How China's New Triad Threatens A Silent Strangulation Of The Chicken's Neck

A new, three-pronged Chinese threat emanating from eastern Nepal, southern Bhutan and northwestern Bangladesh is looming large over the narrow Siliguri corridor which links Northeast India with the rest of the country.

Chinese involvement in three mega projects in those areas of the neighbouring countries will present a new threat to the vulnerable corridor that has immense strategic importance for India.

These new threats are in addition to the existing one from Doklam at the tri-junction of India, Bhutan, and Tibet where a 73-day standoff between Indian and Chinese troops in 2017 resulted in the Chinese withdrawing from the Bhutanese territory that Beijing had surreptitiously laid claim to.

Though the Chinese have withdrawn from the Doklam plateau, they have not relinquished their claims over the 269 square kilometre area and have continued their military build-up on their side adjoining the plateau.

The Doklam plateau is just about 50 kilometres north of the Siliguri corridor and adverse possession of the plateau can severely compromise the security of the Siliguri corridor which is not only a vital transit route to the Northeast, but also houses many key defence installations, including IAF bases.

China’s malevolent intention of establishing a strong presence near the Siliguri corridor in order to present a threat to it and take adversarial action in case of outbreak of hostilities with India has been known for some time.

“Once India strongly resisted the Chinese advance into the Doklam plateau and forced them to retreat, China has been looking for other ways to establish a strong presence near the Siliguri corridor. Bangladesh and Nepal have now presented such opportunities to China. And China plans to leverage Bhutan’s invitation for Chinese investments in a dream project – the Gelephu Mindfulness City – right next to the Indo-Bhutan border to establish a strong strategic presence overlooking the Siliguri corridor,” said defence and strategic affairs expert Major General (retired) Avinash Prakash.

Chinese presence in eastern Nepal

China is planning to build a US$ one million ‘China-Nepal Friendship Industrial Park’ at Damak in Nepal’s easternmost Jhapa district. Damak is less than 55 kilometres from the Indo-Nepal border that forms the western alignment of the Siliguri corridor.

The park is the pet project of Nepal’s Prime Minister Khadga Prasad Sharma Oli who is perceived to be China’s proxy. Jhapa is Oli’s home district and he got the industrial park project included in the list of BRI (Belt & Road Initiative) projects in Nepal.

The MoU for constructing this industrial park spread over 1,422 hectares was signed in 2019 and China’s Lhasa Economic and Technology Development Zone Jingping Joint Construction Company will construct and operate the industrial park.

Though the construction of the park is yet to start, latest reports suggest that China has renewed its interest in the park. Nepal is expediting the process of resolving land acquisition, compensation and resettlement issues that have stood as impediments in developing the project.

The industrial park, once complete, will be able to accommodate 491 industrial units manufacturing white goods, transportation equipment, textile and garments, food processing units and electronics goods as well as logistics and training services.

“There is no doubt that most of the investors will be Chinese. That means the Chinese will establish a huge presence very close to the Siliguri corridor. They will not only be able to mount close surveillance on the corridor, the industrial park can also be a logistics base and launchpad for covert anti-India activities,” said Maj Gen Prakash.

A senior Intelligence Bureau (IB) officer told Swarajya that given China’s close proximity to its client state, Pakistan, it will not be surprising if the Chinese-operated park turns into a safe haven for anti-India Islamist elements pushed into Nepal by Pakistan.

“Nepal has been a favoured route for entry of Pakistani terrorists and Islamists into India due to the porosity of the Indo-Nepal border. A strong Chinese presence close to this border poses a grave threat to India. The industrial park can serve as a new launchpad for Pakistani terrorists into the Siliguri corridor to carry out subversive activities,” the IB officer said.

India apprehends that the Chinese-owned and operated units manufacturing electronics and other goods will be a good cover for mounting surveillance on the Siliguri corridor.

India has already raised concerns over Chinese involvement in a mega project so close to the Indo-Nepal border. A senior officer in India’s Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) told Swarajya that India’s concerns have been conveyed to Kathmandu.

“Nepal has assured us that our (India’s) interests will be kept in mind and safeguarded and Nepal will not allow any sort of anti-India activities from its land. Nepal has also invited India to be part of the project. Nepal has said it would welcome Indian investments in the industrial park,” the MEA officer said.

Nepal’s assurances are, though well-meaning, quite meaningless because once the industrial park at Damak becomes operational, it will be the Chinese who will control and operate the park.

“We have seen how Chinese projects across the world are tightly controlled by Chinese operatives and how even the host country has zero control over such projects,” said the IB officer.

An officer of the MEA’s northern division that deals with Nepal and Bhutan told Swarajya that India plans to request Nepal to revise the MoU with the Chinese firm that will be awarded control of the industrial park’s operations once it is completed.

“Ideally, we would like a Nepalese entity to operate the park but if that’s not possible, India should be given a stake in the operations so that we can keep a watch on the goings-on there. Nepal will also be told that Indian entities would like to take hold of some of the plots in the park to set up manufacturing units. We would like to be a part of the project in order to keep watch on what happens there,” said the MEA’s northern division officer.

That, however, may not be easy and China will resist any attempts to prise control of the park from its vice-like grip.

“We will cross that bridge when we come to it. Let the park be set up first,” said the senior MEA officer.

Bhutan’s Gelephu Mindfulness City

The Gelephu Mindfulness City (GMC) is a futuristic and ambitious project that is the brainchild of its present King Jigma Khesar Namgyel Wangchuk (read more about the mega project here).

“Bhutan is a very close friend and we are partnering in the project. But we will have to keep a close watch on what China does at the GMC. The Chinese are planning big investments, and as with all Chinese projects, we suspect the ones at the GMC will also be opaque. So we will have to be on constant vigil,” the senior IB officer said.

China, he added, will not be able to overcome the temptation of surreptitiously engaging in some ‘unfriendly acts’ against India through its proposed engagements in GMC.

“That is the nature of the Chinese Communist Party. There is always a diabolic intent behind what they do. So we have to be careful,” he added.

India is collaborating very closely with Bhutan in developing the GMC.

“That places us in a vantage position to keep track of Chinese investments in the project. China, however, will not be happy with that and will lean heavily on Bhutan to allow it a free rein. Bhutan will have to play the balancing act, and it is up to us to ensure that Bhutan does not succumb to Chinese pressure to allow unsupervised Chinese involvement without any oversight at the GMC,” said Varun Mistri, a strategic affairs consultant who is involved in the GMC.

India is planning to strengthen security and step up vigil along the Indo-Bhutan border in order to frustrate any attempt by the Chinese in future to use its presence at the GMC to indulge in anti-India acts.

“But no matter how tight the vigil, the risk of the crafty Chinese finding blind spots to work their way around such a vigil cannot be discounted. So we have to be very careful. We have conveyed our concerns to Bhutan and, together, we hope to work out a mechanism to protect our strategic and security interests and neutralise any Chinese threat that can emanate from GMC in future,” a senior officer of the Border Management (BM)-V Section of the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) that deals with Indo-Bhutan border management told Swarajya.

A senior officer of the MHA’s Internal Security (IS) Division said that a number of strategic measures are being put in place to counter any Chinese threat emanating from the GMC.

But the threat from China is real and constant, and that is what has India worried.

Bangladesh’s Lalmonirhat air base

Bangladesh’s interim government headed by Mohammad Yunus had initiated discussions with China earlier this year for help to revive the World War II airbase at Lalmonirhat in the country’s northern Rangpur division.

The airbase, which lies just 20 kilometres south of the Indo-Bangladesh border that forms the southern alignment of the Siliguri corridor, had not been used for many decades. It was handed over to the Bangladesh Aerospace & Aviation University in 2019.

“Bangladesh wants to make it an active airbase now. It had sought China’s help to develop the base and China responded very positively. China even offered to get a Pakistani firm linked to the country’s defence establishment as a sub-contractor. We have conveyed our serious concerns over this proposed project to Bangladesh,” a senior MEA official told Swarajya.

The Bangladesh Army has also objected to the interim government’s invitation to the Chinese to develop the air base.

“We want to develop the airbase for our own national needs. But we will not allow the Chinese or any other country to get involved in it. We will ensure the security interests of our neighbours,” asserted Brigadier General Muhammad Nazim-ud-Daula, director of the Bangladesh Army’s Military Operations Directorate.

However, the interim government which wants to establish close strategic and security ties with China and Bangladesh is bent on getting the Chinese involved in developing the airbase.

“There is an acute tussle now between the interim government and the army. Mohammad Yunus and the army chief General Waker-uz-Zaman do not see eye to eye on many things. Yunus is trying to replace the army chief with the present Quarter Master General (QMG) Lieutenant General Mohammad Faizur Rahman who is close to Pakistan and China. If this coup succeeds, then China and Pakistan will enjoy unrestricted access to Bangladesh and its defence establishments,” Lieutenant General (retired) M.K. Singh, an expert on South Asia who is associated with a leading think-tank told Swarajya.

Renowned geostrategist Brahma Chellaney had red-flagged this development.

“An active Lalmonirhat airbase would greatly enhance China's ability to conduct aerial surveillance and reconnaissance on Indian military installations, troop movements and critical infrastructure, including in India's strategically vital Siliguri Corridor,” said Chellaney.

“Any military presence or increased air activity near this corridor is a major concern for India, as its disruption would effectively cut off North East India from the Indian mainland. In a conflict scenario, even if not directly used by Chinese combat aircraft, Lalmonirhat could serve as a logistical hub for China, facilitating the movement of personnel, equipment or intelligence assets in the region,” he pointed out.

Even though India has conveyed its strong opposition to any Chinese or Pakistani involvement in developing the Lalmonirhat air base, it is learnt that those two countries are keen on the proposal since they will gain a strategic presence in the area.

“The prospect of establishing a presence at a place so close to the Siliguri Corridor is obviously a very attractive one for both China and Pakistan and they will not let go of this opportunity. We have learnt that both the countries are leaning hard on Yunus to initiate the process of developing the air base,” said a senior MEA official.

Lt Gen (retired) M. K. Singh said that in case Bangladesh disregards India’s objections and awards the project to develop the air base to China and Pakistan, there are a number of counter-measures that India can take to neutralise that threat.

“We have enough capability to monitor the proposed air base very closely and thwart any threat emanating from it. But for that, we have to enhance our surveillance, defensive and offensive capacities in the Siliguri corridor,” said the army veteran.

Strategic and security affairs experts say that India has the capability to counter any Chinese threat emanating from the three projects in Nepal, Bhutan and Bangladesh.

But those threats are an extra headache for India and will involve deployment of extra resources to ward off these future threats.