Rajasthan 2018: As ‘Queen’ Bids Adieu, Confusion Over ‘King’ Prevails 

5.47 PM: A newly floated tribal party does well in southern Rajasthan.

A newly formed tribal party has spoiled the prospects of poll calculations of the BJP in southern Rajasthan.

The Bharatiya Tribal Party (BTP) contested 11 seats, but it was in serious contention in four seats of Dungarpur district. Adivasis constitute 73 per cent of Dungarpur’s 1.4 million population.

Founded by tribal leader Chhotubhai Vasava in the neighbouring Gujarat in 2017 – he parted ways with Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal [United] in the run up to the Gujarat election – the BTP has expanded to neighbouring Rajasthan by making an electoral foray.

The BJP had swept Dungarpur district in the last election, winning all four seats, but the BTP has snatched two seats in this election.

The BJP, which won all four seats reserved for the Scheduled Tribes – Aspur, Chorasi, Dungarpur and Sagwara – lost two of them – Chorasi and Sagwara – to the BTP.

The BTP claims it is fighting to recognise the rights of adivasis to protect and manage their lands, besides championing specific schemes for adivasi students and the revival of adivasi culture.

4.00 PM: The results in Rajasthan are disappointing for the BJP.

But is masks what it was up against in leading up to the polls. The anti incumbency was so strong that it was facing a near wipe out or close to 40 seats in surveys. The saving grace was supposed to be the ticket distribution in which 100-120 MLAs were expected to face the axe.

Ultimately, only 43 MLAs were denied tickets with Raje holding stubborn and calling the shots. After Congress tried harakiri with it's own bungling in ticket distribution, the play for the BJP was arresting the anti-incumbency. PM Modi’s inspired campaigning gave the party a huge boost in the end, but the chasm was just too big to be bridged. The party expected 75 plus 45 close contests in which it was hoping for the kiss of lady luck. But, alas!

2.20 PM: In worrying signs for the BJP, the disenchantment among urban voters is palpable in the states that went to polls. The party is facing the prospect of losing more than half of the seats in Jaipur City, a traditional stronghold. Out of the 8 seats, BJP is leading in just three while Congress has taken a decisive lead in four. Malaviya Nagar, considered a strong bastion of the saffron party, is too close to call. BJP has won eight successive Lok Sabha elections in Jaipur Urban and has not lost since 1989. BJP has serious introspection to do on its poor performance in Jaipur.

Here are some Jaipur Urban Trends:

1. Haws Mahal - Congress Leads
2. Vidhyadhar Nagar - BJP Leads
3. Civil Lines - Congress Leads
4. Kishan Pole - Congress Leads
5. Adarsh Nagar - Congress Leads
6. Malviya Nagar - Dead Heat
7. Sanganer - BJP Leads
8. Bagru - BJP Slightly Ahead

1.56 PM: No upsets have been reported among the political bigwigs in Rajasthan.

Both the former CMs, Vasundhare Raje of BJP, and Ashok Gehlot of Congress, are leading in their respective constituencies. Congress stalwart Sachin Pilot has also maintained a comfortable lead in Tonk, and Gulab Chand Kataria of BJP has marched ahead in Udaipur. But while Ashok Parnami of BJP trails in Adarsh Nagar and Rameshwar Lal Dudi of Congress is behind rivals in Nokha. (Source: NDTV).

1.45 PM: Official ECI trends say Congress is leading in 100 seats, BJP leading in 73 seats, BSP in 5, CPM in 2 and others in 19 seats in Rajasthan.

1.35 PM: Though the fortunes of the BJP and the Congress have been fluctuating violently in the past few hours in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, the markets are on a bull run for the day. After recovering morning's losses, BSE's Sensex has risen by more than 150 points. The government is also expected to make an announcement regarding Urjit Patel's replacement as the governor of RBI, later in the day.

1.14 PM: The BJP appears to be staging an upset in the elections and is aggressively closing in on the Congress. While Congress still leads in 92 seats, the BJP is not far behind, with 86 seats.

1.13 PM: In the border district of Jaisalmer, Rooparam, of the Congress, is leading with a total of 57,550 votes. His closest competitor, Sangsingh Bhati of the BJP, accounts for only 41,315 votes. It should be noted that a BSF (Border Security Force) study has shown that this district is witnessing drastic demographic changes, with Muslim population increasing at a growth rate of 22-25 per cent. However, the non-Muslim population is growing only by 8-10 per cent. Also, the Muslim children are found to be increasingly attending mosques in large numbers.

1.00 PM: The prestigious seat of Udaipur in Rajasthan is witnessing a nail-biting contest between the BJP candidate, Gulab Chand Kataria, and the Congress candidate, Girija Vyas. While the latter leads with 35,845 votes, the former trails with 35,391 votes. A difference of 454 votes separates the two.

11.55 AM: With the reverse in fortunes for the BJP in Madhya Pradesh and the Congress still falling short of the magic number in Rajasthan, the markets appear to be cheering these latest electoral developments. The stock markets have recovered their losses of today's (11 December 2018) morning trading session. While BSE's Sensex has recovered 500 points from the day's low, it is still down by 0.14 per cent. However, BSE's midcap and smallcap sectors have outperformed the Sensex.

11.50 AM: According to ECI, BJP and Congress are at same vote share but Congress conversion of vote share into seats is better.

Similarly, the BJP is ahead of Congress on vote share in Madhya Pradesh, but Congress is ahead of BJP in seat count.

11.40 AM: The 'Others' candidates that are leading in around 25 seats are either Independents (IND) or belong to political parties like RLP (Rashtriya Loktantrik Party), Mayawati's BSP (Bahujan Samajwadi Party) and Arvind Kejriwal's AAP (Aam Aadmi Party).

11.37 AM: Ashok Gehlot may have the last laugh

A calculated operator, not given to rhetorical flourish, the Congress may pick him to lead the state if it has a slender majority. He is seen as someone who can run a well-oiled patronage machinery without upsetting the complex caste calculus of the state.

According to many political observers in the state, a sweeping victory in Rajasthan may have tempted the Congress to pitchfork the young dynast Sachin Pilot to the CM chair.

Now that the Congress may have to reckon with a simple majority, it may have to fall back on its ace troubleshooter Gehlot to manage the state. It also helps that Gehlot, who hails from a numerically insignificant OBC community, can navigate the caste cauldron without upsetting four major social groups.

11.14 AM: Vasundhara Raje leading by 8,845 votes from Jhalrapata, says Indian Express.

11.10 AM: It’s back to Sonia, who will decide the next CM, according to Ashok Gehlot

10.45 AM: Vasundhare fights back, but BJP will still lose power in Rajasthan. Six months ago, it looked like a landslide for Congress in Rajasthan and forecasts were abound that BJP will suffer a humiliating defeat. It appears though that Raje, the charismatic CM of the state, may lead BJP to a creditable tally of around 80 seats. However, Congress, which is leading in more than 100 seats, will form the government.

10.42 AM: Official Election Commission of India trends: While BJP leads in 71 seats, Congress marches ahead in 91 seats. Others take over 22 seats.

10.30 AM: C P Joshi, Congress party candidate, is trailing in his constituency of Nathdwara in the state. In November 2018, it was alleged that he had stated, "Only Brahmins are learned enough to speak about Hinduism." He added in a video, "Uma Bharti is a Lodhi, and she talks about Hinduism, Modi ji talks about Hinduism. It's only Brahmins who don't talk about it. In 50 years, they have lost their mind. The country is being misled."

10.14 AM: According to a study conducted by BSF (Border Security Force), there appears to be demographic shift in Jaisalmer, a border district of Rajasthan. While the Muslim population is witnessing a growth rate of 22-25 per cent, the non-Muslim population is only increasing 8-10 per cent. The study also noted that the religiosity among the Muslims has increased with more children attending mosques and at a more frequent rate.

10:01 AM: Tables appear to be turning against the BJP in Rajasthan, with the party witnessing a negative change in 91 seats of the state assembly polls. On the other hand, a resurgent Congress has gained a positive advantage in 79 seats. The state Assembly has a total of 199 seats and a party needs only 100 seats to form the government.

9:55 AM: Continuing the downturn trend of yesterday's trading session, both the Indian benchmark indices are trading below par. While BSE's Sensex has fallen 500 points, NSE's Nifty stands below 10,400. Rupee has also lost 1.5 per cent of its value today.

09.50 AM: According to Centre For Monitoring Indian Economy, Rajasthan has attracted ₹90,750 crore of investment between 2013-18 under the Vasundhare Raje-led BJP Government. This represents a 25 per cent increase over the preceding five years of the Congress government. Also, nearly 60 per cent of Rajasthan's workforce is engaged in Agriculture. This higher than the national average of less than 49 per cent. However, over 90 per cent of all households in Rajasthan have an electricity connection.

9.40 AM: BJP jumps lead in 9 seats to 74; Congress now at 92; others still at 3

Before the next seat-share update of the elections, you can, in the meanwhile, read this in-depth look at the electoral politics of Rajasthan:

Why Caste Matters In Rajasthan More Than It Does In Other States:

9.16 AM: Congress is leading in 94, BJP in 65, others in 3 segments.

Yesterday: The stock markets ended in a rout yesterday (10 December 2018) with BSE’s Sensex down by 713 points and NSE's Nifty losing 205.25 points. Yesterday's trading session was the first one after the exit polls began doing the media rounds on Friday. Many of them have either predicted a loss or a close finish for the BJP (Bharatiya Janata Party) in the three major states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh.

As of 9 AM, while the Congress' former CM, Ashok Gehlot, is leading in the Sardapura constituency, BJP's caretaker CM, Vasundhare Raje, is also leading in her Jhalrapatan seat. Other Congress heavyweights like Sachin Pilot (Tonk) and C P Joshi (Nathdwara) are also leading in their respective constituencies.

08:55 AM: According to early trends, Rajasthan is heading towards a decisive verdict with Congress comfortably ahead. According to NDTV, Congress is ahead in 35 out of the 60 seats for which trends are available, while India Today projects Congress ahead in 53 seats, with BJP lagging behind with just 35 seats.

08.20 AM IST: Unlike in the case of MP and Chattisgarh, the general direction of exit polls in Rajasthan point to a decisive victory for Congress, consistent with the electoral behaviour of the state that tends to uproot the incumbent government every five years.

Since 1998, the state has alternated between the Congress and the BJP. Neither party has been able to retain power for consecutive terms. The last time a party won back-to-back Assembly elections in Rajasthan was in 1993 when the Bhairon Singh Shekhawat-led BJP pipped the Congress and retained power in state with the support of Independents. Here are some findings:

1. CSDS -Lokniti has made an fairly outlier prediction in Rajasthan, though giving a slight edge to Congress.

- Based on a combination of exit poll and pre-poll study, the agency predicts that the election is set to go down to the wire, opening up the possibility of the state bucking its trend of changing its government every five years.

- As per Lokniti– CSDS survey, Congress and BJP are locked in a close contest. The Congress is estimated to secure 41.5 per cent of the votes, whereas the BJP could end up with 40 per cent of the votes. The rest of the votes are likely to be garnered by BSP, Hanuman Beniwal’s Rashtriya Loktantrik Party, Independents and other parties.

- The survey found the anti-incumbency sentiment to be very strong in the state; however, the Congress seems unable to capitalise on it fully because of the presence of rebels and newly formed parties, which have gained traction among a sizeable section of voters.

The survey also claims that anti-incumbency sentiment is not uniformly spread in different regions of Rajasthan, opening up the possibility of potential surprises on counting day.

2. India Today-Axis My India Exit, however, predicts a sweeping victory for Congress. It says:

- Congress is set to win anything between 119 and 141 seats out of the total 200 and garner 42 per cent vote share to oust the Vasundhara Raje-led BJP government.

- BJP will be decimated and predicted to win just in the range of 55-72 seats. The party has just managed to get 37 per cent votes, according to the exit poll.

- A thumb rule of Rajasthan is that, whoever wins the Mewar region wins the state. As per the India Today-Axis My India exit poll, Congress is comfortably ahead in the crucial Marwar region with a prediction of 41 per cent (27 seats) as opposed to BJP’s share of 35 per cent (11 seats).


- Even in Dhundhan (Jaipur), Congress is predicted to be comfortably ahead with a vote share of 46 per cent (33 seats) in comparison to BJP’s 36 per cent (11 seats).


3. Times Now-CNX forecast 105 seats for the Congress and 85 for the BJP.


4. Republic TV-Jan Ki Baat by emerging pollster Pradip Bhandari forecasts a tighter race between the two parties. It gave the Congress and the BJP 81-101 and 83-103 seats respectively.

07:36 AM IST: Rajasthan last went to polls in the year 2013 and in a two way fight, the Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP) emerged victorious bagging 80 per cent of the total seats. The BJP registered a vote share of 45.2 per cent and the Congress was reduced to just 21 seats.

Rajasthan, however, has historically seen a trend of replacing incumbent governments and exit polls seem to suggest a similar trend this year too. There has been a major discontent among the Rajput community in the state which amounts to about 12 percent of the state’s population and that could have a major impact on the fortunes of the incumbent BJP government. On the other hand, the initial lead generated by the Congress seems to have met a small roadblock with the factionalism playing out between the two primary leaders, Sachin Pilot and Ashok Gehlot.

As Rajasthan voted in 2018, issues at the forefront were:

· Massive discontent among Rajputs after multiple agitations

· Perceived public sentiment against Vasundhara Raje

· Faction based squabbles within the Congress

· Hanuman Beniwal and Kirori Lal Meena factor

· Trend of voting out incumbent governments in the state