'Mine Baby, Mine!' – Where Does India Stand In The Global Race For Securing Copper Supplies?

On February 27, the Union government announced that it has obtained permission to explore copper and cobalt deposits across a sprawling 9,000-sq-km region in Zambia.

This vast expanse, about six times the size of Delhi, lies in Zambia's Northwestern province, neighbouring the copper-belt region where Vedanta Group already operates a significant copper mine.

Exploration efforts — involving prospecting, drilling, mapping, and sampling — are set to begin in the coming month, with the process expected to take two to three years before a detailed report on the viability of commercial mining is ready.

This latest effort by India in copper exploration is not happening in a vacuum though. It’s unfolding against the backdrop of a global copper race, where economic giants like China and the United States are jostling to secure supplies.

But before diving into the global scramble for copper, let’s unravel how this unassuming red metal transforms from raw ore to the backbone of modern infrastructure.

The Copper Journey: From Rock to Revolution

Copper – highly electrically conductive and relatively affordable – is known as ‘the metal of electrification’. It has been used in wiring for 200 years, but today it is also used in the cables, motors, batteries, and electronic components necessary for the energy transition.

Offshore wind, for example, uses about three times as much copper as coal-fired power generation in terms of tons per gigawatt of capacity. An upper-end electric car might include about 78 kilograms of copper per vehicle, compared to about 22 kg in an equivalent gasoline-fuelled model.

Copper’s journey from the depths of the earth to the heart of global industries is a fascinating one — a tale of chemistry, engineering, and relentless demand.

The process starts with mining, where copper is typically extracted from two primary types of ores:

- Sulphide ores, found deeper underground, are costlier to mine and process, thus requiring a higher copper content to be profitable.

- Oxide ores, on the other hand, are closer to the surface, making extraction cheaper and allowing even lower-grade deposits to turn a profit.

The world’s copper heartland lies in South America, with Chile reigning as the top producer of copper ores and concentrates.

Meanwhile, China dominates the next stage of the chain, leading both in refining copper and consuming it.

But the story doesn’t end there. Copper’s enduring appeal lies in its recyclability. Both new and old copper scrap, along with copper alloys, can be melted down, purified, and reintroduced into production. Between 2018 and 2020, recycling contributed to nearly 25–30 per cent of global copper demand — a testament to the metal’s circular economy potential.

Yet despite recycling’s contribution, the world’s hunger for copper shows no signs of slowing.

This brings us to the heart of the matter: why is everyone, from India to the US and China, racing to lock in copper supplies? Isn't there enough available?

A Copper-Hungry Nation with a Supply Crisis

India’s per capita copper consumption is alarmingly low, hovering around 0.6 kg — a stark contrast to the global average of 3.2 kg.

This disparity paints a troubling picture, especially when projections indicate that India’s domestic copper demand could double by 2030 driven by the country’s aggressive push toward clean energy, electrification, and rapid urbanization.

Yet, beneath this surge in demand lies a harsh reality: India is not self-sufficient in meeting its domestic copper demand.

India currently imports close to 50 per cent of its copper — both primary raw materials and recycled scrap — to fuel its industries.

The Lifeblood of Beijing’s Economic Ambitions

Meanwhile, China has strategically secured copper resources worldwide to fuel its industrial juggernaut and green energy ambitions.

India isn’t alone in its pursuit of Zambia’s copper-rich terrain. Canada-based First Quantum Minerals and the Chinese state-owned giant, China Nonferrous Metal Mining, are among the heavyweight producers already entrenched in Zambia’s mining landscape.

But beyond Zambia, China is aggressively expanding its footprint across Africa and beyond — cementing control over critical mineral supplies like copper, cobalt, and lithium, all essential for the renewable energy transition.

In a striking display of this strategy, state-owned China Metallurgical Group Corporation (MCC) broke ground last July on a 25-kilometer road leading to the Mes Aynak Copper Mine in Afghanistan’s Logar province — home to one of the world’s largest untapped copper deposits.

When MCC won the 30-year rights to develop Mes Ayank in 2007, it was hailed by the Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, which oversees China’s state-run companies, as a successful attempt “to greatly alleviate the shortage of copper resources in China, increase China’s strategic resource reserves and enhance China’s influence in international mining industry”.

Under the $4.2 billion investment deal inked in 2018, MCC’s project blueprint extends far beyond establishing mining infrastructure. It includes a power plant, water pumping stations, schools, hospitals, mosques, and even housing — a clear statement of Beijing’s long-term intent to root itself in the region’s economic ecosystem.

And China’s resource quest doesn’t stop in Afghanistan.

In January 2025, the country announced a breakthrough copper discovery on the Tibetan Plateau — an untapped frontier that scientists say could evolve into a world-class copper resource base. The China Geological Survey reported more than 20 million metric tonnes of new copper finds in the region, boosting the plateau’s total proven reserves to 53 million tonnes — accounting for more than half of China’s entire copper stockpile.

These efforts are driven by an insatiable appetite for copper. Data from the International Copper Study Group shows that in 2023, global refined copper consumption reached 27.01 million tonnes — and China devoured more than half of it. The country remains the undisputed leader in global copper consumption.

Four key sectors dominate China’s copper appetite: electric power, home appliances, transportation, and construction — collectively making up 79 per cent of the nation’s total copper use in 2023. And this demand isn’t plateauing anytime soon.

A Dongxing Securities report, as quoted in an SCMP report, predicts consumption will surge past 55 per cent of global demand by 2025, fuelled by a relentless push into low-carbon energy and new-energy infrastructure like electric vehicles, solar power grids, and wind turbines.

Tang Juxing, chief scientist at the China Geological Survey, emphasised the importance of expanding copper reserves through exploration, stating that it is “crucial for building key national resource bases and ensuring the security of the copper-industry supply chain”.

To achieve this, the China Geological Survey has unveiled an ambitious plan to ramp up geological exploration, pioneer technological breakthroughs, and uncover more large-scale copper reserves. The objective is to establish new large-scale copper resource bases and create modern copper-industry demonstration zones.

“We have launched numerous projects to support a new phase of strategic mineral-exploration breakthroughs,” Tang declared.

In one such triumph, the Geological Survey unearthed 3.65 million tonnes of copper in China's northernmost province's Heilongjiang’s Duobaoshan mine — a resource discovery poised to further shore up China’s growing copper reserves.

Across the Pacific: America’s Copper Awakening

With Donald Trump back in office, a seismic shift is underway in the United States' approach to critical minerals. Copper — the lifeblood of clean energy, infrastructure, and defense technologies — is now firmly in Washington’s crosshairs.

As global shortages loom large and China tightens its grip on supply chains, there’s a growing recognition that the US must tap into its own untapped reserves.

In the coming days, Trump is expected to sign an executive order on critical minerals, signalling a push to fast-track domestic mining projects.

At the heart of this effort is Resolution Copper — a mammoth mining project owned by Rio Tinto and BHP near Superior, Arizona. If greenlit, the mine could single-handedly supply a quarter of America’s copper needs, cementing its status as a cornerstone of US industrial resilience.

Another high-stakes project on the table is the Twin Metals copper-nickel mine in Minnesota, owned by Chilean mining giant Antofagasta. While the mine has faced legal and environmental roadblocks for years, the shifting political winds could breathe new life into its prospects.

Yet, America’s biggest challenge isn’t the lack of resources — it’s the red tape. The US is blessed with vast mineral reserves, but its labyrinthine regulatory system has stifled mining development for decades.

According to a June 2024 report by S&P Global, the average time to permit a new mine in the US is a staggering 29 years — the second-longest wait time in the world, trailing only Zambia. The report also noted a jarring reality: since 2002, only three new mines have opened on US soil.

"The problem of global copper shortages could be solved by the US. It is a resource-rich country,” said Chris LaFemina, mining analyst at Jefferies. “The problem is getting permits to develop new mines.”

Trump’s looming executive order, however, could turn the tide. If the administration delivers on permitting reforms and incentives for mining and refining, America may finally have the chance to rewrite its copper story.

Why Copper Mining Matters

India’s copper supply chain is a high-stakes balancing act — a tightrope walk between domestic constraints and global reliance.

On the primary supply front, copper flows from two main streams: domestic mining and imported concentrates. Yet, India’s homegrown mining barely scratches the surface, contributing a mere 46 per cent of the copper needed to fuel its industrial juggernaut. The bulk — a lion’s share — is imported, leaving India precariously exposed to the ebbs and flows of international markets.

At the heart of domestic copper mining stands Hindustan Copper Limited (HCL) — a state-owned titan holding mining leases for over 80 per cent of the country’s copper reserves. But despite this monopoly, production remains stubbornly sluggish.

The numbers tell a sobering story. From 4.13 million tonnes (Mt) in FY19, output plunged to 3.27 Mt by FY21, before crawling to a modest recovery of 3.78 Mt in FY24, according to data from the Ministry of Mines. Copper concentrate production followed a similar downward spiral, sinking 13 per cent over the same period.

The secondary supply chain offers a different narrative — one driven by recycled copper scrap, meeting 54 per cent of India’s copper demand. However, India’s recycling infrastructure lags far behind global standards.

Unlike industrial powerhouses like Germany and China, which funnel scrap through sophisticated smelting and refining processes to maximize yield, India relies on outdated methods: direct remelting of copper and brass scrap. This low-efficiency approach makes India an outlier in the global value chain, where advanced recycling techniques are the norm.

The result? A fragile supply chain, vulnerable to global market tremors. The closure of Sterlite Copper’s plant in Tamil Nadu in 2018 — which once churned out nearly 40 per cent of India’s copper output — flipped the script. India, once a net exporter of copper, became a net importer of copper cathodes almost overnight.

At the core of the copper value chain lies a complex transformation process. Copper concentrate is first smelted into copper anode, which is then refined into copper cathode — the indispensable building block for everything from wires and rods to sheets and industrial components.

Even as domestic refined copper production climbed 12 per cent — from 454 kilotonnes (kt) in FY19 to 509 kt in FY24 — this rise leans heavily on a surge in imported copper concentrates and anodes rather than local production. The growth, while promising on paper, masks an uncomfortable reality: India remains chained to the global copper supply network.

In the face of this imbalance, Hindustan Copper Ltd (HCL) is betting on a bold resurgence. The state-run miner has laid out an ambitious plan to triple output to 12.2 Mt by FY29, driven by an aggressive expansion of existing mines. However, even this dramatic boost may not be enough to satisfy India’s ever-growing appetite for copper.

New players are already entering the arena. Kutch Copper’s maiden plant roared to life last year, while existing refineries are ramping up production. Yet, with demand surging faster than domestic mining can keep pace, the need for imported copper concentrates and anodes is only set to intensify.

Unless India’s mining sector undergoes a transformational overhaul, the nation’s copper future remains tethered — not to its own mines, but to the whims of the global supply chain.