India's Per Capita GDP To Jump Rs 35,000 In FY25 Despite Advance Estimates Slashing Real GDP Growth To 6.4 Per Cent

Despite a projected slowdown in real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, India’s per capita nominal GDP is anticipated to rise by Rs 35,000 in the Financial Year (FY)25 compared to FY23, according to economists.

The National Statistical Office's (NSO) first advance estimates peg real GDP growth for FY25 at 6.4 per cent, alongside an equivalent Gross Value Added (GVA) growth rate. Nominal GDP growth is expected to remain steady at 9.7 per cent, slightly higher than FY24’s 9.6 per cent.

Dr Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Group Chief Economic Adviser at the State Bank of India, remarked that the NSO’s 6.4 per cent projection aligns with market expectations, though she foresees a slightly lower GDP growth rate of 6.3 per cent for FY25.

Ghosh emphasised that robust policy measures, increased physical and digital public infrastructure, and formalised finance are driving agricultural growth, expected to rise to 3.8 per cent from 1.4 per cent in FY24.

Meanwhile, government consumption is expected to grow 8.5 per cent in nominal terms (4.1 per cent in real terms), supported by strong fiscal measures. Exports are also projected to grow by 8 per cent nominally (5.9 per cent in real terms).

Nikhil Gupta, Chief Economist at MOFSL Group, highlighted a likely revival in consumption and moderation in investments in the second half of FY25.

“Private consumption is expected to grow by 7.8 per cent year-on-year in the second half of FY25 (compared to 6.7 per cent and 4 per cent growth in the first half of FY25 and FY24, respectively),” Gupta said. He also noted a slower total investment growth of 5.8 per cent in H2 FY25, down from earlier highs of 6.5 per cent and 9.4 per cent.

Rajani Sinha, Chief Economist at CareEdge Ratings, emphasised the role of agricultural growth and moderated food inflation in accelerating consumption during FY25. “Sustained consumption growth will also drive private investment,” she added, suggesting an optimistic outlook for the economy's consumption-driven sectors.