Madhya Pradesh 2018: Ambiguity Is King As State Continues To See-Saw Between Congress And The BJP

5:00 PM IST: Ambiguity Reigns Supreme In MP: Congress leading towards the halfway mark with BJP not far behind as Swarajya closes its live coverage.

MP was in the middle of an agrarian crisis. The farmer was not able to get the announced MSP in the mandis. The failure was on the implementation side not on the policy side, which had more crops under MSP, more procurement and increased prices.

The MP election results should be looked as a wake up call for agri-policies in an era of surpluses. It should not surprise us if the newly installed state governments in all 3 states and the central government goes for competitive farmer packages with loan waivers.

4:00 PM IST: Even as latest trends show Congress gaining a slight advantage, with a lead in 115 seats, ambiguity persists over which party will ultimately triumph in Madhya Pradesh, as BJP still holds a lead in at least 105 seats.

Three-time Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan seems to  have done a much better job of fighting anti-incumbency forces compared to BJP’s performance in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh.

BSP, SP and independents may eventually play kingmaker after the final results are announced, with Mayawati's party holding a lead in four seats, and the Samajwadi party in one seat. Another five seats are currently dominated by votes for independents or smaller political entities. SP has decided to throw in their lot with the Congress while BSP's stance is less clear, with its leaders stating that they had not been contacted by either party's leaders yet, for their support.

While Shivraj is sure to become the fourth-time Chief Minister if the saffron party manages to scramble across the halfway mark, Congress's choice for the chief ministerial post is less clear, with the internal rivalry between its two well-known faces, Jyotiraditya Scindia and Kamal Nath, remaining unresolved.

3:15 PM IST: BJP and Congress continue to remain neck to neck in the traditional BJP bastion

In ten assembly seats of MP, Congress is leading by a margin of less than one thousand votes, on the other hand, BJP's lead is less than one thousand votes in 6 seats.

2:15 PM IST: MP is heading towards a photo finish.

After 5 rounds of counting, margin of leads seats in 75 seats are under 2,000. Any further analysis of trends needs to wait for at least 6-7 rounds of counting.  Right now it's all see saw though BJP is expected to lose some urban seats.

Close fights:

• INC leading in Dhamtari with a margin of 122 votes and in Keshkal with a margin of 195 votes.
• BJP leading in Jashpur with a margin of 266 votes.
• BJP leading in Manendragarh with a margin of just 45 votes.

1:50 PM IST: Congress president Rahul Gandhi likely to address a press conference at 2 pm

The 0.8 per cent vote margin between BJP and Congress in MP is less than the 1.5 per cent of NOTA votes.

1:30 PM IST: MP CM Shivraj Singh Chauhan leading Congress' Arun Subhashchandra by 20,433 votes.

With cut-throat fight between incumbent BJP and Congress, both are eyeing BSP and other parties' MLAs, India Today has reported.

Though the fortunes of the BJP and the Congress have been fluctuating violently in the past few hours in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, the markets are on a bull run for the day. After recovering morning's losses, BSE's Sensex has risen by more than 150 points. The government is also expected to make an announcement regarding Urjit Patel's replacement as the governor of RBI, later in the day.

1:15 PM IST: The None of the above (NOTA) option was exercised at the following rates as per ECI data:

• Madhya Pradesh- 1.5%
• Chhattisgarh- 2.4%
• Rajasthan- 1.3%
• Telangana- 1.1%
• Mizoram-0.4%

Samajwadi Party, which has lead on one seat in MP as per official ECI figures, has said that it will support Congress in the state.

1:05 PM IST: BJP Leads in 110 seats, two higher than the Congress.

Prime Minister Modi's impact: Out of 13 rallies by Modi in key constituencies, the BJP is leading in 9 including Mandsaur. Shivraj Singh Chauhan is leading by 19,293 votes in his constituency Budhni. Pradeep Bhandari of Jan Ki Baat has tweeted that more than 22 seats in MP have a margin of less than 10,000 votes.

12:40 PM IST: DU Assistant professor and Dalit columnist Abhinav Prakash lauds BSP performance

Shyam Bihari Jaisawal of BJP leads Congress' Dr. Vinay Jaiswal by razor thin margin of 45 votes. "I am just a sepoy, Rahul Gandhi showed great character, turned disaster into victory," Congress leader Navjot Singh Sidhu on election numbers while speaking on India Today.

12:15 PM IST: Voting percentage as per ECI

12:10 PM IST: BJP Minister Narendra Singh Tomar expresses optimism, says BJP will form government in MP

With reversal of fortunes for the BJP in Madhya Pradesh and Congress still falling short of the magic number in Rajasthan, the markets appear to be cheering these latest electoral developments. The stock markers have recovered their losses of today's (11 December 2018) morning trading session. While BSE's Sensex has recovered 500 points from the day's low, it still down by 0.14%. However, BSE's midcap and smallcap sectors have outperformed the Sensex.

11:55 AM IST: Vote share for major parties in Madhya Pradesh as per ECI updates are as follows:

• BJP- 41.9%
• INC- 41.4%
• IND- 5.8%
• BSP- 4.3%

11:35 AM IST: In a shocker, MP flips, BJP has revived its fortunes, leading in 110 seats while Congress trails at 109

Senior Congress leader Kamalnath says that he is confident of the party getting a full majority.

11:25 AM IST: Numbers are stabilising. Congress eagerly waits for majority hovering a little over 110 seats while BJP makes a progress to 106

Despite 12 years of incumbency, Shivraj Singh is giving tough fight to Congress. Internal fights may have harmed Congress prospects in the state while former has a solid performance record behind him.

10:45 AM IST: Congress crosses halfway mark in Madhya Pradesh, leading in 116 seats, while BJP shrinks to 98

As per News X numbers, Congress has now crossed the half-way mark in Madhya Pradesh, leading in 116 seats.

Region Wise Leads in MP as per News 18 reports:

• Mahakaushal Region : Congress leading on 21 seats in the region while BJP leading on 21 seats.
• Central MP : BJP leading in 21 seats while Congress in 14 seats.
• Gwaliar-Chambal : Congress leading in 18 seats while BJP in 12 seats.
• Bundelkhand : Congress leads in 14 seats while BJP in 10 seats.
• Malwa-Nimaad : Congress leads in 34 seats with BJP in 29 seats.
• Vindhya : Congress leading in 13 seats while BJP in 11 seats.

10:30 AM IST: Congress maintains lead on 113 seats while BJP on 105. Others are leading 12 seats.

Chambal district : BJP leading on 13 seats while Congress maintaining leads on 16 seats.

Madhya Pradesh elections have thus far have defied conventional political punditry. BJP is facing huge setback in urban areas which managing to retrieve lost ground in what has been its traditionally weak regions of the state. The perceived anger over GST more than much discussed agrarian distress seems to have hurt BJP more.

10:15 AM IST: Congress maintains lead in 113 seats while BJP is at 105. Others are leading in 12 seats.

Congress leading with 6 seats in Satna district while BJP is leading on 1 seat. Jitu Patwari of Congress trailing from Rau seat of MP. BJP is leading on 2 seats in Neemuch district while Congress leads on 1 seat.

10:00 AM IST: BJP shows promise despite anti-incumbency, matches up to Congress at 110

Dr. Narottam Mishra, a cabinet minister in the Shivraj government, is trailing from Datia constituency, reports Republic TV.

Balvir Singh Dandotiya of BSP is leading Raghuraj Singh Kansana of INC in Morena constituency. The seat was won by BJP in previous elections.

As per a report by India Today, Madhya Pradesh School Education Minister Deepak Joshi and Public Works Department (PWD) Minister Rampal Singh are both trailing in their respective constituencies, even as Shivraj Singh Couhan continues to hold on to his early lead in Budhni.

09:45 AM IST: Congress leads in 110 seats while BJP is at 102. Others are leading on 8 seats

After ruling MP for more than a decade, Shivraj Singh Chouhan may get a break this term. Anti-incumbency sentiment seems to have worked in favour of Congress which leads at 110 seats while BJP trails behind at 102. It is still too soon to say.

09:30 AM IST: Region-wise performance of Congress and BJP

In Indore-3, one of Indore district's eight assembly constituencies, BJP National General Secretary Kailash Vijaywargiya’s son Akash Vijaywargiya is currently leading against Congress's Ashwin Joshi, reports News X.

If we go region-wise, in Mahakoshal which is Kamal Nath's stronghold, BJP is leading in 11 while Congress in only 4. This should dash any hopes of Kamal Nath's CM aspirations if Congress eventually wins.

In Bundelkhand, Congress is ahead in 8 seats while BJP is leading in 2. In Chambal, Congress is ahead in 10, BJP in 2. In Malwa non-tribal region, BJP is ahead of Congress by 14-11. In Malwa tribal, Congress is only marginally leading BJP by 8-7 seats.

09:25 AM IST: BJP is leading in 80 seats while Congress at 92. Shivraj Singh Chouhan holds an early lead in Budhni constituency

Congress leader Digvijay Singh says that he is confident of Congress win in MP but anything can be said on results only after 12 pm. Rajyavardhan Singh of BJP leading in Narsinghgarh, Nandini Maravi (BJP) leading in Sihora constituency. Narsinghgarh seat was earlier won by Girish Bhandari who is trailing to BJP's Rajyavardhan Singh by thin margin of 57 votes.

09:10 AM IST: BJP is leading in 55 seats while Congress at 60. Shivraj Singh Chouhan holds an early lead in Budhni constituency

In very early leads, usually drawn based on postal ballots and initial ground reports, Madhya Pradesh results seem close. Both BJP and Congress are neck to neck. Of course each TV channel has different sources, and data will converge only around 9.30 AM when EVM counting data starts flowing in. Regional networks like ETV, showing BJP slightly ahead in the game.

Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan holds an early lead in Budhni constituency, reports Zee News.

08:55 AM IST: BJP is leading in 55 seats while Congress is at 60. Others have been able to lead in 2 seats.

BJP is leading in Khargone and Ghoradongri - the two bellwether seats in Madhya Pradesh. Whoever wins here goes on to win the state.

08:40 AM IST: Counting has already begun. Congress is leading in 14 seats, BJP is at 15 while others haven’t opened account yet.

The counting has already begun for Madhya Pradesh Assembly elections. 29 seats out of 230 have been declared. Out of these, BJP has won 15 while Congress is close behind at 14. Others are yet to open their account.

08:21 AM IST: So what are exit polls pointing to in Madhya Pradesh?

If we go by the crude yardstick, an aggregate of exit polls, it suggests that BJP's 15 year hold over the state is set to decisively end.

1. A post -Poll Survey conducted by Lokniti-CSDS (generally considered more credible that exit polls in psephological parlance) predicted a Congress Government in the state

-Congress is likely to secure 43% of the total votes polled representing a swing of seven percentage points since the 2013 elections.

-The incumbent Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is likely to end up three points behind the Congress with 40% of the total votes.

-The Bahujan Samaj Party is likely to secure 5% votes and other parties and independent candidates about 12%.

-Congress to be leading in all the regions of the state except Malwa North, where the BJP seems to be holding on, albeit with a reduced vote share as compared to the 2013 election.

-On the back of massive Dalit and Adivasi support, the Congress is likely to dominate in the regions of Chambal, Bundelkhand, Vindhya Pradesh, Mahakoshal and Nimar.

- A strong sense of fatigue among voters with the Shivraj Singh Chouhan-led BJP government, which has been in power for three continuous terms.

Based on this survey, ABP News-Lokniti CSDS predicted a win for Congress in Madhya Pradesh With 94 seats to BJP and 126 seats to Congress.

2. India Today-Axis My India exit poll has predicted that it will be a fight to finish between Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Congress party in Madhya Pradesh.
According to this exit poll

-BJP is set to win just 102 seats in the 230-seat state legislative assembly registering a staggering loss of 55 seats, in comparison to the last assembly poll 41% vote share for Congress and 40% for BJP

-Congress is doing well all subregions of the state. In the Chambal region, the vote share of Congress is likely to be 47 per cent as opposed to BJP's 33, while in the Bundelkhand region, Congress is set to gain 40 per cent with lagging behind at BJP 38 per cent of the vote share. Congress is set to have a vote share of as much as 41 per cent in the Mahakoshal region, as opposed to BJP's 38.

3. Times Now-CNX predicted a win for BJP in Madhya Pradesh, with 126 seats with Congress finishing a distant second in the state, with 89 seats.

4. Jan Ki Baat exit polls predicts the BJP will have the slight edge but the seat share of BJP is anticipated to drastically fall from the electoral high of 165-seats in 2013 to 108-128 seats in 2018 assembly elections. For Congress, the seat share is projected to rise from 58 seats to 95-115 seats in the 2018.

Directionally the exit polls suggest that anywhere between between 6-8% vote share shift from the BJP to the Congress spelling huge trouble for the BJP .
Three terms of aggregated anti-incumbency, the large-scale farm crisis despite being a miracle state of India in agriculture could mean end of Shivraj Singh Chauhan Rule in MP

07:51 AM IST: Madhya Pradesh last went to polls in the year 2013 and in a two way fight, the Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP) emerged victorious bagging 165 of the 230 total seats up for grabs. The BJP registered a vote share of 44.87 per cent and the Congress was reduced to just 58 seats, its tally down by 13 the previous 2008 number.

Here’s a rundown of the numbers for the last three assembly elections in the state,

The last three national elections, meanwhile, threw up the following figures

The demographic composition for Madhya Pradesh is as follows,

And before the counting begins, here are the top commentaries from Swarajya on the Madhya Pradesh assembly elections for 2018.

1. Why The Madhya Pradesh Growth Story Is Not Only About Agriculture

2. These 66 Seats Hold The Key To The BJP’s Fourth Term In Madhya Pradesh

3. In Numbers: How Madhya Pradesh Under Shivraj Singh Chouhan Discarded The ‘Bimaru’ Tag

4. Why #MadhyaPradesh2018 Is Actually Six Regional Elections In One