DGP Senkumar Was Right About The Changing Demography Of Kerala; Here’s The Data

A sudden and intense controversy has arisen in Kerala on the issue of relative number of children born to different communities there. A recently retired chief of Kerala police has stated in an interview that of all children born in the state in 2015, as many as 42 per cent were Muslim, even though the share of Muslims in the total population of the state, as counted in Census 2011, was only 26.6 per cent. The former police chief has been accused of misrepresenting facts and fomenting communal discord.

A detailed scrutiny of data though reveals numbers even more startling than the one put forth by the former state police chief. Vital statistics for the last several years show that the share of Muslims in the total live births recorded in the state has been rising rapidly at least since 2008. In that year, of all live births in the state, 36.3 per cent belonged to Muslim families. That proportion has been steadily rising and had reached 41.5 per cent in 2015. Meanwhile, the share of Hindu births in the total live births has declined from 45.0 to 42.9 per cent, and of Christian births from 17.6 to 15.5 per cent.

The phenomenon of higher and rising share of Muslims in live births in Kerala has to be read with the higher and rising share of Muslims in the child (0-6 years) population of the state as counted in Census 2011 and 2001. In 2011, 36.74 per cent of the children in Kerala were Muslim; their share in 2001 was 31.08 per cent. Census 2011 also counted 14.4 children among every 100 Muslims as compared to only 8.93 among every 100 Hindus and 8.91 among every 100 Christians. The gap between the number of children per hundred of the population between Muslims and Hindus in 2011 was of 5.45 children; that gap was of 4.19 children in 2001. Thus, all parameters seem to confirm the trend of rising fertility amongst Muslims, and a large growth gap between Muslims and others.

Religious breakup for 2012 is unreliable

Share of Christians has also declined

Hindus and Christians have both shed 2.2 percentage points off their share

Muslim share in live births is far above their share in population

Share of Muslims in the live births is now far above their share in the total population as counted in 2011. According to Census 2011, Muslims in Kerala form only 26.6 per cent of the population. But their share in the live births in 2015 was as high as 41.4 per cent. On the other hand, Hindus have a share of 54.7 per cent in the population, but their share in live births is only 42.3 per cent. For Christians also, their share of 15.4 per cent in total live births is far below their share of 18.4 per cent in the population. This large gap between the share of births and share of population in different communities indicates that the relative balance of population between Muslims and others is unlikely to stabilise and the share of Muslims shall keep rising for some time to come.

Rapidly rising share of Muslims in live births is not a statistical illusion

Imbalance in the number of children counted in the Census

According to Census 2011, there are 8.9 children (of age 0-6 years) per hundred of the population among Hindus and 14.4 among Muslims. Thus there are 5.5 extra children among Muslims for every 100 of the population as compared to Hindus. In 2001, the number of children per hundred of the population was 11.91 among Christians, 10.81 among Hindus and 14.99 among Muslims. The gap between Hindus and Muslims then was of 4.2 children per hundred; it has widened to 5.5 in 2011.

Number of children per hundred of the population of Muslims is significantly above that of Hindus in all districts. In Kannur and Kasaragod, the difference is of more than six children, in Kozhikode and Palakkad of more than five children and in Malappuram, Thrissur, Ernakulam and Thiruvananthapuram of more than four children. In general, the difference seems to get narrower as we move from the north to south. Share of Muslims in the total population of the districts of also declines from north to south.

Conclusion

The share of Muslims in the child (0-6 years) population of Kerala and their share in the live births in the state are much higher than their share in the population, and have been rising rapidly. Muslims have a share of 41.45 per cent in the live births in 2015 compared to 36.32 per cent in 2008. And they have a share of 36.74 per cent in the 0-6 years population of the state in 2011 compared to 31.08 per cent in 2001. Their share in the total population of the state as counted in Census 2011 was only 26.56 per cent.

Census 2011 has recorded similar and even larger gaps in the share of Muslims in the child (0-6 years) population in several states and districts of India. We shall present that data in a subsequent note. But the case of Kerala is especially striking.

Vital statistics data for Kerala is among the most reliable in the country. Given so much of good reliable data, why don’t our demographers apply their standard analytical tools to predict the likely trends of the changing religious demography of Kerala? It would be a very interesting academic research problem to pursue and it may also help India in evolving an appropriate policy for maintaining demographic equilibrium among various religious communities. The kind of imbalance that is developing in Kerala is difficult to sustain for any reasonably functional polity.