Trump’s India Tariff: More About Bruised Ego Than Bad Economics?

On 30 July, US President Donald Trump did what he always does when the world stops catering to his ego. He lashed out.

This time, India was the target. He announced a 25 per cent tariff on Indian imports, slapped on without warning, not through any formal channel but via a hastily drafted post on his ramshackle social media platform, as if he were settling a personal score rather than delivering a major trade decision.

There was no explanation, no context, and certainly no diplomacy. Just the usual Trump cocktail of grievance and bravado, and a vague promise to make America great again.

So what set him off this time? The answer, as always, lies somewhere between politics, insecurity, and pure impulse.

1. The deal didn’t happen and Trump lost patience

The most obvious explanation is that Trump is once again using tariffs as a blunt pressure tactic. The US and India have been negotiating a new bilateral trade agreement for months. Trump had pushed for a deal by August, hoping to showcase it as a win.

But the agreement hasn't materialised, in large part because India has refused to budge on some long-standing US demands.

Among these are wider access to India’s dairy market, reductions in tariffs on medical devices like stents and knee implants, and rules governing cross-border data storage and digital services. These demands have been made by successive US administrations.

India has consistently resisted, citing domestic interests and sovereignty concerns. It seems Trump was unwilling to wait any longer. With the clock ticking and no concessions forthcoming, he chose to go on the offensive.

It’s a classic Trump move. When negotiation stalls, escalate.

2. Slumping approval ratings

But there’s another context here that has less to do with India and more to do with Trump’s standing at home. His approval ratings are sliding, and even his base is starting to show cracks. According to the latest Reuters-Ipsos poll, Trump’s job approval has fallen to 40 per cent, the lowest of his second term. His net approval is now 16 points underwater, with 56 per cent disapproving of his performance.

According to YouGov, nearly 30 per cent of Republicans disapprove of Trump’s handling of the Epstein investigation. This is strikingly high for a base that usually rallies around him.

Trump is acutely aware of perception. He understands the power of appearing strong, decisive, and unrelenting. With inflation still a live political issue and a fractured Republican party to rally, this tariff could be about sending a message to domestic audiences. That message, like in all other cases, is: I’m still tough on trade, I don’t back down, and I don’t play nice with countries that say no.

He has already had to make quiet concessions to China in recent weeks, particularly on technology export rules. Targeting India with a punitive tariff, a country he sees as more reliant on the US than the other way around, is a low-cost way to project strength.

When he signed a trade deal with the European Union, he took pride in claiming that he had forced the bloc to accept terms favourable to the US, whether or not that was actually true. The messaging behind the move against India follows the same playbook.

3. Personal grievance over ceasefire credit?

Then there’s the most Trumpian explanation of all. Some analysts believe this is personal. During Operation Sindoor, when India forced Pakistan to seek a ceasefire, Trump and his team loudly floated the claim that the US President had played a role in de-escalating the situation. India, however, pointedly denied this, attributing the breakthrough entirely to sustained military and diplomatic pressure on Pakistan, not American intervention.

At least one serious analyst has suggested that Trump expected public recognition from Prime Minister Modi, or at the very least, a thank you.

Instead of complying, Indian officials let it be known, with some emphasis, that Trump had played no real role in the outcome. For someone as obsessed with credit and legacy as Trump, that may have cut deeper than expected.

Just days before announcing the tariff, Trump sought to embarrass India by airing unsubstantiated claims that five jets were shot down during the India-Pakistan conflict, fully aware that his words would be seized upon by Pakistan and used by the Indian opposition to attack the government during the debate on Operation Sindoor.

Trump has been known to act out over perceived slights. And the fact that this tariff was announced through his social media platform, where policy, ego, and impulse blur, only strengthens the theory that this may be as much about bruised pride as it is about trade, if not more.