Karnataka: Dynasty Politics, Internal Sabotage Does The BJP In, As Congress Seals Victory In All Three Assemblies

The Karnataka by-elections in Sandur, Channapatna, and Shiggaon have yielded surprising results that will likely send ripples through the state’s political landscape.

While Congress' victory in Sandur was largely anticipated due to its historical dominance there, the defeats of Nikhil Kumaraswamy (JD(S)) in Channapatna and Bharat Bommai (BJP) in Shiggaon were unexpected setbacks for the BJP-JD(S) alliance, signalling a growing discontent with their leadership and strategies.

The Fall in Strongholds

Shiggaon (BJP stronghold): Shiggaon, the constituency of former Chief Minister Basavaraj Bommai, was considered a bastion of the BJP. However, the loss of Bharat Bommai, Basavaraj's son, to Congress' Yasir Ahmed Khan Pathan is a serious blow. The Bommai family has enjoyed significant clout in this region, and this defeat signals eroding trust in the BJP, even in its safest seats.

The result is particularly alarming as it underscores a failure to leverage the narrative of misgovernance under the Siddaramaiah government, despite accusations of corruption such as the MUDA and Valmiki scams.

Channapatna (JD(S) stronghold): Nikhil Kumaraswamy’s loss in Channapatna adds another dimension to the JD(S) decline. This constituency has been a stronghold of the party, represented previously by Union Minister and former chief minister H.D. Kumaraswamy.

The BJP’s failure to give a ticket to C.P. Yogeshwar, a local heavyweight, forced him to join Congress at the last moment — a move that turned the tide in Congress’ favour. The JD(S), which relied heavily on its traditional voter base, failed to counter this shift, highlighting its dwindling grassroots connect. This will be the third time Nikhil will be losing an election, and things are just about to get tougher for the regional party.

Sandur (Congress fortress): Congress retained Sandur, reaffirming its dominance in this constituency. While the BJP hoped for an upset, they failed to capitalise on anti-incumbency sentiment. Congress’ grassroots strength and organisation paid off, especially as the BJP struggled to present a convincing local leadership alternative.

Their candidate, Bangaru Hanumanthu, was projected as an 'outsider' by the Congress and they heavily campaigned against Gali Janardhan Reddy's influence in the election. Sandur is a part of the mineral-rich district of Ballari in Karnataka, and it has a significant amount of Scheduled Tribe (ST) votes.

B.Y. Vijayendra, the BJP’s state president, faces growing scrutiny, particularly for his alleged dynastic promotions. The party rank-and-file has openly expressed dissatisfaction with the leadership's decisions, further weakening the BJP's organisational unity.

Despite attempting to spotlight issues like the Waqf properties controversy and alleged land-grabbing, the BJP could not effectively mobilise voters. The defeats in these key constituencies indicate that the BJP’s narratives failed to gain traction, even in constituencies where they could historically rely on strongholds and loyal voter bases.

For the JD(S), the loss of Nikhil Kumaraswamy signals diminishing influence, even in traditional heartlands. The alliance with the BJP, which many viewed as opportunistic, appears to have alienated sections of the JD(S) voter base.

Implications for State Politics

The by-election results are a warning shot for the BJP-JD(S) alliance and reflect broader dissatisfaction with their performance. For the Congress, these victories will bolster confidence and provide much-needed momentum as they seek to consolidate power in Karnataka.

However, it will be interesting to watch what unfolds within the Congress party in the days to come as deputy chief minister D K Shivakumar will be emboldened by this victory. It was a contest in the Vokkaliga heartland for dominance, and it is clear that the loss that his brother D K Suresh incurred in Bengaluru Rural Lok Sabha constituency has now been avenged with the victory in Channapatna.

Will this push Shivakumar and his loyalists to make a move against CM Siddaramaiah and aim for the throne?

B.Y. Vijayendra’s position as BJP state president is likely to weaken further, with mounting pressure from within the BJP to reorganise and rethink its strategy. For the JD(S), these losses add to the perception that it is losing relevance in Karnataka's political arena.

In sum, these by-elections underscore the need for both BJP and JD(S) to introspect deeply, particularly on candidate selection, alliance strategy, and their failure to counter Congress’ narrative effectively. With anti-incumbency against Congress unable to translate into votes, the BJP-JD(S) faces the daunting task of regaining voter trust in the run-up to future elections.