US Crude Oil Shipments to India Plunge 40% in August-September Amid Trump's Pressure on New Delhi

Shipments of crude oil from the United States to India have dropped by an average of 40 per cent in August and September 2025, compared to July levels, according to industry data.

This decline coincides with US President Donald Trump intensifying pressure on India over its energy trade, particularly concerning imports from Russia.

Senior industry officials cited by Business Standard, emphasised that when it comes to oil and gas, "economics trumps politics". The shift comes amid broader efforts by Indian refiners to diversify their supply sources, balancing cost advantages with geopolitical risks.

Provisional vessel tracking data from global analytics provider Kpler shows India's Russian crude imports fell to 1. 60 million barrels per day in September, a 5. 4 per cent decrease from August.

This slight dip occurs as New Delhi navigates US demands to curb flows from Moscow, which are seen as funding Russia's war in Ukraine.

Meanwhile, reports indicate that India's overall oil imports from Russia eased but still accounted for about a third of total shipments.

It is worth noting that earlier in 2025, India's crude oil imports from the US had surged over 50 per cent in the first half of the year. This growth extended to liquefied natural gas and liquefied petroleum gas, highlighting expanding energy ties. However, the recent drop in August and September shipments from the US appears linked to punishing tariffs threatened by Washington over India's continued Russian purchases.

Analysts suggest this could signal a reshuffling of trade routes, with India facing a supply dilemma as global oil prices fluctuate.

President Trump's administration has been vocal in trade negotiations, urging India to reduce reliance on Russian oil.

Despite this, Indian officials maintain that decisions are driven by economic factors, with no meaningful impact yet from US pressure on Russian imports.

Meanwhile India is also exploring diversified energy sources while prioritising price-driven deals. S&P Global forecasts oil prices potentially dropping to $55-60 per barrel next year, though removing Russian oil could alter dynamics.