Opinion Trading — A Competitive Game Of Skill

Welcome to 2025, where mobile gaming has become a mainstay for Indian gamers. No longer does one need elaborate gaming desktops, keyboards, and even chairs to demonstrate their skill in the digital world. Users can now compete with a global userbase even via low-end mobile phones. This democratization has created an ever-increasing number of game developers and publishers in India, competing to create the next big game category. One category that appears to have taken the country by storm is ‘opinion trading’, with an increasing number of gaming platforms providing the offering. However, as is with any innovation, the category has seen legal challenges and perception bias. In this article, we breakdown what is the big deal with opinion trading.

What is Opinion Trading

This game resembles a trading platform where participants deal in "positions," functioning similarly to stocks and shares. Users aim to predict whether the value of their position will increase or decrease. For this, the users’ position is tied to a real-life event that they have to form an opinion about in the form of ‘yes’ or ‘no. For example, in an offline match between India and Australia, a user can be asked to take a position on ‘whether India will score 50 runs in the first 5 overs?’. The position of the users’ opinion relies on their analysis of publicly available information, including facts and statistics, to make informed decisions about the event's outcome. Once a user determines their position based on this analysis, they set a price between INR 0.1 and INR 9.9 per position and select the desired quantity to purchase. For example, one can purchase 10 quantities of “no” at a value of INR 2 each, making the total stake INR 20. This pricing and quantity mechanism mirrors that of financial trading, providing users with flexibility in managing their stake.

Notably, these positions operate exclusively on a player-to-player basis, meaning every “yes” position is matched with a corresponding “no” position from another player. This dynamic adds an extra layer of strategy, as players must account for opposing views when analyzing their position. Participants can take multiple positions for the same question, allowing for diverse approaches to maximize returns.

Legal uncertainty or a case of perception bias?

We understand that a public interest litigation has been mounted by public-spirited individuals before the Bombay High Court. We understand that the PIL has questioned whether opinion trading requires any skill, and if not, whether it should be banned in India. A lawyer in the know of the matter provides a contrary position, stating that “the conflation of opinion trading with gambling, due to its speculative nature and resemblance to betting on outcomes has created skepticism about its legitimacy and acceptance as a skill-based activity. It is worth noting that the game is no different from any other games of skill, which are legitimate and have been recognised by the Supreme Court since at least 60 years. The question of whether opinion trading is permissible does not even arise.”

What’s so analytical about opinion trading?

Does data support opinion trading as a skill game?

Short answer, yes. For the long answer, we took help and data insights from a senior executive working at a Nazara-backed opinion trading platform. We learnt that in the world of opinion trading, skilled users understand that real-world events are dynamic and subject to constant changes. They approach each event as a complex puzzle, taking multiple opinion positions rather than betting solely on a singular outcome. This approach stems from their ability to analyze the event in real-time, incorporating new data, trends, and market sentiments. By observing patterns, predicting shifts, and assessing probabilities, skilled players adapt their positions, aiming to spread their risks and maximize potential gains. This ongoing engagement keeps them ahead of the curve, as they pivot their strategies based on the evolving landscape of the event. Much like a chess player anticipates their opponent’s moves, these individuals proactively position themselves to respond to new developments.

The evolution of skilled users in opinion trading mirrors the trajectory seen in games like rummy or fantasy cricket. With each game or event, users refine their strategies, learn from their mistakes, and adapt to new challenges. This iterative process of skill development is fueled by experience, feedback, and constant practice. As per our source, data confirms that over time, users’ decision-making becomes sharper, their ability to anticipate outcomes improves, and their positively growing rate of winning reflects their growing expertise. Just as a rummy player becomes adept at reading cards and anticipating moves, opinion traders hone their analytical and predictive capabilities, transforming their gameplay into a consistent, skill-driven success model.

We also spoke with a user who has been active across multiple opinion trading platforms in India, and shared his insights on the skills commonly used by experienced opinion traders. He states that akin to stock trading, timing is everything in opinion trading. Skilled users are acutely aware that staying in a position until the real-world event concludes may not always yield optimal results. Instead, they recognize that strategic exits—where they close a position at an opportune moment—often result in higher gains or minimized losses. This approach requires careful evaluation of the event's trajectory and the position’s current value. By exiting positions early, they can lock in profits or cut losses when market conditions indicate potential downturns. This strategy is rooted in discipline and foresight, emphasizing that winning is not always about sticking to the end but knowing when to step away. In both opinion trading and stock markets, exits are a cornerstone of success. In opinion trading, exiting a position at the right moment is critical to preserving gains or avoiding losses. In both domains, strategic exits are less about surrender and more about optimization - extracting maximum value from a situation based on available information. This shared approach highlights the importance of adaptability, timing, and strategic thinking in games of skill.

Long story short

While detractors may argue otherwise, it is difficult to refute that opinion trading is essentially a game of skill, where strategy is king. Unlike fantasy where a user submits an 11-member team and leaves the outcome to the real-world sporting match, opinion trading requires rigour from its users. One cannot simply buy and forget; it is essential that a user actively monitors the real-world event and adapts their “stock positions” in response. While the legal battle is at a preliminary stage, it will be interesting to see how courts grapple with data that is skewed in favour of opinion trading, in a manner that is able to ignore the anti-skill gaming rhetoric. For one thing is certain, data never lies.