%
30%
29%
23%
32%
What are the factors /issues which could influence your voting preference?
| Performance of State Government | 31% |
19%
11%
17%
12%
Do you think Manmohan Singh needs to be re-elected?
No |
67%
Yes
19%
Do you give weight age to party or leader while voting in election?
Leader |
29%
Party
25%
Both
36%
Electoral preferences of various social/demographic groups
| Category | BJP |
Congress
AAP
BSP
35%
23%
22%
11%
36%
25%
23%
7%
26%
35%
12%
14%
32%
25%
15%
12%
29%
27%
17%
13%
23%
37%
9%
16%
26%
33%
13%
15%
*Congress has edge among uneducated, slum dwellers and migrant voters while BJP more popular among young voters, college goers, trading community and women voters
*Aam Admi Party is preferred by significant chunk of educated youth and middle aged men and a section of slum dwellers.
*Urban and working women preferring BJP compared to Congress
Who do you prefer as the next Prime Minister of India?
| Narendra Modi | 39% |
16%
13%
8%
4%
4%
3%
2%
2%
*Modi is the most preferred choice for PM post at 39% followed at distant second by Rahul Gandhi.Modi more popular among first time voters, young college goers, women and middle class
| Party | Vote share (2008) |
(2008)
(2013)
(2013)
35%(-1.34)
34%(-6.31)
13%(-1.05)
10%(+9)
8%(-1.3)
Vote Share projection for 2013 Assembly election
Seat projection for 2013 Assembly elections
*Swing of 6.31% of vote away from Congress compared to 2008 Assembly election.The party is likely to lose 13 seats from 2008 elections. Nearly a third of sitting Congress MLA’s facing anti incumbency.
*BJP largely retaining its core vote but the party vote share is likely to decline to 34% from 35.14%.The party is gaining 10 seats compared to 2008.
*AAP is likely to poll close to 10% vote but could end up behind BSP which is holding onto its traditional vote.
*Sheila Dikshit remains most popular choice for CM post.
*BJP’s inability to project a strong CM face is unlikely to significantly impact its poll prospects as the party is beneficiary of the anti incumbency sentiment.
*Performance of state government relatively positive when compared with that of the Union Government
*Poor ratings of the Union Government likely to impact Congress performance in the upcoming election.
*BJP vote share could go up by 6% in Lok Sabha election compared to the Assembly elections
*Close race between BJP and Congress but slight edge for BJP.
Are you satisfied with the performance of your sitting MLA?
Yes |
42%
No
47%
Satisfaction index of sitting MLA’s of major parties
BJP |
0.7
Congress
0.5
BSP
0.8
Seat and Vote share for Lok Sabha Election
Party |
Vote share
(2013)
Seat Share
(2013)
BJP
41%
5
Congress
33%
2
BSP
9%
–
AAP
5%
–
Do you agree that the hike in electricity tariff is justified?
No |
61%
Yes
22%
Vote Share Projection for Lok Sabha election
Which party do you think can provide better governance?
BJP |
32%
Congress
29%
Aam Admi Party
18%
BSP
10%
Seat share projections for Lok Sabha election
Which party do you think can bring down price rise and food inflation?
BJP |
34%
Congress
25%
AAP
19%
Whom do you prefer as the Chief Minister of Delhi?
Sheila Dikshit |
22%
Arvind Kejriwal
16%
Vijay Goel
14%
Dr.Harshvardhan
9%
Ajay Maken
5%
Smriti Irani
3%
*Shiela Dikshit remains the popular choice for Chief Ministerial seat at 22% followed by Arvind Kejriwal at 16%.Vijay Goel is the preferred choice from BJP for CM post.36% of BJP voters want Vijay Goel as next CM of Delhi
*The field work for the survey was carried from September 2nd to 7th
*A total of 823 respondents from 21 Assembly constituencies spread over 73 polling booths were interviewed during the field work.
*The respondents were provided with questionnaire in both English and Hindi depending upon the ease of convenience of understanding.
*The survey sample has cross sectional representation of the major caste and social groups proportional to the 2001 census figures.
*If the fugues don’t add upto 100% its due to the respondents either favoring options not given in the questionnaire and some having no opinion on the question posed.
*The margin of the error is +/- 3%
(Image Courtesy- India Today)
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