BJP To Win 305 Seats In 2024 Lok Sabha Elections, Says American Political Analyst Ian Bremmer

On Tuesday (21 May), American political scientist and global political risk consultant Ian Bremmer predicted that the BJP will secure 305 (+/- 10) seats in the 2024 Lok Sabha election in an interview with NDTV Profit.

Bremmer, the founder of the Eurasia Group, a risk and research consulting firm, remarked that from a global political perspective, the Indian general election is "the only thing that looks stable and consistent," while other events, including the upcoming United States election, appear problematic.

Bremmer elaborated on the current geopolitical climate, stating, "We have an enormous amount of macro-level geopolitical uncertainty and the future of globalisation is not going the way companies want it to. Politics is inserting itself into the global marketplace... wars, US-China relations, and the US election are all a big part of that. All of these not being managed well and these pressures are more negative. In fact, the only thing that looks stable and consistent, politically, is the India election. Everything else looks problematic."

When asked about his prediction for the Indian election, which began on 19 April and spans seven phases, Bremmer stated that Eurasia Group's research suggests the BJP will win between 295 and 315 seats. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's party, aiming for a third consecutive term, won 282 seats in the 2014 election (336 with its NDA partners) and 303 seats in the 2019 election (353 with NDA allies).

Bremmer however emphasised that his interest lies not in the exact numbers but in the overall stability of the Indian electoral process.

He stated, "My interest is that of all the elections in the world (which includes polls in the European Union and, possibly, a national election in the United Kingdom) India, which has the largest democracy, has the smoothest transition. There is not a lot of uncertainty about the Indian political system."

He also praised the Indian electoral process as "free and fair, and transparent," adding, "Modi is almost certainly going to win a third term on the back of pretty strong economic performance and consistent reform (and) that, in the grand scheme, is a very stabilising message."

Regarding India's economic future, Bremmer observed, "The world has seen that India has underperformed for decades. India has incredible demographic weight and very strong intellectual capital... so many American CEOs come from India. Yet India, as an economy, underperformed."

"We also see India becoming more powerful in terms of defining its friendship with the rest of the world," he concluded.

Ian Bremmer had earlier presciently predicted Russian premier Vladmir Putin and his 'rogue Russia' as the biggest threats of 2023 and has been co-author of Eurasian Group's annual Top Risks bulletin, a forecast of ten geopolitical risks for the year ahead.