Operation Sindoor Is Just The Beginning

The much anticipated reprisal against Pakistan has finally come with a strategic pinpointed assault on terrorist camps and hideouts in Bahawalpur, Muzaffarabad, Muridke and other locations in Pakistani Punjab and Pakistan-occupied Jammu & Kashmir.

The attacks were carefully calibrated and well thought out by targeting only terrorist facilities, avoiding military and civilian targets—for the time being. The government of India has shown admirable strategic thinking in several senses.

Firstly, the indiscriminate shelling across the LoC within an hour of our attack on Bahawalpur is a tacit admission by the authorities in Pakistan that they have been harbouring terrorists all along. This came days after Pakistan’s Defence Minister said that terrorism was merely “dirty work for the West”.

Let it not be forgotten that after Balakot, Pakistan denied that it even happened. However, the magnitude and intensity of our present assault has forced them to admit that terror, the Pakistani State, and the Pakistani army are essentially synonymous and co-instrumentalities.

The sophistication of the attack, the events leading up to it, and especially statements made by leaders of other major countries and the statements of our own leaders, leave no doubt that there was excellent teamwork and coordination in the various wings of our government throughout the previous two weeks. It is not difficult to join the dots. Statements made by the US President and Vice President as well as the US Secretary of State, leave no doubt that the US had no objection and possibly even encouraged India to destroy the terror camps. At the same time, both the USA and India had probably agreed that escalation into an outright military conflict between the two countries was definitely undesirable in the early stages of the wider undertaking to dismantle Pakistan. 

A strategic phone call from the Russian President two days before Operation Sindoor was another indication that the pincers were closing in on Pakistan. No less significant is the clinching of the Indo-UK trade deal again just a couple of days ago, a deal that has moved at a turtle’s pace for many years, and which was probably clinched with India extracting a very heavy price from the UK in terms of it at least temporarily abandoning its pro-Pakistani tilt in the conflict. The UK needs India too badly economically to wade into India-Pakistan matters right now. The lack of any weighty comment from China after Sindoor also indicates its guarded stance towards the whole matter, for in the end, if the State of Pakistan ceases to exist, China’s adversarial position against India would be downright disadvantageous. 

Pakistan is essentially caught in a bind. If it provides a big kinetic retort, the overwhelming Indian counter-response will cause it to lose large amounts of territory with inevitable centrifugal consequences among its provinces. If it does nothing, the army which is the power centre in Pakistan will lose considerable face among the Pakistani people and will be unable to retain power. In earlier times, calls for Ghazwa-e-Hind or Kashmir banega Pakistan were more than enough for the people to retain confidence in their army. Today even the virulent hatred that Pakistanis have for India in general and Hindus in particular will not be enough for them to maintain any kind of advantage in the ongoing conflict. Psychological deterioration will set in relatively quickly in that country, and all psychological defeats are defeats until death—1971 is a good enough example.

India is mounting a multi-directional attack on our enemy, and now there is little doubt that the aim of the Modi Government is the complete dismemberment of the Pakistani State and a full resolution of all partition related issues, an injustice that was done to Bharat by the Anglo-American cabal at the time of independence. India is sufficiently strong economically, and the USA, Russia, and China, the three other empires of the modern world, are all weaker in relative terms than they were 10 years ago. India has correctly recognised the golden window of opportunity in seeking the complete removal of the Pakistani State. The water wars from the north and control of Gwadar and Karachi from the south are undoubtedly a part of the master plan over the next 2-3 years. 

Pakistan was created to suit the interests of Britain and America, but today it suits the interests of neither America, Russia, or even China to exist in its present form. All these other empires would prefer to deal with a strong India and a gaggle of smaller States like Sindhudesh, Balochistan and Pashtunistan. A Punjabistan rump could always be maintained as an insurance policy by the Americans in case India becomes too strong or powerful by 2035. In the short run, the US seems to be assisting India as it engages in sabre-rattling with China. In the medium run, it would not like India to become another China. In the end, America would become extremely nervous if Bharat, Russia, and China were to form a united Eurasian conglomerate 15 years from now.

All in all, the present situation is a case of history taking a turn in front of our eyes, and it would certainly become a textbook example of how geopolitics is conducted between empires in the 21st century.

“Will you not stop quoting laws to us who are girded with swords?” - Life of Pompey, Plutarch