Three Constituencies, Three 'Nepo' Candidates And Three Takeaways From Karnataka's Upcoming By-Polls

On November 13, Wednesday, Karnataka will be conducting by-elections to three assembly constituencies vacated after the conclusion of the 2024 general elections.

Former Chief Ministers Basavaraj Bommai and H D Kumaraswamy vacated the Shiggaon and Channapatna assembly constituencies after their election from the Mandya and Haveri Lok Sabha seats respectively. On the other hand, former MLA E Tukaram, a senior Congress leader, who won from the Sandur AC is now the Member of Parliament from Bellary Lok Sabha.

Interestingly, all three assemblies are now being constested for by three 'dynasts' — Union Minister H D Kumaraswamy's son Nikhil Kumar is the Janata Dal (Secular) candidate from Channapatna. Tukaram's wife is the Congress candidate from Sandur and Bommai's son Bharath is the Bharatiya Janata Party's candidate fielded from Shiggaon.

Understandably, this has left the public dejected and the party workers upset, as by-elections are usually used as an opportunity to field new faces and prove anti-incumbency against the existing government in the state. But none of that seems to matter, or at least that is what one can pick up from the chatter in the corridors of the Vidhana Soudha in Bengaluru.

There are three key takeaways from this upcoming elections in Karnataka:

One, family matters. The fact that the likely candidates to win belong to three major political families in the state is a declaration the people of Karnataka and the cadres across the party lines are going to sense and pick up. While both Nikhil and Bharath have gone on to claim that it was 'surveys' and 'requests' from karyakartas and party insiders that led to them being declared as candidates, one knows that it's buffalo dung on a nickel.

The fact is, all the parties could have chosen a candidate from a modest background and a profile that is befitting for the constituency that he/she is going to contest from. But that's not the case. They chose to field Nikhil, Bharath and Annapurna. This was a statement and not merely a choice where they could not put their weight behind new comers.

The Gowda clan's tensions with the DK brothers is a historically well-known fact. For Shivakumar, it is as much a prestige issue as it is for Deve Gowda and Kumaraswamy. If their prodigy fails the test for a record third time, his political future will seem very bleak, and worse, the DK brothers will be emboldened once again and may gain the confidence to raise the deck to become the chief minister.

Three, it is as much a test of anti-incumbency for the Congress as it is a test of the BJP leadership under president B Y Vijayendra. CM Siddaramaiah has been under a litmus test for the last few months, and his chief ministership has been rocked with one controversy after another. From MUDA and Valmiki scam accusations to the effectiveness of the 'guarantee' schemes, much will be tested in the by-elections.

As far as Vijayendra and the BJP are concerned, the former has been struggling to unite a fragmented party with 'camps' and factions. On the other hand, the other set of leaders who are close to different leaders at a state and central level are going to possibly make their moves following the results. If the BJP does not manage to win at least two seats, then there are tough times ahead for the party and its president.

As is, talks of 'match-fixing' are going on. Nikhil is likely to scrape through in Channapatna, with the rebel candidate C P Yogeshwar is likely not to make it. Bharath's victory is almost certain as the Congress has not fielded a strong candidate and instead have given their ticket to a man who has lost not once but twice from the same constituency. As far as Sandur is concerned, Annapurna is likely to emerge victorious as the BJP's Bangaru Hanumanthu lacks the support and experience to pull through.

Although Janardhana Reddy, the miner and former BJP minister is backing him in the mineral-rich constituency. The BJP will try their best to make their candidate win, but Tukaram's hold over the constituency and the Congress deploying heavy-weights to retain the seat is a testament to the fact that they are serious about winning this seat.

The only big shock would be the Congress losing the Sandur seat. Other outcomes are predictable. Very likely, it will be won by one-one-one (BJP-JD(S)-Congress), thereby proving the hunch of the angry voter.